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chionomaniac

Winter Model Discussion 18Z 13/1/13 onwards.

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Well the cold air has arrived. But will everyone have their fill of snow before it leaves?

Find out here.

Please stay on topic.

No moaning, sniping, off topic posts, will it snow type posts, IMBYism, trolling. Thanks.

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I'm not suggesting that I understand it either, wg...But, for what it's worth, if I were the one responsible for the algorithms, I would expect to be (in some subtle way at least and either consciously or unconsciously) basing the algorithms in respect to what I knew best; things about which I know least would, necessarily, receive less attention...

That's really all I'm saying: that all of us are biased towards our own locales??? My statement was not intended to be in any way derogatory...biggrin.png

Fair enough, and no I didn't take it that way :)

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So this is Thursday's CMA......It has been showing this for a while now consistantly....More in line with UKMO Signals for this week than gfs an ecm...We shall see. Dud or a model to move above Nogapssmile.png

Also note the jet tracking south rather than east with less energy off the ES.

CMA T96

cmanh-0-96.png?12

T 850'S

cmanh-1-96.png

Jet profile Thursday

cmanh-5-96.png

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And theres me - glass half full, analysing the 72hr fax chart and comparing it to the much better 84hr chart

and not realising that it is actually snowing moderately here - right now!! Message being - enjoy the cold while

it is here instead of worrying about possible downgrades days ahead.

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As good as some of the models look for T120 onwards, they are still fairly knifeedge and at such a long way I wouldn't be overly confident that the mild air wont move in just enough to cut off the east feed. For example, this: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=120&carte=1021

is a snow feast, but 200 miles north and most of England will be on flood alert instead. Snow in these parts is rarely far from milder weather, which is why it often doesn't verify. Rather than 5-10 more says of cold, I think we're looking at 5-10 more days of knifeedge. Of course, it is these knifeedge situations that often lead to major snowfalls, so anyone seeking snow over just cold should be very pleased with the 12Z output.

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Just another question. Why is it called a Fax chart ? Does FAX stand for something ?

Is this a this weeks fax chart = Seems like there is a high pressure moving towards us on Thursday.

http://www.metoffice...oductId/4419010

Educated guess that's its a facsimile of the raw data, copy/replica with likeness.

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Still in the cold game at CMA T120....Sorry having to post separate but doesnt come out that quick

cmanh-0-120.png

cmanh-1-120.png

cmanh-5-120.png

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The ecm run was actually pretty good with the energy disrupting against the block and heading se/ne. That wasnt so far from the 00z ens message. Time to look at the 12z.

Btw, they are called FAX charts because they used to FAX them through 20 years ago.

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Hi all. I'm new to this. I saw some brief comments speculating about the ECM run thid evening saying there was no mild sector or it was much more westward to us in its run but I have not seen anything since. I'm from chessington and did actually see a very all amount of snow yesterday about 1ish that amounted to nothing. Been snow mad all my life and st 34 nothing has changed

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Any idea on the warm sector guys?

To me it looks like the UKMO model is the one that doesn't really have a warm sector, certainly an upgrade from the 0z. MO still predicting rain for the west though!

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Any idea on the warm sector guys?

The 18z NAE should be out within half an hour or so and should give a more up to date idea on where the warm sector will pass through.

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Hi all. I'm new to this. I saw some brief comments speculating about the ECM run thid evening saying there was no mild sector or it was much more westward to us in its run but I have not seen anything since. I'm from chessington and did actually see a very all amount of snow yesterday about 1ish that amounted to nothing. Been snow mad all my life and st 34 nothing has changed

There was a big mild sector that didn't show on the 850's because they are 24 hours apart.

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Astonished that the 00z ecm was dismissed. The reading epsgram shows tems barely breaking zero beyond the middle of this week with a snow event day 8. Ens mean maxes 2 to 3 c throughout. The ukmo looks like it might have some ens support. Goinf to have a look at the postage stamps.

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Regarding the NAE, it had no snow for my area tonight and it was showing rain, however it has been snowing for about an hour now, with different intensities and not settling but nice to see nonetheless.

Lets hope it's just as inaccurate for some of the marginal areas tomorrow!

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I think that these could be from the ECM 12Z

post-4523-0-09762400-1358110408_thumb.gi

Cold for the week - til next Sun.

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Just another question. Why is it called a Fax chart ? Does FAX stand for something ?

Is this a this weeks fax chart = Seems like there is a high pressure moving towards us on Thursday.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/data/CoreProductCache/SurfacePressureChart/Item/ProductId/4419010

I think it's because they used to fax it out

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There are no ecm ens members that look closely like the ukmo. However, there are plenty of trough xtensions to our sw which drive a se flow and dont get across. the end of the week cold see something of interest although as matt has tweeted, it may well be that the energy doesnt get that close at verification as the block looks strong.

Just need to squeeze some decent snow cover over the next few days and this could be a memorable cold period.

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I think that these could be from the ECM 12Z

post-4523-0-09762400-1358110408_thumb.gi

Cold for the week - til next Sun.

Very impressive there. As long as the block remains and the cold remains entrenched at the surface of course opportunities for snowfall can arise at relatively short notice. Evidently a split later on but this is quite an impressive mean for D10 given that there would be a decent number of runs in there that sink the block by that stage

EDM0-240.GIF?13-0

No real breakdown in sight as of yet.

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Matt Hugo

Support for the block is there and the ensembles are quite cold overall into next week, away from Ireland.

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81

ECM 12z Full Ensemble

15DAAGSE_06260_NWT.png?6767676767

More colder clustering long term than the 00z, interesting tweets from Matt regarding number of members going for a slider low.

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