Far North of England Regional - Cold Spell Discussion 15/01/13 12z onwards

[Dom W]

Just had some light to moderate snow in Peterlee area just there now.

[NickR]

We're never going to get the most in the country when its travelling up from the South West, has the most land to cross before it reaches us. We ideally want it more tilted West so it only has to cross the Pennines, rather than the whole of England.

Would be pretty galling to miss out on such an event pretty much altogether though!

[Andy_]

Would be pretty galling to miss out on such an event pretty much altogether though!

Haha I very much doubt we'll miss out altogether, it's too big of a system to miss us really.

[NickR]

Haha I very much doubt we'll miss out altogether, it's too big of a system to miss us really.

12 hours of snow/ 20-30cms and we get an hour and 2-3cms?... I call that missing us to all intents and purposes.

[Andy_]

12 hours of snow/ 20-30cms and we get an hour and 2-3cms?... I call that missing us to all intents and purposes.

How do you know we're only going to get 2-3cms though its still 3 days away, more runs needed!

[NickR]

How do you know we're only going to get 2-3cms though its still 3 days away, more runs needed!

Just commenting on the 12z, which looks plausible.

What is the UKMO showing?

[Snowmaggedon]

It's too early to be writing off a significant snow event this weekend on A Tuesday, we've witnessed ourselves today that it's very difficult to forecast snow in advance

[Dandy]

Will take a peep tomorrow, we might just miss this ! (might)

[Isolated Frost]

UKMO a bit further south and east on the 120-

That is a snowy chart.

There is a very fine line when it comes to events like this, I wouldn't mind just staying in the cold air and getting some good snow shrs/edge the band so we have snow lying for a week!

[NickR]

UKMO a bit further south and east on the 120-

That is a snowy chart.

There is a very fine line when it comes to events like this, I wouldn't mind just staying in the cold air and getting some good snow shrs/edge the band so we have snow lying for a week!

Snowy for us?

[Andy_]

Just commenting on the 12z, which looks plausible.

What is the UKMO showing?

I don't know about precipitation from the front, but it looks good for convection on Friday at least

Edited January 15, 2013 by Andy.

[Isolated Frost]

Snowy for us?

Yep.

[gazzac69]

light snow just started here

[tynevalleysnow]

Just been to consett for shopping. Plenty of snow about between here and there. All the talk is for snow in the sw but I'd rather not get snow from the west like yesterday. Much better when it comes from the east like last night and today and dec 2010. Local met forecast for prudhie has snow most of friday and saturday so who knows.

[NickR]

I'll be honest I'm feeling kinda down about these charts... just seems to me like the bulk of the country will have a once in a generation event and we'll miss it largely.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2013/01/15/basis12/ukuk/weas/13012118_2_1512.gif

[Geordiesnow]

I'll be honest I'm feeling kinda down about these charts... just seems to me like the bulk of the country will have a once in a generation event and we'll miss it largely.

http://expert-images...2118_2_1512.gif

On a selfish POV, I hope it does edge further North and East although there would be a risk of things turning marginal, I would not mind southern areas getting snow if it means we get a undercut but at this stage, that looks unlikely.

Just hope we get some eastwards movement in the next few runs and for the eastern bias to perhaps come into play but at this stage I would say the front actually reaching us is only 50% at the moment.

[NickR]

On a selfish POV, I hope it does edge further North and East although there would be a risk of things turning marginal, I would not mind southern areas getting snow if it means we get a undercut but at this stage, that looks unlikely.

Just hope we get some eastwards movement in the next few runs and for the eastern bias to perhaps come into play but at this stage I would say the front actually reaching us is only 50% at the moment.

In other words, you think it is likely that this will be a case of much of the country getting a major event while we settle for flurries here and there?

[Alex95]

the 12z GFS would give us heavy convective snowfalls early next week, and the further south/west the weekend snow gets pushed, the more chances there are for this. Its rare for the NE to do well from frontal snow, so we might be better off hoping for another spell of North Sea snow showers, and hopefully a more prolonged spell than today.

In other words, you think it is likely that this will be a case of much of the country getting a major event while we settle for flurries here and there?

November/December 2010 was nearly all convective snowfalls, but I wouldn't call it 'a few flurries here and there'! I think the North Sea is a better chance than a low from the south.

Edited January 15, 2013 by Alza

[NickR]

the 12z GFS would give us heavy convective snowfalls early next week, and the further south/west the weekend snow gets pushed, the more chances there are for this. Its rare for the NE to do well from frontal snow, so we might be better off hoping for another spell of North Sea snow showers, and hopefully a more prolonged spell than today.

Which models have the trough slipping further S like the GEM? That would surely give us very good convection... don't these lows tend to end up further south than modelled at a few days out?

Edited January 15, 2013 by NickR

[Alex95]

Which models have the trough slipping further S like the GEM? That would surely give us very good convection... don't these lows tend to end up further south than modelled at a few days out?

I've just had a look at the GEM, and it doesn't look that great? Probably me being thick, is it the 00z you were looking at? The GFS would bring some heavy convection early next week, and almost does on Friday/Saturday this week. the UKMO looks snowy on Saturday at least. There does seem to be a tendency to shift things south nearer the time - this usually ruins an easterly (such as this week, actually, we've ended up with a one day wonder), but this time it might just bring one in at the weekend.

We shall see, but I'm expecting more of an easterly component to be shown in the coming days, and the front to be moved further south. I hope I'm right as that would be far better than being in the dry area to the north of a blizzard.

The North Sea is waking up now - looks like this little convective spell isn't done yet.

Edited January 15, 2013 by Alza

[Geordiesnow]

the 12z GFS would give us heavy convective snowfalls early next week, and the further south/west the weekend snow gets pushed, the more chances there are for this. Its rare for the NE to do well from frontal snow, so we might be better off hoping for another spell of North Sea snow showers, and hopefully a more prolonged spell than today.

I think we don't do too badly from frontal snowfall in some events to be fair, and this one for Friday is one if it comes up from the right angle we could do well from but at this stage the front does not look like reaching us and the convective ESE'ly looks very brief so I'm with Nick, I would rather have the front over us personally.

Also any ESE'ly is quite brief and there be alot of frontal cloud so selfishly lets hope the front is modeled further North and East.

[Isolated Frost]

This is a superb chart Alza ^

UKMO and GFS output v similar, just the odd shift here and there- ECMWF output should gauge the opinion and split them- the GEM gives a very interesting alternate option

[Alex95]

This is a superb chart Alza ^

UKMO and GFS output v similar, just the odd shift here and there- ECMWF output should gauge the opinion and split them- the GEM gives a very interesting alternate option

That is pretty much the ideal scenario for this weekend, in my opinion of course. I was still looking at the 00z over on wetterzentrale.

Well maybe an ideal scenario would have tighter isobars, but its close.

Edited January 15, 2013 by Alza

[Andy_]

Temperatures are widely around 0C around the region, so any snow cover should stick around now in theory, temperatures the next couple days aren't forecast to get above freezing remarkably!

I'd expect to see icicles forming as direct sunlight melts snow and refreezes it

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/newcastle-upon-tyne#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1358208000

[Summer Sun]

The North Sea is waking up now - looks like this little convective spell isn't done yet.

Local BBC forecast is going for further snow early tomorrow morning but could we see some more tonight?