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Yorkshire & Lincolnshire Regional Discussion 15/01/13 18z------>


A.J

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Posted
  • Location: Penistone - NW of Sheff, W of Barnsley - 244m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Sunny Days - Snow - Warm, Dry Days, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Penistone - NW of Sheff, W of Barnsley - 244m asl

looks like i'm off for a stock-up shop tonight before this gets out to the masses, shush!!! everyone! until tomorrow!

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Posted
  • Location: Barnsley 125asl
  • Location: Barnsley 125asl

Over 24cm for some parts of our region according to the GFS

96_35.gif

lower levels could see 15-20cm possibly more with the way things are going

Never seen a red warning issued for snow in this region but there is always a first!

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Posted
  • Location: North lincs
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal weather but love snow
  • Location: North lincs

Bbc weather still showing it clipping this region where as he west of the country gets the full hit. Any chance this could move further east putting us in e firing line?

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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

Bbc weather still showing it clipping this region where as he west of the country gets the full hit. Any chance this could move further east putting us in e firing line?

Probably a bit too early to show the snow crossing the entire country. They'll definitely be very different soon.

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 68m ASL
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 68m ASL

Some impressive icicles forming here as the sun melts the snowcover but temp below freezing. -1.7 at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Skegness,lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Heat thundersnow heatwaves and freezing fog
  • Location: Skegness,lincolnshire

Some impressive icicles forming here as the sun melts the snowcover but temp below freezing. -1.7 at the moment.

yeah same here couple of biggys of the house opposite me :)
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Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn days and foggy nights
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire

A couple of things to remember - it's still early days yet, and with these frontal events it's almost impossible to establish how far east the front will penetrate - the Met O warningsare general guidance, it's entirely possible that the front doesn't get as far east, or gets 60 miles further east than the amber warning indicates. Given that the cold air block isn't well established yet, it wouldn't surprise me if the amber alert isn't extended east at least to include a larger chunk of West Yorkshire, but that may not happen until the event is in progress. Certainly as progged dew points and thicknesses won't be an issue for us.

As for Blizzard conditions - meteorologically defined blizzards are pretty uncommon in lowland England BUT the 06z GFS did suggest the possibility of them over higher ground - parts of the Dales and Pennines. The last genuine blizzard I can remember in my neck of the woods was in '79, so that gives some indication of how unusual they are in lowland england. My mate lived in Upper Teesdale in the early 80's and he had them three winters in a row, so high up, you've more of a chance. There's some talk on the model thread of 'white out' conditions - which I think is a bit Rampy - white outs are blizzards so severe that you can't locate the horizon - I've been in two white outs in my entire life, and one of those was on Antarctica! They are genuinely terrifying!

Edited by Just Before Dawn
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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

Just think, January 5th 2010 it snow from 7 till 3 o clock and brought nearly 30cm in 8 hours, this could be a 24 hour event and blizzard conditions look likely as well and possibly snow into next week!!!

that was a great event but, I recall it affecting NW England too. don't recall the actual set up during that particular event though, not sure if any similarities exist.

Just taken a look at the archives and it appears a low/trough crossed our region from the North Sea, so not the same.

Edited by Aaron
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Posted
  • Location: nr Spalding. South Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: nr Spalding. South Lincolnshire

showing -3.1c here. Cant get too excited about the weekend for my part of Lincolnshire, think we will miss out on the good stuff as usual unless of course that front can penetrate a bit further east

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

It was the coldest January night here since 1987 with a minimum temperature of -6.7C. This was all the more impressive as we didnt have clear skies.

Its still pretty cold today too with sunny spells and a current temperature of -1.2C. We still have a 100% cover of around 5-6cm and it is showing little signs of thawing even in the sun.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Bbc weather still showing it clipping this region where as he west of the country gets the full hit. Any chance this could move further east putting us in e firing line?

The likelyhood is that we will get snow as shown by pretty much all models however the heavy snow will be west of the Pennines.

Just think, January 5th 2010 it snow from 7 till 3 o clock and brought nearly 30cm in 8 hours, this could be a 24 hour event and blizzard conditions look likely as well and possibly snow into next week!!!

At my location it snowed from about 6:15 to 16:15 and gave 21cm (already 8cm on the ground at the time) providing both my biggest single snowfall and highest cumulative depth.

Whilst this event could drag out for 24 hours we are the wrong side of the Pennines even if it stalls for the heaviest snow if everything transpires as predicted now.

