South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 14/01/13, 12z onwards

[Lynxus]

Infact from Friday,

It looks like it pretty much dilutes all of our slightly cool air and turns it even warmer

[AWD]

UKMO says YES.

Regarding the GFS, this is the most progressive model and it still gives us 24 hours of snowfall/cover.

Might not be what everybody wants, but with the way this winter is going regarding snowfall, I'm more than happy with that.

[gottolovethisweather]

looks like the AZ High is popping over to the eastern seaboard to say hello.............

EVEN BETTER.

If I had to pick holes in these impresseive runs, I would say the Azores high isn't helping. It stops us from getting the coldest of uppers to our shores, so I would be glad to see it go.

Edited January 14, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Mapantz]

12Z is an absolute beaut! At 96 hours there's uppers of -4°C in Devon and -8°C to 10°C as you move in to Dorset and East. I'm not counting any chicken-licken's yet but it's probably the best eye candy i have seen for years regarding snow potential down here.

[karlos1983]

EVEN BETTER.

If I had to pick holes in these impresseive runs, I would say the Azores high isn't helping, in getting the coldest of uppers to our shores, so I would be glad to see it go.

I'm always happy to see the back of that thing........unless I'm in the Azores on Holiday of course....

[jessandjon]

We just got mentioned in the MOD thread. I feel special.

I saw that too!!!! :-)

[124alex]

Anyone that wanted to know what a slider low was

From Matt Hugo

Edited January 14, 2013 by 124alex

[kumquat]

UKMO at T+96 looks very similar to GFS. Bring it on!

Edited January 14, 2013 by kumquat

[Iceberg]

I think people need to think about the longer term re wed onwards.

We get the first low which doesnt breakdown, a second that does, the potential largest snowfall for the west for quite a few years. Yes there is a mild sector breaking down the block, but we still have blocking to the north and cold air under some cold zonality from the west.

[katemart]

This is the feature i believe that could give some precip 1-4cm across parts of our region tonight occuring to 12z nae.

You can see the slight kink in the isobars and a small area of 95% RH at 925.

NAE progs the feature to stay good as it moves down via the isobars direction, GFS phases it out, so worth watching on radar ever few hours to see what its doing.

Some good shower activity before that which would indicate there isnt too much of a cap on the convection.

Wet bulb falling now, should fall by 50m every hr between now an 9pm getting down to 150-200m for some however precip will drag this down to 50-100 if its heavy enough.

Still on for thurs/fri imho.

BTW i didnt get a sausage, bit still lots of chances..

Yes, I'm watching that with interest too, Iceberg. Don't think it will be cold enough to bring anything more than rain when the first line of showers hit, but they just look to keep popping up north of Scotland so maybe later in the night.... http://www.southampt...k/rainradar.php

Sorry you didn't get anything from last night. I'm feeling short changed as well because the "snow" here was like an ounce of grauple. Really hope Friday comes off for everybody.

Edited January 14, 2013 by katemart

[A.J]

A few in here are guilty of righting off scenarios before they even happen!. Please try to post constructively, with a least a hint of positivity....Thanks

[124alex]

I think people need to think about the longer term re wed onwards.

We get the first low which doesnt breakdown, a second that does, the potential largest snowfall for the west for quite a few years. Yes there is a mild sector breaking down the block, but we still have blocking to the north and cold air under some cold zonality from the west.

if it was to come off, in terms of snowfall how much would we get?

[gottolovethisweather]

This is the feature i believe that could give some precip 1-4cm across parts of our region tonight occuring to 12z nae.

You can see the slight kink in the isobars and a small area of 95% RH at 925.

NAE progs the feature to stay good as it moves down via the isobars direction, GFS phases it out, so worth watching on radar ever few hours to see what its doing.

Some good shower activity before that which would indicate there isnt too much of a cap on the convection.

Wet bulb falling now, should fall by 50m every hr between now an 9pm getting down to 150-200m for some however precip will drag this down to 50-100 if its heavy enough.

Still on for thurs/fri imho.

BTW i didnt get a sausage, bit still lots of chances..

Fascinating info there Iceberg, many thanks. fergies post from earlier kind of suggests the same..

Edited January 14, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Nights King]

This is the feature i believe that could give some precip 1-4cm across parts of our region tonight occuring to 12z nae.

You can see the slight kink in the isobars and a small area of 95% RH at 925.

NAE progs the feature to stay good as it moves down via the isobars direction, GFS phases it out, so worth watching on radar ever few hours to see what its doing.

Some good shower activity before that which would indicate there isnt too much of a cap on the convection.

Wet bulb falling now, should fall by 50m every hr between now an 9pm getting down to 150-200m for some however precip will drag this down to 50-100 if its heavy enough.

Still on for thurs/fri imho.

BTW i didnt get a sausage, bit still lots of chances..

Thanks iceberg thats interesting for evening viewing while slurping back my cider

Lets focus on this more than friday as it is in the reliable currently. I do think it will be more of a west somerset westwards feature although met office have me down for a little light snow from mid night tonight.

[TwisterGirl81]

Ooohhh I hope Friday happens, it looks great!!

[karlos1983]

Just to note the difference between the UKMO 850's and GFS 850's at +72, nice difference for say somebody living in Cornwall

GFS +72

UKMO +72

[124alex]

Thanks iceberg thats interesting for evening viewing while slurping back my cider

Lets focus on this more than friday as it is in the reliable currently. I do think it will be more of a west somerset westwards feature although met office have me down for a little light snow from mid night tonight.

heavy rain down for me tonight!

[gottolovethisweather]

UKMO says YES.

Regarding the GFS, this is the most progressive model and it still gives us 24 hours of snowfall/cover.

Might not be what everybody wants, but with the way this winter is going regarding snowfall, I'm more than happy with that.

Yes. somewhere between hype and expectation, that would be just about a perfect scenario for a whole lot of folk.

[Frosty_wsm]

What a great set of charts for Friday, were still on track for a notable snowfall imo, plus the track of the lp isn't going to be spot on, don't be surprised at all to see things shifted further south between now and then which is all good news for us.

[Karl83]

Agreed,

The cold gets washed away very quickly

Lets not worry about that. Remember how GFS was a few days ago. :-)

[latitude]

Agreed,

The cold gets washed away very quickly

Yes thats the GFS though.

[Lynxus]

Yes thats the GFS though.

Can someone please pass me some straws? I need someone thing clutch

I honestly , would love to believe these models, but when they show a very touch and go situation even this far out. It worry's me considering "Nailed on" events also come to not much 90% of the time.

Please be the good 10%

[chris55]

Plenty of showers over Wales heading our way, snow possible in the heavy showers and as Ian says, settling above 200m.

[Iceberg]

Gfs really goes on to show the benefit on the Azores buggering off and the blocking further north.

Systems on the jet drag in the colder if really easily and even in the south west we get loads of chances see t240 for such a chance.

I am not in anyway suggesting it will come off like that but it does show that a breakdown doesn't have to be for weeks and the models are generally only showing a breakdown of a few days.

[124alex]

if only hmmm.