Three Counties & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 14th 2013>

[Pirata]

In ipswich, beside being under the precip on the radar last night all the way to this morning, nothing fell of the sky in this god forsaken place!

I am not really keen on the ideia of anything falling later on as well... seems like Ipswich has some kind of a precipitation repelent of some sorts hehehe.

[Eskimo]

I'd say we've had about a scant inch. It was weird as the radar was solid pale pink over my place at 3:30 but not snowing. Then got up again at around 5 and it was snowing lightly. Must have kept up the good work for a few hours.

Moisture was probably able to penetrate the very dry layer of atmosphere last night. For example Buntingford (where I live) was the dividing line between snow and nothing, as the night went on that snow was little by little eroding at the dry atmosphere which in turn dropped the snow further south across my location.

[runboy]

A light dusting in north norwich this morning, makes it look seasonal if nothing else. At the moment there is snow falling but it's that really fine stuff that blows along in the wind - probably the same 50 flakes just dancing around. Everything points to later today for fun time so let's see what mother nature deals us.

[runboy]

Only going by the latest charts. The sweet zone appears to be the N/W of this region and then Lincs/Notts/Derbyshire. However as ever it will come to just watching the radar.

The wrap around that people are referring to will be near my location at midnight tonight.

http://www.meteociel...fax24s.gif?13-0

This will sink SE overnight bringing more snowfall.

Dave, what's your snowcast for north west of Norwich later today and overnight? Will this wraparound pivot around Norfolk meaning those in the middle won't get as much? Mind you, a couple of cm's is beter than nowt!

[snowblind]

i think it will all be snow....so does the bbc and surprisingly the itv have now joined in with that thought on the latest forecast despite earlier saying it would be rain

My local BBC Essex forecast was less optimistic at just before 8 this morning. Maybe 2-3cms in the North of Essex but sleet or rain in the South from the second band early this afternoon. Even the rest of the week was less that impressive with showers being a wintry mix! Not the greatest forecast.

[TEITS]

Hi TEITS as I value your experience could you tell me if it will be a hit or miss for huntingdon.

Generally I feel everyone in this region has a chance of around 5-10cm snowfall and some lucky members might even see more. Very difficult to predict amounts especially from this wrap around front. Even now some slight changes with the 06Z NAE slightly further E than the 0Z.

[Eskimo]

Already 1.0C here now, don't know how accurate that is because I only have a cheap thermometer.

EDIT: Moved the thermometer further away from the window, now down to 0.5C, obviously too much warmth radiating through...d'oh!

Edited January 14, 2013 by PerfectStorm

[snowking]

Yes as TEITS points out, the impact of the wrap around is very difficult indeed to model.

The biggest thing with this particular wrap around of the frontal system is that it starts out in the north sea before moving inland - and thats where it becomes unpredictable as to just how much more moisture it picks up (not to mention where it then tracks)

As last night showed (by the fact its still snowing lightly outside my window now) once systems reach a body of water, they become very unpredictable. For those of you that have the facility to, run the radar sequence from last night back. You will notice that as the front approached from the west, it encountered (and partially created) some extra energy out in the north sea. Eventually this precipitation (just to the north of the wash) merged with the front and sent a renewed pulse of energy through the system, and so despite all the claims that the first front would fizzle out before reaching this region (numerous tweets from the pro's last night suggesting that modelling showed no snow cover across east anglia through last night) it didn't.

This second situation becomes even more complex. The first frontal system has slowed and is on the verge of stalling through the next few hours (its likely to sit just off the coast) - before it fades entirely, the second front catches it up, and the two fronts become one, re-energising the whole system. So thats our first unpredictability, how heavy the precip will actually be once it reaches the east of the UK.

Then as mentioned above, with the wrap around of this front taking energy out from the north sea, becomes even more unpredictable, and could throw the Met Office a curveball as we move through the evening (just as the precip across the Thames Estuary did last night)

SK

[Sweetdream]

Generally I feel everyone in this region has a chance of around 5-10cm snowfall and some lucky members might even see more. Very difficult to predict amounts especially from this wrap around front. Even now some slight changes with the 06Z NAE slightly further E than the 0Z.

Thank you. Still learning the charts but with such flip flopping of late makes it more difficult to understand.

