South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 14/01/13, 12z onwards

[sandhurst-smoker]

We got a good accumulation on the cars this morning when I got up! Lots of lovely, very fluffy snow. I've not known snow to be that fluffy before The trees looked beautiful on my drive to work.

Then we had a period of snizzle (love that word) before lots more big lovely flakes which fell for a couple of hours! Very pretty to watch.

Very little has settled though. Pavements and roads just wet.

It is currently 1.6c now with a DP of 1c and Wet Bulb 1.3c (would love to know what that means )

Rain lol

may be few wintery showers around this evening but need the temps and dp to drop before that arrives or we will see more of the rain stuff:(

Edited January 14, 2013 by sandhurst-smoker

[gottolovethisweather]

We got a good accumulation on the cars this morning when I got up! Lots of lovely, very fluffy snow. I've not known snow to be that fluffy before The trees looked beautiful on my drive to work.

Then we had a period of snizzle (love that word) before lots more big lovely flakes which fell for a couple of hours! Very pretty to watch.

Very little has settled though. Pavements and roads just wet.

It is currently 1.6c now with a DP of 1c and Wet Bulb 1.3c (would love to know what that means )

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature

[Beast of Plympton]

Raining again. I think I am going to convert to liking rain instead, that way I can guarantee I will NEVER be disappointed!!

Edited January 14, 2013 by Beast of Dartmoor

[gottolovethisweather]

Raining again. I think I am going to convert to liking rain instead, that way I can guarantee I will NEVER be disappointed!!

Aren't you used to it yet after 2012s bit of drizzle, ahem!

[124alex]

Raining again. I think I am going to convert to liking rain instead, that way I can guarantee I will NEVER be disappointed!!

if only this rain was snow

[gottolovethisweather]

if only this rain was snow

[124alex]

then the SE would be jealous..

[Beast of Plympton]

Aren't you used to it yet after 2012s bit of drizzle, ahem!

Yeah, I seem to remember there was a spot of drizzle in 2012, created a few puddles from what I can remember as well!! I am just cluthcing onto the eluvation straw and hope that has some sort of affect!!

if only this rain was snow

We can only dream Alex.

[Sungirl]

Thanks for the info on DP and WBs - I love how the people in our area of the forum are friendly and helpful

[gottolovethisweather]

Yeah, I seem to remember there was a spot of drizzle in 2012, created a few puddles from what I can remember as well!! I am just cluthcing onto the eluvation straw and hope that has some sort of affect!!

We can only dream Alex.

And without dreams, we'd have only nightmares.

Plenty of swings and roundabouts, jigsaw puzzles or even see-saws to come yet too.

Edited January 14, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[westysweather]

I think so but not 100%... it could also be a LOW pressure that slides under the cold air - high pressure. Maybe someone could be of more help than i am!

yes thats my idea of what one is, glad im not alone..... any advance on this would be good if were wrong?

[gottolovethisweather]

Thanks for the info on DP and WBs - I love how the people in our area of the forum are friendly and helpful

Well I for one, am too old (40 years and showing it) to be a misery guts.

Edited January 14, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Wilxy]

Well its turning to a clear sunny afternoon, better than cloudy dull cold weather.

[karlos1983]

Courtesy, on request, of Gavin in the Model Discussion,

"That's correct Mr weatherman, I would like to Bank this immediately please."

Gavin.

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Posted A minute ago

karlos1983, on 14 January 2013 - 14:47 , said:

Do you have a similar chart for Friday/Saturday

18z Friday

18z Saturday

[Nights King]

If any ppn makes it accross wales tonight it will be mainly ligy and patchy like last nights I expect although moors of the extreme west might pick up some better showers by look of things.

Not going to get excited about fridays until wed/thursday at the earliest its just too far out to take seriously.

[Lynxus]

Looks like the chances for the weekend are dwindling already then with rain on sat /sun and milder uppers.

I can only hope that the 15:30 shows some major upgrade for this cooler air to hang around.

[gottolovethisweather]

yes thats my idea of what one is, glad im not alone..... any advance on this would be good if were wrong?

AWD can probably help you on that one but my take on it is that an undercutter is what we want.

An undercutting low would be a surface feature around the High Pressure, to its southwest. The HP cell in this case is set to reside over Northern parts of the UK in the coming days.

Kind of how you suggested it I believe.

Edited January 14, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[TheLastMinute]

I think this tweet from Ian F sums up Friday nicely at present...

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

"@LittleGardenCom: are we in line for a dump of the white stuff @ the weekend? Have heard yes and no!" It has potential....uncertain

Meanwhile, this little tweet from the Environment Agency caught my eye...

Environment Agency â€@EnvAgency

This week England and Wales has seen its driest week since the middle of August. pic.twitter.com/qod6nmCN

Cheers,

TLM

[WestCountry11]

Well,here in sunny Plymouth it is not too bad tbh. Plenty of heavy rain earlier,but that seems to have cleared up for the time being.

I have seen the news footage from up the line and it looks very snowy indeed.

The Daily Express are harking on about a nationwide white out of snow and ice,well not down here it won't,as it is currently 9c outside [shorts and t-shirt weather]..

