London & South East Regional Discussion

[Essexgooner]

From what I can deduce for our region tomorrow looks as follows

Anywhere north of a line from say Harlow across to Chelmsford out to the coast it looks like snow. Kent, Sussex Surrey, all of Greater London inside M25 will see rain / sleet. North of the Thames its likely to be sleet mix.

South essex is likely in the sleet zone. So I'd reckon on the following

Chelmsford - snow (just)

Basildon - sleet

Southend - rain (due to wind direction of sea)

Colchester - snow (comfortably in snow zone)

Brentwood - sleet (albeit a little elevation here so tough one to call)

Wickford / billericay - sleet

South woodham ferrers - sleet

Danbury - with elevation wet snow.

Things can still change but the models have been pretty resolute so we will see. I'll be keeping my fingers crossed for everyone.

Jason

Good call Id say

[manutdmatt1986]

Looks like a few shower starting to fire in the North sea etc-

be nice to hold them off for a few hours-

S

Steve, as one of the most knowledgable people on here, how wide spread do you think the snow showers could be from Tuesday onwards currently? (I realise it's hard to predict and details will undoubtably change).

[london-snow]

It seems that if anything can go wrong it will go wrong for the majority of south east this winter...

Anyway let's try to turn this into a positive shall we..

We still have time on our side a good 16 hours which is a long time in weather terms ( Esp a marginal event ) regarding the mild sector that is forecast to disappoint most snow lovers at around late morning through the early afternoon before colder air fights back and the precipitation turns back to snow as the day draws to a close.

It is a shame that the first band looks a weak affair as if we could have managed a few cms+ of settling snow then this in turn would have aided the chance of keeping temps down and therefore may have made the milder sector less marginal and more room for error.

Key points for me for overnight tonight -

1. Close eye for the first band that pushes towards us prey for strengthening of band & organization of front.

2. Overnight runs.

3. Timing of second front - The more delayed & the later the arrival the better as we move into evening.

4. For those who are crazy about snow enjoy what you may receive overnight if the band makes it.

5. A snow bible to prey that the mild sector shunts away.

6. Red bull or coffee for overnight.

Edited January 13, 2013 by london-snow

[Jason M]

Yes you said Harlow,woop,im going to hold you to that

Harlow is a really tough call, but I reckon you are just about okay although there is literally no margin for error. If you were up near the airport I'd be more confident.

Jason

[High Altitude]

Hey Guys, Haven't, been on much , well I check a few different forecast some said lying some said Sleet , I'm not exactly sure, does anybody know if there will be lying snow in East London?

From Tuesday onwards I would say is a given. Keen easterly promoting convection off the North Sea and pushing over the whole south east corner.

At the moment tonight and tomorrow should bring some light snow over the region but exactly where is a bit hit and miss. Curtain twitching and radar watching is your best bet now.

Many of us may be pleasantly surprised.......bands of precipitation can develop quite quickly and or intensify under a cold flow. Also in my experience the TV forecast always under play snow amounts so all in all plenty to look forward to forus in the SE. Might pop open some seasonal mulled wine and really get into the spirit of things :-).......now where did i put that cheesy christmas Cd.......lol

[beng]

For those of us around East Surrey and W Kent - I think we'll see some back edge snow from this precip - probably just 1-2cm though. Hope I am wrong and it's all snow - but looks very unlikely from current output here.

[xlifeisasongx]

Sorry - where does Hornchurch sit in all this? Sleet? Snow?

[Jayces]

I reckon something will fall out of the sky, just hope it's not meteorites, saw a movie about that once, wasn't good.

Excitement building in the mod thread again for mid to end of the week but we were there a few days ago and now it's a bit more subdued....

If we can get an Easterly flow set up then our snow is more likely to fall as snow as it's coming from a cold source rather then a warm one.

[Jo S]

Harlow is a really tough call, but I reckon you are just about okay although there is literally no margin for error. If you were up near the airport I'd be more confident.

Jason

Thanks i will get the bus

[Jason M]

Sorry - where does Hornchurch sit in all this? Sleet? Snow?

Sleet, rain mix. Sorry :-(

I'm in basildon so I feel your pain also.

Jason

[abovefreezing]

North-West thread (where its coming from and right under the 1st front) all rather annoyed and disappointed.

