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South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 14/01/13, 12z onwards

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Please use this thread for you local / regional weather discussion if you fall into the counties of the South West and Central Southern England

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Well the cold is here...well kind of so when will west country see its first proper snow of the winter... ?search.gif

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Rain Rain and more Rain here in Christchurch, hope things improve for our region later this week!

Friday look better for you:

96_20.gif

102_20.gif

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A couple of links from the other page to kick things off.

This from AWD

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75541-south-westcentral-southern-england-regional-discussion-130113/page__st__700#entry2495948

This from our man Gibby.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75541-south-westcentral-southern-england-regional-discussion-130113/page__st__660#entry2495414

I am sure there were other valuable insights but I just wanted to set the ball rolling.

My 1cm snowcover has all but disappeared and tbf, that was precisely as forecast with regard to today's events.

On to the rest of this week's shenanigans and I like others, will be looking forward to this afternoon's runs as these will be the ones to follow as ever.

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Friday look better for you:

96_20.gif

102_20.gif

Beat me to it! something for us to get excited about but not just yet.. expect downgrades or even upgrades yet :p BBC weather already have me down for snow all day Friday already.

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Interestingly the PPN has calmed down somewhat, I'm in S Ferndown, and sleet is now lightly falling??

Started with Sleet, swiftly moved to heavy rain, and back to light sleet? confused.com

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Friday look better for you:

96_20.gif

102_20.gif

Are these charts any good for south east cornwall?

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So have we still got a chance of an embedded trough in the north easterly flow wed/thurs?

It would be a long haul over the whole of england to reach us but I'll take anything currently rofl.gifgood.gif

I think its risky to get excited about friday as meto view is the block may well be stronger than modeled because of the ssw... Hope I am wrong though.

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There is a small chance of some showers on the rap-around front/convergence that will drop S/SE tonight...

post-9530-0-93782300-1358168911_thumb.gi

Will keep a close eye on the 12z GFS and NAE models later

SM

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So have we still got a chance of an embedded trough in the north easterly flow wed/thurs?

It would be a long haul over the whole of england to reach us but I'll take anything currently rofl.gifgood.gif

I think its risky to get excited about friday as meto view is the block may well be stronger than modeled because of the ssw... Hope I am wrong though.

Would be nice to see places further SW get in the action, potentialy a respectiful amount unless it downgrades.

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Well the cold is here...well kind of so when will west country see its first proper snow of the winter... ?search.gif

Friday!!!!

Risk is certainly there for a good snow event towards the end of the week for our region!!

Both the Euros go for the undercut with a south east wind and ppn moving in off the Atlantic, the perfect scenario for us.

Rukm1201.gif

Recm1201.gif

GFS brings the snow potential in a little earlier

Rtavn961.png

This is something that needs watching closely, if we get lucky this could be very good. But as ever at 4/5 days it's open to changes.

Also done a little chart for those newbies learning about the models, a south east wind is crucial and very helpful when looking to get snow out of a situation where milder air is coming up against a cold block. Today's non event moved in from the north west which is a totally different kettle of fish to what is being hinted at for Friday.

Having the wind in from the south east means the milder/moister Atlantic air picks up and mixes with the much drier cold air off the continent, this means dw points are lower and 850s can be higher and snow still fall,

Sewinds1_zps8dacdec4.jpg

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Not sure if this has already been reported - but whilst the radar is showing that we should be geting the wet sleet and rain - here in Reading for the past half hour or so it has been falling as heavy - albeit wet snow. Interesting. acute.gifgood.gif

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Friday!!!!

Risk is certainly there for a good snow event towards the end of the week for our region!!

Both the Euros go for the undercut with a south east wind and ppn moving in off the Atlantic, the perfect scenario for us.

Rukm1201.gif

Recm1201.gif

GFS brings the snow potential in a little earlier

Rtavn961.png

This is something that needs watching closely, if we get lucky this could be very good. But as ever at 4/5 days it's open to changes.

Also done a little chart for those newbies learning about the models, a south east wind is crucial and very helpful when looking to get snow out of a situation where milder air is coming up against a cold block. Today's non event moved in from the north west which is a totally different kettle of fish to what is being hinted at for Friday.

Having the wind in from the south east means the milder/moister Atlantic air picks up and mixes with the much drier cold air off the continent, this means dw points are lower and 850s can be higher and snow still fall,

Sewinds1_zps8dacdec4.jpg

Good post :)

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GAH!!!! BUT I DONT WANT SNOW ON FRIDAY! I'm leaving the area for the weekend. This is NOT FAIR diablo.gif

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Interestingly the PPN has calmed down somewhat, I'm in S Ferndown, and sleet is now lightly falling??

Started with Sleet, swiftly moved to heavy rain, and back to light sleet? confused.com

Yes, it's a bit of a mess out there.

Likewise here we had snow when DP was sub 0c,

then rain, some of it heavy with DP getting up to +0.6c.

Now rain and snow and DP back down slightly to +0.4c

Who knows what this evening/night will bring!

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PPN now heavy in East Reading, however not accumulating to much. mega_shok.gif

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correct me if i am wrong.... all this talk of a 'slider low', i guessing when they say this that it is effectively the same as a channel low yeh?

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Yes it has been heavy in Reading, big flakes and coming down reasonably hard here near Reading Station. However, it's wet snow and not settling. Not sure if it will either.

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correct me if i am wrong.... all this talk of a 'slider low', i guessing when they say this that it is effectively the same as a channel low yeh?

I think so but not 100%... it could also be a LOW pressure that slides under the cold air - high pressure. Maybe someone could be of more help than i am!

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Fridays 2m Temps.

post-15744-0-30419300-1358169853_thumb.g

Fridays Dewpoint Temps.

post-15744-0-26969700-1358169959_thumb.g

I trust that this bodes well for some snow around our area. Long way off yet, however.

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