[ITSY]

Like TEITS said, this is very much a nowcast situation. Aside from the prediction of snow itself, its hard to predict what exactly will happen - particularly as a result of the wrap around. 5-10cms possible just about anywhere I imagine, particularly north of Herts/Essex, but some may see more - others less.

[chilly milly]

Good morning all! Had a little bit more than a dusting today. It is very pretty out there.

Now contemplating whether to go into work shortly as not sure if the schools will shut early here and don't want to have to make a dash back from Hertford to pick up the kiddies. Hmmmm.

Did the school run this morning and whilst waiting to drop the girls off had a car skidding towards me completely out of control. I must admit the side road where the school is was complete ice but it was a bit scary. I was stationary and just shut my eyes waiting for the thud as there was nowhere I could go. Car stopped millimetres from my side. And the guy was just laughing. Grrrrr.

[Eskimo]

Good morning all! Had a little bit more than a dusting today. It is very pretty out there.

Now contemplating whether to go into work shortly as not sure if the schools will shut early here and don't want to have to make a dash back from Hertford to pick up the kiddies. Hmmmm.

Did the school run this morning and whilst waiting to drop the girls off had a car skidding towards me completely out of control. I must admit the side road where the school is was complete ice but it was a bit scary. I was stationary and just shut my eyes waiting for the thud as there was nowhere I could go. Car stopped millimetres from my side. And the guy was just laughing. Grrrrr.

I would certainly suggest you pick up your children by 12pm. It's looking rough.

Edited January 14, 2013 by PerfectStorm

[chilly milly]

I would certainly suggest you pick up your children by 12pm. It's looking rough.

Thanks PS, I was hoping for some guidance.

[Yarmy]

Worth keeping in mind that North Sea surface temps are quite elevated at the moment so any wrap round could benefit from that. (Was that a ramp? My first since joining NW, if so)

[mishy]

Had an Inch or two in St. Albans this morning

Didn't take that much longer to get to work (Dunstable). Radar looking good for later and hoping we will be able to leave early.

Edited January 14, 2013 by mishy

[PurpleButterfly]

Well we got a bit of snow in luton.

What's it looking like for later here?

[Coast]

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess

[JennyJane1]

icing sugar dusting here, tiny little flakes blowing about now.

What's it like for here later, please?

[Naturist-Holiday.com]

Had a dusting here overnight.......

Edited January 14, 2013 by Naturist-Holiday.com

[Methuselah]

A great sod-all here...

[Snowangel-MK]

Worth keeping in mind that North Sea surface temps are quite elevated at the moment so any wrap round could benefit from that. (Was that a ramp? My first since joining NW, if so)

It was but only a little one Yarmy....you have so much to learn

Had a dusting here overnight.......

Yarmy...take note; this is a ramp ^^^^^^^^

[starstream]

Despite being within the predicted area for snowfall , the forecast doesnt look great IMBY...however, stranger things have happened so I am not too worried.

I havent looked in the main forecast Model thread ....is it still looking like cold set to stay,and with the SSW could it still reload the cold later on in Jan?

[Eskimo]

Here is my very simple map illustrating the wraparound that's modelled from that front.

A wraparound is simply when an area of precipitation literally wraps around the centre of the low pressure. Anywhere within that black box may see the effect of it.

[Coast]

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WATCH #072

ISSUED: 1645UTC SUNDAY 13th JANUARY 2013 (SG/GJ/GS/SM)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

ALL OF ENGLAND WALES CENTRAL AND EASTERN SCOTLAND

IN EFFECT UNTIL 0600UTC TUESDAY 15TH JANUARY 2013

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO: HEAVY SNOW...ICE

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND INTER-AGENCY AWARENESS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING S/SE OVER THE UNITED KINGDOM WITHIN THE TIMESCALE SPECIFIED. AS THE LOW TRANSITS THROUGH THE COUNTRY AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS PUSH SE MEETING THE COLD AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE, SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR PROVIDING SOME HEAVY FALLS WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN 2-5CM AT LOWER LEVELS ALTHOUGH 5-10CM IS LIKELY ABOVE 200-300 METERS.

http://www.skywarn.org.uk/

[saint]

Here is my very simple map illustrating the wraparound that's modelled from that front.

A wraparound is simply when an area of precipitation literally wraps around the centre of the low pressure. Anywhere within that black box may see the effect of it.

Parts of Herts just about?