Scotland Regional Discussion - January 14th 2013>

[Norrance]

Thanks for the figure Norrance, LS, SS.

OK, we had a mild first week in January but even putting aside the ongoing snow let-downs (in general..and some lucky punters have done OK-ish the last 2-3 days), the general outlook for the remainder of January appears at least rather cold.

Just wondering if its going to be one of these winters that comes in below average up here but possibly without any snow/ice winter events to make it memorable in years to come.

Personally I'd opt for an average or just above-average winter that at least has something to remember it by. Didn't 2009/10 come into that category or did December skew the whole winter to just below average ?

2009/10 was well below average. 10/11 ended up just below thanks to December and [a bit] early January.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Thanks for the figure Norrance, LS, SS.

OK, we had a mild first week in January but even putting aside the ongoing snow let-downs (in general..and some lucky punters have done OK-ish the last 2-3 days), the general outlook for the remainder of January appears at least rather cold.

Just wondering if its going to be one of these winters that comes in below average up here but possibly without any snow/ice winter events to make it memorable in years to come.

Personally I'd opt for an average or just above-average winter that at least has something to remember it by. Didn't 2009/10 come into that category or did December skew the whole winter to just below average ?

2009/10 ended up the second coldest in the record, I believe, after a non-descript but cold second half of January and February outside of the big easterly sleet/snowfall that all ended up going to Catch's house.

Actually, did you mean 2010/11? It came out very slightly below the average.

I think we've got a good shot of seeing something memorable even within the next week actually, and with the signal for the vortex to drop into Scandinavia towards the end of the month I'd be pretty amazed if we didn't see at least one memorable snowfall.

[Northernlights]

We have a covering of frozen snow on grass and roofs with a temperature of 1.2c.

Been telling the family that in spite of recent colder winters they have not experienced a true blizzard with strong to gale force winds and heavy snow and 0c or lower

The last one here with major drifts up to 9 feet deep burying the windows at the front of the house and a snowblower being used to cut through 6 foot deep snow on the local side roads I remember was December 1973 and I travelled home from Crieff a few days later later after the event (almost no snow in this area ) in these conditions as I had been on a college placement on a farm there .Tom SE20 produced the archive charts for this a few years back.

Will something like this get anywhere near us this coming weekend? I wonder how everyone would cope with something like this now. Not many snowblowers around now.

Edited January 14, 2013 by Northernlights

[Sunny Leith]

Doh! Yes I meant 2010/11...

Actually I'm talking shoite anyway, easily a couple of months to go in which memorable winter events could happen. Just put it down to a mini-TOORP probably brought on by the UK media declaring something approximating to a national state of emergency today. Absurd.

2009/10 ended up the second coldest in the record, I believe, after a non-descript but cold second half of January and February outside of the big easterly sleet/snowfall that all ended up going to Catch's house.

Actually, did you mean 2010/11? It came out very slightly below the average.

I think we've got a good shot of seeing something memorable even within the next week actually, and with the signal for the vortex to drop into Scandinavia towards the end of the month I'd be pretty amazed if we didn't see at least one memorable snowfall.

Edited January 14, 2013 by by-tor

[LomondSnowstorm]

We have a covering of frozen snow on grass and roofs with a temperature of 1.2c.

Been telling the family that in spite of recent colder winters they have not experienced a true blizzard with strong to gale force winds and heavy snow and 0c or lower

The last one with major drifts up to 9 feet deep burying the windows at the front of the house and a snowblower being used to cut through 6 foot deep snow on the local side roads I remember was December 1973 and I travelled home from Crieff a few days later laterafter the event (almost no snow in this area ) in these conditions as I had been on a college placement on a farm there .Tom SE20 produced the archive charts for this a few years back.

Will something like this get anywhere near us this coming weekend? I wonder how everyone would cope with something like this now. Not many snowblowers around now.

Impossible to say, but I think the probability of a sub zero blizzard occuring is certainly much higher than average with charts like these around:

What is key is that we have surface cold embedded, and that will come over the next few days, so when fronts do arrive the uppers away from windward coasts only need to be around -1/-2C for snow to fall. If the wind is southerly uppers would probably only need to be just sub 0C for snowfall but for ESErlies it needs to be below -4C for most, -6/-8C for inland eastern parts (both of which are satisfied in most of the above charts anyway).

Edited January 14, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[jon_d1983]

Whats the chance of Aberdeen(shire) areas seeing some snow tonight?

[A Winter's Tale]

Doh! Yes I meant 2010/11...

probably brought on by the UK media declaring something approximating to a national state of emergency today. Absurd.