Edited January 14, 2013 by WestCountry11

[legritter]

Hello all ,i havent posted lately as had chest infection but been reading posts and watching charts . well some of us could catch a snow shower over night as Air of an Arctic origin passes over irish sea and bristol channell etc . must admit its looking good for a possible battleground situation late thurs /friday .but we must all keep our feet fully on the ground .i have seen these situations quite a few times and when they deliver it can be epic, but they can dissapoint if the fronts slide off into france too soon .iv studied past synoptic events in our area going back well over probably 200 yrs .and there as been many classics from victorian blizzard from hell to 1947 /1963 1978 /81/82 and many others .it does not always need the weather front to get that close as the warm air will travell way a head to affect our area .going by todays fax charts if they are near the mark i would say there is a possibility we could get into a reasonable snowy situation by thurs .its a case of keep looking at latest fax charts and watching the updated charts .i had the pleasure of watching forecasters prepare the charts on the week leading up to 18th feb 1978 ,when i had access to weather office as a member of ROY Met Society .on the evening before a low tracked s/east from s/west ireland towards n/west france and forecasters said snow would only affect corn ,devon border ,the following day morning, front looked like missing altogether .by late afternoon it was GAME ON again ,about 20cm fell in bristol far more in devon and dorset andparts of cornwall with strong winds .the front only gave a dusting at glos on outskirts and a dusting at swindon .and remember it could snow buckets for 18hrs then turn to rain BUT we all get our fix .COLDER AIR ARRIVING sun now out lets get some convection going ,and as they say get the cold air in and things can happen .as a guide look at uk met 96 and ecm 96 and although prone to go wrong it gives a fair idea .i use gfs as a spotter but fax is my favourite .

[AWD]

Looks like the chances for the weekend are dwindling already then with rain on sat /sun and milder uppers.

I can only hope that the 15:30 shows some major upgrade for this cooler air to hang around.

Rain/less cold air by Saturday/Sunday is currently looking like the slightly favourable outcome, but as you've pointed out its 4/5 days away yet so a lot can change.

I think, with the way snowfall is going this winter, that most of us would jump at the chance of one day of significant snowfall, even if it were to go 24 hours later.

Anyway, still too far away for talk of both upgrade & downgrades. Lets see how the next couple of days worth of model output develop the situation, and see what the Met Office & Ian say on the matter.

It's going to be a cold few days ahead. As long as its cold, the risk is always there.

[Wynn D Woo]

Hello all ,i havent posted lately as had chest infection but been reading posts and watching charts . well some of us could catch a snow shower over night as Air of an Arctic origin passes over irish sea and bristol channell etc . must admit its looking good for a possible battleground situation late thurs /friday .but we must all keep our feet fully on the ground .i have seen these situations quite a few times and when they deliver it can be epic, but they can dissapoint if the fronts slide off into france too soon .iv studied past synoptic events in our area going back well over probably 200 yrs .and there as been many classics from victorian blizzard from hell to 1947 /1963 1978 /81/82 and many others .it does not always need the weather front to get that close as the warm air will travell way a head to affect our area .going by todays fax charts if they are near the mark i would say there is a possibility we could get into a reasonable snowy situation by thurs .its a case of keep looking at latest fax charts and watching the updated charts .i had the pleasure of watching forecasters prepare the charts on the week leading up to 18th feb 1978 ,when i had access to weather office as a member of ROY Met Society .on the evening before a low tracked s/east from s/west ireland towards n/west france and forecasters said snow would only affect corn ,devon border ,the following day morning, front looked like missing altogether .by late afternoon it was GAME ON again ,about 20cm fell in bristol far more in devon and dorset andparts of cornwall with strong winds .the front only gave a dusting at glos on outskirts and a dusting at swindon .and remember it could snow buckets for 18hrs then turn to rain BUT we all get our fix .COLDER AIR ARRIVING sun now out lets get some convection going ,and as they say get the cold air in and things can happen .as a guide look at uk met 96 and ecm 96 and although prone to go wrong it gives a fair idea .i use gfs as a spotter but fax is my favourite .

That sounds about right, always too far North/South/East/West/Lowlying

[kent]

Well,here in sunny Plymouth it is not too bad tbh. Plenty of heavy rain earlier,but that seems to have cleared up for the time being.

I have seen the news footage from up the line and it looks very snowy indeed.

The Daily Express are harking on about a nationwide white out of snow and ice,well not down here it won't,as it is currently 9c outside [shorts and t-shirt weather]..

If you believe the daily express then the weather in my garden at the weekend will be so hot the robins will be using tongs to pluck out the worms.

[gottolovethisweather]

Well,here in sunny Plymouth it is not too bad tbh. Plenty of heavy rain earlier,but that seems to have cleared up for the time being.

I have seen the news footage from up the line and it looks very snowy indeed.

The Daily Express are harking on about a nationwide white out of snow and ice,well not down here it won't,as it is currently 9c outside [shorts and t-shirt weather]..

A touch high I would suggest but I do feel for your patch along with many of the other south coast snowless parts but then again, it can and does happen from time to time.

Day one of this cold spell, according to weather online - http://www.weatheron...kuk&SORT=3&UD=0 shows just one location on the mainland above 7c today, so that is cold IMHO.

Anyway, moving on, whilst there is potential, there is hope for all.

I feel this cold spell will hang on longer than is currently projected and the 12z output should confirm my suspicions.

EDIT: I APOLOGISE IT NOW SHOWS COSTA DEL PLYMOUTH AT 8C.

Edited January 14, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[jessandjon]

http://m.thisisplymouth.co.uk/story.html?aid=17853919&category=news

This from thisisplymouth?