South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 13/01/13 ---->

[Nights King]

True, but you're not in Bristol. Besides, I could give you a whole list of failed events from neck of the woods. A large part of the early 1990s right through to 2008 were largely disappointing for me, but I can always go up to the local downs for my snow fix.

Game on I say.

No I'm not from bristol but they are close to my heart as I work in bristol so spend 70% of my life in there Hence why it is in my interest to see bristol see snow.

Looking interesting all week we shall have to wait and see what happens.

Edited January 13, 2013 by mullender83

[AWD]

We would be crippled if this GFS run verified at face value on Friday;

Over 24 hours of heavy snow. It probably won't verify, but imagine, just imagine if it did.

[cerneman]

Hmm cornwall might get lucky :-)

Get the Cornish lucky Pixie out, Hope you lucky for end week

[SupaSnowy]

Well by 150 hours we are losing the battle with the Atlantic. Still more changes to come, more chances of snow later next week. So lots to look forward to. 120 hours looks really good. Shame it's not T-10.

[Chris K]

We would be crippled if this GFS run verified at face value on Friday;

Over 24 hours of heavy snow. It probably won't verify, but imagine, just imagine if it did.

I'd be running out the office ripping my tie off my suit with tears of joy that we didn't have a snowless winter.

In all seriousness though although it will change, its something to keep an eye on at least. Some cold frosty/icy days to look forward to before then with bitter nights. And for some perhaps a bit of lamp post watching

[fromey]

this just from the MOD i thinks its from 120hrs, so possibly FI

[AWD]

this just from the MOD i thinks its from 120hrs, so possibly FI

Yes, that's the UKMO model at T120.

Basically snow snow snow then rain at T144. lol.

Edited January 13, 2013 by AWD

[Frosty_wsm]

Bit hard to get excited about that Friday's chart until it's at +6 hours away from happening, especially after all the changes we've seen over the last few days regarding tonight's snow band.

[gottolovethisweather]

No I'm not from bristol but they are close to my heart as I work in bristol so spend 70% of my life in there Hence why it is in my interest to see bristol see snow.

Looking interesting all week we shall have to wait and see what happens.

They're going to get some snow tonight, most probably in the next hour or so, they will see the first flakes.

I can't bring snow to everyone but I see no reason for anybody, bar those on offshore islands, for not liking the potential developing before our very eyes.

[SupaSnowy]

Yeah that UKMO chart is amazing. Love that to verify, long way to go tho.

[fromey]

Yeah that UKMO chart is amazing. Love that to verify, long way to go tho.

very long way, its just eye candy at the moment, lets hope the trend keeps going.

fromey

[jessandjon]

Get the Cornish lucky Pixie out, Hope you lucky for end week

Will do :-)

[gottolovethisweather]

We would be crippled if this GFS run verified at face value on Friday;

Over 24 hours of heavy snow. It probably won't verify, but imagine, just imagine if it did.

The above takes me back to how well the GFS 12z seems to do at picking our trends.

This post from Friday clearly shows this, with special attention paid to my last two paragraphs.

http://forum.netweat...80#entry2481149

Edited January 13, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Wilxy]

I know the UKMO was good but lets focus more on tonight first as things can change a short notice for better or worse that could effect the pattern in the longer run.

[divadee]

Purely eye candy, nothing else;

STALL. STALL. STALL

Lol, it actually does as well. Oh how I wish this was T6 and not T120.

Not fair!! Why does this have to be so far away. 😥

[westysweather]

We would be crippled if this GFS run verified at face value on Friday;

Over 24 hours of heavy snow. It probably won't verify, but imagine, just imagine if it did.

Wow I just spat my tea out lol..... What it would be like too witness that!

[gottolovethisweather]

Bit hard to get excited about that Friday's chart until it's at +6 hours away from happening, especially after all the changes we've seen over the last few days regarding tonight's snow band.

Indeed, but we can dream and if you check the undeniable trend, a vast part of the UK will be in entrenched cold by then aiding our prospects further. Besides, I recall fergieweather suggesting that timescale was very much a period to watch.

Time wil tell of course, but these are brilliant synoptics right now, compared to what is usually the norm.

Edited January 13, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[katemart]

Sun just dropped below the horizon and grey clouds massing from the North. #Uksnowmap correlating very well with the visible ppn on raintoday. Just hoping to get the conditions right before the front comes over.

Currently 2C. DP -3.7 and rising (to be expected as front approaches, I suppose) as is rising humidity of 66%. Wet bulb reads -0.1C but I still dunno wot that means....

[Frosty_wsm]

Mind you the UKMO had been very stable in its output of late, not showing the big swings that both the gfs and ecm has so that's a plus as well for that 120h and imo increases the chance of that chart verifying.

[AWD]

The trend from tonight's output so far is for a cold week ahead with low night time minima.

Then the trend is for an Atlantic attack and a battleground scenario on Friday. That's all we can take from tonight's output regarding the end of the week at this stage.

There are 4 GFS runs a day, 5 days. You will get crap runs and you will get good runs, take no notice of detail by either, just look at the trend.

Do not react to every GFS run or you will have mental breakdown!!

Reliable timeframe and it remains cold, thats the main thing for now.

[bradymk]

Hi guys, from Wales but thought I would drop in here aswell as it looks like were both going to miss out on the snowy conditions early this week. However no need to worry if the 12z GFS and UKMO verifies, UKMO even better Hope everyone gets some snow tonight before the warm sector moves through. I like reading through this thread as well as the welsh one due to both our locations being quite similar for snow conditions (we seem to always be in the worst place).

[cerneman]

After our uninspiring winter todate, gives us something to follow over next week, Long time in terms of weather, but something to keep eye on, So many twists turns to come but trend is hope the friend

[Lynxus]

Ahhhhhhhhhhh ahahahhahaha

+144 will NEVER come off. Please god, if it did I would never ask for snow again.

A LP like that undercutting the cold pool would kill us.

[Nights King]

Ahhhhhhhhhhh ahahahhahaha

+144 will NEVER come off. Please god, if it did I would never ask for snow again.

A LP like that undercutting the cold pool would kill us.

No but it might mean a couple of days off work...

temperature falling here -0.2c dp -4c

Edited January 13, 2013 by mullender83

[AWD]

Ahhhhhhhhhhh ahahahhahaha

+144 will NEVER come off. Please god, if it did I would never ask for snow again.

A LP like that undercutting the cold pool would kill us.

Actually its T120. :p

But yeah, wouldn't get too excited about it. It's just eye candy that probably won't verify.