The news has been laughable today. They were fainting over a terrifying inch of snow and black tarmac on the roads. Met office issued level 3 cold warning - just one level under national emergency - and there are guides about how to drive in the snow. It really is a joke - if this is close to an emergency then I'd dread to imagine what sort of level or category it would be if England was hit by a winter as long and harsh as 1963 and with snowfalls as potent as 1987. A '6th December 2010' event in the south east would come under the end of days of category - BBC and Sky news coverage would be stunning.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Having reanalysed the charts, this band was never actually predicted to get inland. The real threat is in fact still to the north and northeast and will start to affect central areas around 10pm to midnight, first through this band sinking across the Highlands and secondly from the remains of the front to the northeast collapsing southwestwards again, with convective showers in behind.

That band seems to be re-emerging just north of Stirling while convection is pepping up out in the North Sea, along with a more organised band set to hit the east coast. Aberdeenshire may initially bear the brunt of that but it's likely that the snow risk will continue to move southwards as the night goes on.

[BurntFishTrousers]

That band seems to be re-emerging just north of Stirling while convection is pepping up out in the North Sea, along with a more organised band set to hit the east coast. Aberdeenshire may initially bear the brunt of that but it's likely that the snow risk will continue to move southwards as the night goes on.

Good spot, just south of it - will update if anything!

[Penicuikblizzard]

Cannot see any snow in the forecast for the weekend, I dont expect any blizzards the charts will back down near the time as they always do!!

I reckon it will be raw at the weekend with strong winds and cold rain!!

Plus no early warnings or even mentions from Meto

[Sunny Leith]

Ach well, its always been that way ! My first job was in London, went down in 1986 and was there in the memorable January 1987 coldspell. Pipes in the flat froze overnight, ice flows floating down The Thames where I worked in Richmond. But even on the snowiest day I made it into work, to find only 1 other person out of about 15 people or so. Bit of a farce given that most of them could have got the tube like me but any excuse ... "duvet days"

The news has been laughable today. They were fainting over a terrifying inch of snow and black tarmac on the roads. Met office issued level 3 cold warning - just one level under national emergency - and there are guides about how to drive in the snow. It really is a joke - if this is close to an emergency then I'd dread to imagine what sort of level or category it would be if England was hit by a winter as long and harsh as 1963 and with snowfalls as potent as 1987. A '6th December 2010' event in the south east would come under the end of days of category - BBC and Sky news coverage would be stunning.

[Buriedundersnow]

light snow falling in falkirk only just a dusting though

[BurntFishTrousers]

The most pathetic dusting of snow ever has occurred, BUT it's snow!

[BurntFishTrousers]

Plus no early warnings or even mentions from Meto

To be expected given they are notoriously poor at forecasting snow.

[LomondSnowstorm]

To be expected given they are notoriously poor at forecasting snow.

And also, the weekend is still outwith the five day range. Even if their warning system was amazing, they're not psychic.

[A Winter's Tale]

That band seems to be re-emerging just north of Stirling while convection is pepping up out in the North Sea, along with a more organised band set to hit the east coast. Aberdeenshire may initially bear the brunt of that but it's likely that the snow risk will continue to move southwards as the night goes on.

Currently in Bearsden but I wonder if Torrance might just get a little bit of snow out the precipitation north of the Campsies - anything else later tonight would be a bonus.

[Hairy Celt]

The most pathetic dusting of snow ever has occurred, BUT it's snow!

Cool. Looks like it's just your old fruitcake up north without now. Looking at NMM, it seems to suggest showers coming in from the Moray Firth tonight but resolutely refuses to dot any on to the Black Isle, which is a wee bit odd since that's usually the favoured direction to get a pasting from.

[BurntFishTrousers]

Aberdeen / Peterhead could be in for a pasting soon.

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

[edo]

Cannot see any snow in the forecast for the weekend, I dont expect any blizzards the charts will back down near the time as they always do!!

I reckon it will be raw at the weekend with strong winds and cold rain!!

Plus no early warnings or even mentions from Meto

going for reverse pyschology here?

Its beginning to sound a lot like christmas the MT

No doubt they wont verify to the severity currently but still potential and thats better than nothing showing.....if we never thought any charts would verify why even bother looking?? Its no exact science but we can look at trends and all models in their own way show potential events this weekend

[jon_d1983]

Looks like I may see we more snow afterall if that appears later on.

[November13]

Wee flurries here nothing special!

[Buriedundersnow]

GFS still not up for changing its mind and following the ECM towards the UKMO just really hope the GFS has got that atlantic LP totally wrong the way it removes all the cold uppers as that would just knock us right back to sqaure one again and dont think i can sit through all this for a third time waiting to see if we can get the cold air in and keep it

[LomondSnowstorm]

Anyone order a sub 0C blizzard?

[NUT]

A tiny dusting of snow here. Not much but it's something

[shuggee]

Anybody else noticing a sudden ballooning of shower activity in the last forty minutes heading westwards off the N Sea towards the length of the Scottish east coast?!