That event you refer was a front coming from the north which stalled as a wave developed, this has no wave..

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Posted
  • Location: North lincs
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal weather but love snow
  • Location: North lincs

Well it's all changed in less than 24hrs so I am still holding out it will improve for north lincs and the rest of our region.

EVERYTHING CROSSED

:)

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Well it's all changed in less than 24hrs so I am still holding out it will improve for north lincs and the rest of our region.

EVERYTHING CROSSED

smile.png

If you exclude the 18z which had no precipitation at all then i actually think it's being pretty stable has the output for the last day or two.

Sundays event seems to have disappeared.

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Posted
  • Location: North lincs
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal weather but love snow
  • Location: North lincs

If you exclude the 18z which had no precipitation at all then i actually think it's being pretty stable has the output for the last day or two.

Sundays event seems to have disappeared.

To be honest I was only going by the national forecast by bbc. I'm still a little lost with the different runs and results hey show. :(

Edited by Lincstim
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Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs

showing -3.1c here. Cant get too excited about the weekend for my part of Lincolnshire, think we will miss out on the good stuff as usual unless of course that front can penetrate a bit further east

i with you on this one, i think we will miss out this time
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Posted
  • Location: Loughborough
  • Location: Loughborough

-3 here still, no thaw today whatsoever so still have the majority of snow from sunday/monday on grass and roofs and still some on pavements, looking forward to the end of the week :)

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Posted
  • Location: Boston Lincs
  • Location: Boston Lincs

-3 here still, no thaw today whatsoever so still have the majority of snow from sunday/monday on grass and roofs and still some on pavements, looking forward to the end of the week smile.png

Theres more in Boston than there is in Thurlby [near Bourne] where our depot is.

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Posted
  • Location: Scunny Lincolnshire.41m (134FT)ASL
  • Location: Scunny Lincolnshire.41m (134FT)ASL

Well it's all changed in less than 24hrs so I am still holding out it will improve for north lincs and the rest of our region.

EVERYTHING CROSSED

smile.png

Well the GFS 6Z was a massive upgrade for our area as it shows the PPN reaching our area,so hopefully the 12z won't push the PPN further west.again.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Well the GFS 6Z was a massive upgrade for our area as it shows the PPN reaching our area,so hopefully the 12z won't push the PPN further west.again.

After tonight it will probably be worth dropping the main models and going with the high resolution NMM and NME.

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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

The likelyhood is that we will get snow as shown by pretty much all models however the heavy snow will be west of the Pennines.

At my location it snowed from about 6:15 to 16:15 and gave 21cm (already 8cm on the ground at the time) providing both my biggest single snowfall and highest cumulative depth.

Whilst this event could drag out for 24 hours we are the wrong side of the Pennines even if it stalls for the heaviest snow if everything transpires as predicted now.

That event you refer was a front coming from the north which stalled as a wave developed, this has no wave..

We're still looking at some very healthy totals, whether or not areas west of the Pennines have deeper snow depths. Cannot be picky, snow is snow. It's looking like an England/Wales-wide snow event, possibly affecting Scotland too. If we ended up with 30cm and Manchester had 39cm, I doubt anyone here would be complaining.

Edited by Aaron
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

We're still looking at some very healthy totals, whether or not areas west of the Pennines have deeper snow depths. Cannot be picky, snow is snow. It's looking like an England/Wales-wide snow event, possibly affecting Scotland too. If we ended up with 30cm and Manchester had 39cm, I doubt anyone here would be complaining.

Oh yes, the fact that the temperature is forecast to be -3C on arrival will mean that we have a bigger chance of maximizing every drop of snow than normal and so i agree with the Met Office of 10cm being widespread however because we are east of the Pennines i'm simply saying that we won't be seeing 20cm+ east of the Pennines.

Personally i'm more interested in the fact that we have wind forecast for once. Do you remember the last snow event with good windspeeds because i'm struggling to.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I doubt we will get that even in the hillier locations on the eastern side of the Peak/Pennines. That said 20+cm in a distinct possibility but it would be hard to measure if the temperatures at height remain below zero C with the wind blowing it about.

Remember that predicting rain 24 hours ahead is wrong at times, top that with 7 other variables and it gets much trickier, amounts are best left to work out only 18 hours ahead in my view. By that time you will have Net Wx NMM and UK Met NAE for comparisions.

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