Far North of England Regional - Cold Spell Discussion 13/01/13--->

[Summer Sun]

Latest forecast on the beeb shows the snow pushing back in around lunchtime and sitting there for around 4 hours, further snow then pushes back in during the early hours of Tuesday

[Freezing-Point]

its now 1.3c here. temp is falling steadily. just need the ppn to intensify as it slides down the east later tonight......

[Continental Climate]

I must admit the band seems to be intensifying on the radar again now not so fragmented, so looks like we are going to get heavy rain and not just the intermittent stuff

[Isolated Frost]

SATSIGS ey-

cc, it will probably snow as well as rain tonight.

[AdrianHull]

Starting to snow now in Prudhoe Tyne Valey

[CPK East Durham Coast]

Very very light snow in east durham

[Summer Sun]

Looking at the radar and the precipitation is getting closer and is starting to get more intense again

Currently 2.2°C here with a DP of -1.6°C

Not over for snow far from it

[Snowstorm1]

Bbc say all snow so chill out

[Summer Sun]

BBC weather we could see some very heavy snow tomorrow afternoon with some nasty conditions an amber warning has been issued here

[Alex95]

Don't forget the BBC still think the initial band will bring up to 10cm on the hills, whilst a quick look at the radar shows they're completely wrong.

[smogonthetyne]

Hi Gavin,

what's your location?

The only technical info I can add is the ice in the barbeque (don't ask) hasn't melted all day, here in Middlesbrough

[Deep Snow please]

Long time lurker here.

Tonight's band of snow/rain/sleet according to the BBC is meant to last from now until midnight with persistent heavy snow according to the BBC. A quick glance out the window suggests that isn't on the radar at all.

Will the band bring any snow to the Washington area, or just a bit of sleet?

[doggy123]

Light sleet i reckon for Tyne and wear tonight.

Sleet tomorrow morning with snow in the afternoon hopefully leaving a dusting!

[jennyifer]

spitting with rain in darlington ,i just have that feeling its going to start as rain end in a little snow that melts as it falls!

[Freezing-Point]

Does anyone know what is going to cause this ppn to intensify? its very rare for this to happen after crossing the pennines, unless wind changes to come off the sea, as its supposed to tomorrow afternoon.

[Cloud 10]

Very light snow here now.

[Geordiesnow]

Don't forget the BBC still think the initial band will bring up to 10cm on the hills, whilst a quick look at the radar shows they're completely wrong.

Also don't forget the BBC uses UKMO charts which are colder upper air temps wise! GFS looks VERY marginal too me although again the trend as the day goes on is for upper air temps to turn colder so even though any PPN may start as rain, it may still turn to snow.

I just can't believe how much this projected snowy spell has downgraded into something alot more marginal, even the projected easterly is getting shortlived as once again, it seems the eastern movement bias is coming into play, the UKMO in particular is a downgrade from this mornings run in the short term but the ECM also looks a downgrade to! Incredible really.

These downgrades is summing up of a winter of so near yet so far!

[Continental Climate]

Also don't forget the BBC uses UKMO charts which are colder upper air temps wise! GFS looks VERY marginal too me although again the trend as the day goes on is for upper air temps to turn colder so even though any PPN may start as rain, it may still turn to snow.

I just can't believe how much this projected snowy spell has downgraded into something alot more marginal, even the projected easterly is getting shortlived as once again, it seems the eastern movement bias is coming into play, the UKMO in particular is a downgrade from this mornings run in the short term but the ECM also looks a downgrade to! Incredible really.

These downgrades is summing up of a winter of so near yet so far!

You are right GS just came over from the MO thread and big downgrade fromn tuesday onwards with regard convective easterly both agreed upon by UKMO and ECM so no way back there unfortunately. Thats what makes tonite and tommorrow so important to get some snow on the ground and then hopefully it will stick for a few days because from tue evening onwards its looking cold but dry!!

[Isolated Frost]

Tuesday and Wednesday still look very convective to me- and then Friday has a battleground where the low sinks under the block and the convective E'ly flow begins again? Nowt wrong with the current output- just tomorrow looks too wet now.

[Continental Climate]

Tuesday and Wednesday still look very convective to me- and then Friday has a battleground where the low sinks under the block and the convective E'ly flow begins again? Nowt wrong with the current output- just tomorrow looks too wet now.

Not sure i agree with you there mate i think we have a window on tuesday afternoon for convection but closes on tuesday evening this is ukmo on wetter for wednesday http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm723.gif!! dry as a bone

[NickR]

Not sure i agree with you there mate i think we have a window on tuesday afternoon for convection but closes on tuesday evening this is ukmo on wetter for wednesday http://www.wetterzen...ics/Rukm723.gif!! dry as a bone

Yep - Look at the 72h fax - no E'ly convection there.

http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/4344/fax72s.gif

[Geordiesnow]

Tuesday and Wednesday still look very convective to me- and then Friday has a battleground where the low sinks under the block and the convective E'ly flow begins again? Nowt wrong with the current output- just tomorrow looks too wet now.

Tuesday still looks ok too me but by Wednesday on the UKMO in particular is a huge downgrade, the forecast of the easterly winds to get stronger has gone now and the flow off the east is very slack. However unlike Saturday, what may help we have a little bit lower thicknesses and slightly lower pressure so that should create more instability therefore stronger showers but any more eastwards movement, then the flow is gone by Wednesday and we have a clear sunny day. Two advantages with a slacker flow is less sea moderation and any showers do come along, they should last longer which members like NL should have more advantage from but yes, my initial thoughts is the UKMO in particular is VERY disapointing compared to this mornings run which showed quite a stonking easterly.

ECM is slightly better however, but only slightly and even this model has downgraded it somewhat.

Regarding tomorrow "event" then if PPN is around, I still think it be of snow but it will be a day of where rain/sleet will turn to snow BUT whether much will settle now because of the larger mild sector is now very debateable.

I feel rather flat at the moment, probably won't surprise many of you but nevermind, see what happens I guess.

Regarding tonight front, models seem to hint it may intensify a touch and the air is still cold enough for snow for sure, been snowing in Cumbria today at low levels despite the intensity not being all that strong so still some hope I guess.

[Andy_]

The latest GFS does intensify the front by 9pm tonight, so i think we'd better keep our eye on the radar in case it does. There must be a reason why it intensifies, and even if that relatively light precipitation moves over to the east of the region its going to stick around for a while its moving at a snails pace!

[Isolated Frost]

Wouldnt look at the NWP predictions when it comes to convection- and that FAX looks borderline- lots of convection towards the south that runs into a block in England.

I would be looking at the BBC and MetO guidance as well before reacting to NWP shifts in convection.

[Alex95]

I feel that things went overly negative in here this evening - not much has changed, but as the details for tomorrow start to firm up it looks as though we are going to be just on the wrong side of marginal. The details for midweek keep changing, but even if only Tuesday is snowy there's no reason why we can't get a significant snow event. Don't forget the 5th December - it only snowed for about 6 hours but we got a decent covering.