Winter Model Discussion 18Z 13/1/13 onwards.

[gaia rules]

New NEA for 0600hrs a definite upgrade

and NEA for 1200hrs Monday ...snow line ever so slightly westward

[Ice Day]

At 78 the cold's retreating back east, not a good sign but recoverable!

[ChartViewer]

Come on...nearly you cannot jump the bridge so go south and have a holiday

102 jet profile

energy further south better

Edited January 13, 2013 by ChartViewer

[Harsh Climate]

If that low to the north west of scandinavia heads north and not north east we may get better height rises to the north as a result

[karlos1983]

New NEA for 0600hrs a definite upgrade

and NEA for 1200hrs Monday ...snow line ever so slightly westward

Massive shift west in my eyes, that's gone from a non event, to an event for Dorset.

[Harsh Climate]

Jet coming out of the eastern sea board of america heading more SSE on this run than SE as before, could help us get an undercut down the line

[Matty M]

Still a chance things could get under in the medium term.

Enough to not be despondent as we start a new week.

[Wayneywoo]

Better jet angle on the 18z. Shortwave going under around T+120.

[karlos1983]

off she goes?

[Matty M]

East Ireland could end up being a snowy location, even though it's right on the periphery of the cold!

With Atlantic fronts pushing up against the block.

Let's hope for an 1982 renewal.

[georgiedre]

at 96 hrs looks like its moving towards yhe south? am i right in thinking this?

allthough that low racing accross the atlantic is like a bull!!!! wheres it going

Edited January 13, 2013 by georgiedre

[karlos1983]

at 96 hrs looks like its moving towards yhe south? am i right in thinking this?

Jet? Yes looks that way, more frames needed

[frozen bluebird]

come on guys back up with charts as it doesnt help us lesser mortals

[If Wishes made Weather]

Quite an amusing run from the GFS at circa 102 onwards with the UK and Ireland being squeezed by approaching air masses. Minus 8 uppers from the East and minus 4 from the West. The easterly wins slightly.

[Harsh Climate]

Where's this little fella to the west of ireland come from!

Think it's going to have a huge bearing on the rest of this run

[Liam J]

Some decent snow event opportunities for the western half of the UK so far as the Atlantic fronts bump into the cold block with -6/-8c uppers, disruptive snowfall potential.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=114&mode=2

[chionomaniac]

The Atlantic looks to be firing an undercutting cannon ball.

Edit - that doesn't want to undercut!

Edited January 13, 2013 by chionomaniac

[karlos1983]

come on guys back up with charts as it doesnt help us lesser mortals

+78 not looking great

+96, breaks up and begins to head south

+102 clear.....for now

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Undercut tastic towards 144 or will that low just stall?

[Harsh Climate]

The only thing stopping us from a raging cold easterly is that dam low/shortwave to the north of scandinavia..

[Tim Bland]

And where the twain shall meet there shall be snow

Is this what Liam dutton was referring to earlier re a convergence zone?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=2

[bluearmy]

Making us wait for the day 5 fax. Looking at the T96, methinks it will be modified somewhat.

Edited January 13, 2013 by bluearmy

[Carlrg]

Hi all. I know its deep into FI but this would be the mother of all undercuts. It's the UKMO as well. Please be kind it's my first post!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021

[ChartViewer]

You have an appointment at 18-30 club med so stop clinging to the uk ...!!!

[Stuie]

Weird, the GFS yesterday showed a non snow blip into the south and London.

Tonight it has appeared again. Wonder what is causing that to show up.