North West England Regional Discussion 14/01/13, 12z Onwards

[Snow free zone]

Seen a few comments about 1947 was that a cold winter ? and ramp what is the arpege i saw IF mention it in the model thread earlier.

[The Northern Ramper]

Is that so? What model is the ARPEGE and where can one see it please?

On another note, the precip band looks to be pivoting over Northumbria at the moment. I wonder if this might bring some snow back west later this eve?

Cheers

It's a model that the UKMO use that's not available to the public, my post was pasting Ian Ferguson's from the model thread.

I have been watching that in the northeast, it looks to be heading our way however i am sure the pennines will kill it off.

[itsnowjoke]

It's a model that the UKMO use that's not available to the public, my post was pasting Ian Ferguson's from the model thread.

I have been watching that in the northeast, it looks to be heading our way however i am sure the pennines will kill it off.

yes that will be right

[itsnowjoke]

Diane the mild ramper talking about snow, you can tell it hurts her.

probably someone in the past has made her eat yellow snow.

[iand61]

Just posted in the model thread;

You see even those in the snowless west build up some snow coverage Although I think this is in the best case scenario and if all the undercutting happens and favourably so.

From an IMBY point of view I hope that it does verify.

Being in the vicinity of 34 cm of snow would do for me.

It's certainly a plausible outcome as the Atlantic tries to make inroads but TBH. I can't see it going out with a bang but rather with the whimper which seems to be the norm these days.

[The Northern Ramper]

From an IMBY point of view I hope that it does verify.

Being in the vicinity of 34 cm of snow would do for me.

It's certainly a plausible outcome as the Atlantic tries to make inroads but TBH. I can't see it going out with a bang but rather with the whimper which seems to be the norm these days.

Now you see normally i would agree with you however it is the angle of attack from the models which makes me think this will be different.

I am trying not to ramp as yet but the only way i see us not getting snow this weekend is it going too far south for us, although this would most probably strengthen an easterly flow and entrench the cold even more for the next assault.

[iand61]

Now you see normally i would agree with you however it is the angle of attack from the models which makes me think this will be different.

I am trying not to ramp as yet but the only way i see us not getting snow this weekend is it going too far south for us, although this would most probably strengthen an easterly flow and entrench the cold even more for the next assault.

Yes it certainly seems to be heading towards an snowy period for someone, maybe a major dumping and we could just be in the firing line.

I just feel though that your thoughts on it going to far south to give us an invite to the snow party may turn out to be the correct call as, under a southerly tracking jet, low pressure systems tend to continuously edge further south.

On a more positive note though, we are entering a reliable time scale now so chances of a major backtrack are diminishing.

Hopefully it is our chance to be the centre of attention although I'm happy to share with others so long as they don't take the lions share.

[Stephen_Mcr]

Now you see normally i would agree with you however it is the angle of attack from the models which makes me think this will be different.

I am trying not to ramp as yet but the only way i see us not getting snow this weekend is it going too far south for us, although this would most probably strengthen an easterly flow and entrench the cold even more for the next assault.

It does look incredibly interesting, more models coming on board with the idea since UKMO did, which to be honest I dismissed. Still plenty of time to go, still in FI and still can change slightly to not bring anything.

After being disappointed at yesterday's showing its something that i'll watch feverishly, but contain the excitement until its here!

[pip22]

Lol ireland is getting a soaking from rain on wednesday. While were gonna get snow on Thursday evening I think. if its rain in wales then it is game over. It probably will anyway.

Edited January 14, 2013 by Fresh_Prince_Of_Leyland

[Convective]

Lightning here! 2 flashes and deep thunder south of me. Beefy hail shower!

[SparkleS]

Well ive just seen one cloud rolling along the nights starry sky!! Lol

[The Northern Ramper]

Yes it certainly seems to be heading towards an snowy period for someone, maybe a major dumping and we could just be in the firing line.

I just feel though that your thoughts on it going to far south to give us an invite to the snow party may turn out to be the correct call as, under a southerly tracking jet, low pressure systems tend to continuously edge further south.

On a more positive note though, we are entering a reliable time scale now so chances of a major backtrack are diminishing.

Hopefully it is our chance to be the centre of attention although I'm happy to share with others so long as they don't take the lions share.

I have seen this many times over the years however not usually from this angle. The attack usually comes from the South West and as it gets nearer to the block it tends to go further south rather than hit it head on., This angle feels more favourable as it is already being modelled to avoid the block which leads it straight over us.

[Backtrack]

Lol ireland is getting a soaking from rain on wednesday. While were gonna get snow on Thursday evening I think. if its rain in wales then it is game over. It probably will anyway.

That post made no sense mate, lol. If you look on the GFS/ECM you'll see the boundary line between the -5/-6C 850hpa upper temperatures. The line is clearly over eastern Wales, so it's likely they'll get rain anyway. Just because it rains in one place close, it certainly doesn't mean it'll be game over here.

As we saw last night, 5-10 miles can make a massive difference.

[Rnewbs]

Any chance of this making its way across the Pennines?

[Convective]

Is there much chance of snow for the Isle of Man for the coming days?

[SP1986]

This is the band that gave us heavy rain over Holland now.. insane..

http://www.webcamvlissingen.nl/

[Stephen_Mcr]

Any chance of this making its way across the Pennines?

Was looking at that earlier, wouldn't trust the forecast on that radar though, It just moves it on.... it'll probably fizzle out as soon as it hits the Pennines. Not much tends to make it across.

[Rnewbs]

Was looking at that earlier, wouldn't trust the forecast on that radar though, It just moves it on.... it'll probably fizzle out as soon as it hits the Pennines. Not much tends to make it across.

Ah damn, I'm trying to remember some dates where we have gotten significant accumulations from systems coming from the east.

[pip22]

This is the band that gave us heavy rain over Holland now.. insane..

http://www.webcamvlissingen.nl/

this gives me memories when I travel on a ship to Sweden and It was exactly like this at sea. So happy memories. Edited January 14, 2013 by Fresh_Prince_Of_Leyland

[The Northern Ramper]

Ah damn, I'm trying to remember some dates where we have gotten significant accumulations from systems coming from the east.

There needs to be a stronger wind to get them across with anything of note left.

[pip22]

Ah damn, I'm trying to remember some dates where we have gotten significant accumulations from systems coming from the east.

perhaps november 30th 2010 maybe?

Edited January 14, 2013 by Fresh_Prince_Of_Leyland

[Darren Bown]

Any chance of this making its way across the Pennines?

I don't know where the radar gets that from, it's quite fragmented in the east now. To have that stuff over Wales here could have been fun though!

Definitely looks like it'll be later on this week for anything possibly substantial.

[pip22]

Any chance of this making its way across the Pennines?

tbh I think it may bring just a light snow flurry or two just make it across tonight. If the winds are strong enough. other words not really a big deal. Edited January 14, 2013 by Fresh_Prince_Of_Leyland

[SnowObsessor90]

Does anyone why the temperature is holding so steady round these parts? It seems to have been stuck at 2.3 c for ages now.

Edited January 14, 2013 by SnowObsessor90

[iand61]

Ah damn, I'm trying to remember some dates where we have gotten significant accumulations from systems coming from the east.

Not many occasions where an easterly has given substantial and widespread snow to the NW region.

Late Nov/ early Dec 2010 gave us some snow, before that we,re probably looking back to the 1990's.

I can do well from an easterly due to sitting on the edge of the Pennines and as far eastwards as is possible in our region.

Altitude is also on my side but even with all of this it still takes a potent feed or troughs to give anything more than a covering.