I'm not surprised:

Liverpool webcam:

http://www.mathew.st/webcam.php

soggy!

Gonna pack all this in now til at least midnight, I think...

Edited January 13, 2013 by abovefreezing

[sarah7meme]

Met office extended warnings till weds for snow in kent

[Col Berkshire]

I'm in west Berkshire tomorrow, almost 200m ASL. It could be an interesting drive home!

[Jason M]

North-West thread (where its coming from and right under the 1st front) all rather annoyed and disappointed.

I'm not surprised:

Liverpool webcam:

http://www.mathew.st/webcam.php

soggy!

Mind you, the NW coastal strip is probably the hardest place to get snow in the entire country. As long as you were not in the very far SW, most of Cornwall would be more likely to see snow than Liverpool in most winters.

Jason

[Lampostwatcher]

Temp 0.7c

Dew p -1.9c

Cloudy

[xlifeisasongx]

Sleet, rain mix. Sorry :-(

I'm in basildon so I feel your pain also.

Jason

I'm quite relieved tbh. Wasn't sure where we stood cos the BBC Weather says heavy snow for us but the tv forecasts and latest Met Office updates were reporting sleet.

[SMU]

Steve, as one of the most knowledgable people on here, how wide spread do you think the snow showers could be from Tuesday onwards currently? (I realise it's hard to predict and details will undoubtably change).

as we progress through tues- thurs the undcut from the atlantic will force the upper level steering winds to push the showers further west-

Even if tomorrow is a let down the upgrades tonight for the middle part of the week are great- especially the UKMO...

the UKMO looks like Feb 2009 at 120 when I had 30cms of snow in 24 hours....

S

[Whereisthesnow?]

Hmmm, interesting. BBC 5 day forecast. Snow flake just appeared for now. Wasn't there 30 mins ago. Sign of things to come?

[atrow]

to all you knowledgeable guys out there as it stands how's Hertfordshire (Hatfield) looking for overnight and tomorrow?? thanks guys

[manutdmatt1986]

as we progress through tues- thurs the undcut from the atlantic will force the upper level steering winds to push the showers further west-

Even if tomorrow is a let down the upgrades tonight for the middle part of the week are great- especially the UKMO...

the UKMO looks like Feb 2009 at 120 when I had 30cms of snow in 24 hours....

S

The reason I ask is that I normally miss out on any snow showers from a North Easterly here (I think because we're shielded by East Anglia). We normally need a straight Easterly to see snow showers.

[Eskimo]

It's either good news or bad news for many if they want the snow to arrive. I'll start with the good news. If you live on the Eastern coast of the UK or live Along the Eastern half of East Anglia then you will be glad to know you'll be in p...rime position for a significant dumping of snow. Unfortunately the bad news is that the further west & south you go, the more likely that any snow will be increasingly sleet or rain.

Of course as ever things are subject to change but as the event is only tomorrow, this chart will only be modified slightly, either upgraded or downgraded.

The problem many will face tomorrow through the West and extreme south is that the 'warm sector' of the low pressure will travel down the spine of the country. Warmer air will establish itself to the west of the centre and to the south of the centre of the low pressure. which would be anywhere from Oxford West or South London southward.

A 'warm sector' in Leymans Terms is basically a pocket of warm air that travels with a low pressure system, the warm air in that pocket rises into the upper atmosphere causing any potential snowfall to be mixed out.

Remember snowfall is very hard to forecast and there could just be a few surprises for many tomorrow, stay safe!

[Yellow Army]

If the PPN slows down/arrives later tomorrow afternoon/evening we could certainly see an inch or two

[Jason M]

On the shower front, Tuesday onwards its likely most will get something. People need to realise though that the wind direction will heavily favour Kent. I wouldn't be expecting more than a few centimetres north of the estuary unless a more organised trough comes in from the North Sea.

One other point re tommorow night. A bit of back edge snow is likely IMO, so don't be shocked to wake up to a dusting and an ice skating rink on Tuesday morning in the rain / sleet areas.

Jason

[CrimsonSunset]

Saw a few tiny snowflakes in the air in Hampstead this afternoon, only lasted a couple of minutes though. Still, its a start!

[Jason M]

to all you knowledgeable guys out there as it stands how's Hertfordshire (Hatfield) looking for overnight and tomorrow?? thanks guys

As things stand, snow for you unless your right down in the extreme south of the county.