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South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 12th 2013>


Snowangel-MK

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Posted
  • Location: Crowborough East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: warm sunny days, tons of snow!
  • Location: Crowborough East Sussex

Just started snowing here, light but good to see

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Posted
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, Snow in Winter
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent

Looking at recent observations , although temps in region are currently between 3-4 c the dew points have recently reduced and are now around or below 0c. Now all we need is precipitation!

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?LANG=en&DATE=1357981200&CONT=euro&LAND=UK&KEY=UK&SORT=3&INT=06&TYP=taupunkt&ART=tabelle&RUBRIK=akt&R=310&CEL=C

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Just started snowing here, light but good to see

Send it just down here then please!! :clap:

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl

What is the forecast for London Today, Tomorrow and Sunday?

I'm on my phone so don't know where you are but I'll try...

Today light rain perhaps turning to a wintry mix / snow as the day goes on... I wouldn't expect much to settle. Hard frost tonight.

Tomorrow will be very cold (1 or 2c) but mostly dry... Perhaps some snow showers to the east. Another hard frost.

Monday, bitterly cold with a band of snow (I don't think there should be any marginality away from coastal fringes - the met office are saying anywhere from 5 to 15cm. This could fall during the afternoon making the rush hour interesting!

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Posted
  • Location: Crowborough East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: warm sunny days, tons of snow!
  • Location: Crowborough East Sussex

Send it just down here then please!! :clap:

I'll try, can't promise anything tho lol

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Posted
  • Location: Cambourne Cambridge 70M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards,Hot Thundery nights.
  • Location: Cambourne Cambridge 70M ASL

I wouldn't worry about models beyond T72, too much chopping and changing for anything remotely reliable as Stuart explained yesterday below. Current strat warming quite exceptional rise in a short space of time.

Models exhibiting shocking inter-run and intra run continuity, and that's just the ensemble means !

The only constants that stand out here when assessing the next 10-14 days:

- troughing signal for Europe;

- below average signal for Europe;

- general signal for +ve height anomalies to our north and NE.

Beyond that, don't bother attempting to place any value in model solutions, of any type. A good time to be able to put non-NWP assessment alongside the myriad of options here. With angular momentum increasing off the back of tropical convective waves in the Pacific, we should see the above general synoptic as the benchmark.

The real developing story for me being the impending collapse of the polar vortex. We should be looking around day 9/10 for a complete cleaving in half across the Arctic with tropospheric response a few days later. A few GFS ensembles showing this.

Still looking very likely that the second phase of cold will come out of the NE.

Strong ensemble mean and teleconnective support for a deep trough to take up residence over Europe in the meantime, and also signal for low pressure in the Atlantic. ECM op not for me.

Good post interesting that the gfs is possibly starting to show the split vortex due to the ssw thus has the better heights to the north. Shall be many coldies sweating on the 12z this tea time. Nearly spat my tea out this morning after seeing the gfs and ukmo with the under cut showing for next week.
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Posted
  • Location: Haywards Heath, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!!
  • Location: Haywards Heath, West Sussex

In very basic terms, what does it mean when the polar vortex collapses? I've seen this mentioned lots of times.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl

I can't post the ECM ensembles as I am on my phone and don't know the link but someone has posted the link and the op is completely unsupported by the ensembles! This is good news for us coldies!

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl

As the low now spins we should be able to pull in the really cold air..

Im really excited about Monday through to Wednesday lots of snow if it came off..

Me too... I'm so pleased I can walk to work!

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Posted
  • Location: Dunstable
  • Location: Dunstable

I don't understand why the NAE wants it to arrive so earlier :/ That would make the morning and evening rush hour bad!

Surely it would mean a phone call to the boss? help.gifrofl.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Margate
  • Weather Preferences: Anything and everything
  • Location: Margate

Snowing slightly near Stevenage. A bonus as didn't think it would get this far north

ah I knew I should have got up a little earlier lol.

Just getting my NW extra for a month and raring to go now. I think its goin to be a long wait now until Monday. Hope if it comes down hard during the day I get let home early to appreciate it. Although it will be fun at work as I work in a school for children with autism and our class are only 4. Would love to take them out in the playground in it :)

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)

A little light sleety snow falling here in Reigate. Might head for the hills later (twice as high as home, at 230m asl) to see if that extra elevation makes any difference.

Edit: now back to light rain.

Edited by abruzzi spur
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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

In very basic terms, what does it mean when the polar vortex collapses? I've seen this mentioned lots of times.

Well firstly the SST caused a split in the vortex , a big chunk over north Russia the other chunk out Canada area , then we have the continued warming for the last week keeping things stay toasty up there (relatively anyway !) , we now have continued wave breaking into the strat which has really aided the vortex split and causes further splits , which can in affect destroy the vortex, you will then be left with four lobes of small pieces of vortex left at the four corners of the northern h , this hasn't happened yet but may well do over the next few wks , in the areas where there isn't remnants of the vortex , we have no or little energy so high pressure will build in these areas , with a lobe over Russia and another over Canada that leaves a Greenland high likely.

Be very dubious of anything that shows a raging PV and low pressure racing over the Atlantic , the likely hood is its wrong .

Hope this helps

Edited by Severe Siberian icy blast
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Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Surrey
  • Location: Bramley, Surrey

I'm on my phone so don't know where you are but I'll try...

Today light rain perhaps turning to a wintry mix / snow as the day goes on... I wouldn't expect much to settle. Hard frost tonight.

Tomorrow will be very cold (1 or 2c) but mostly dry... Perhaps some snow showers to the east. Another hard frost.

Monday, bitterly cold with a band of snow (I don't think there should be any marginality away from coastal fringes - the met office are saying anywhere from 5 to 15cm. This could fall during the afternoon making the rush hour interesting!

Morning Plum... With regards to meto for Monday. Im not very good at all the chart malarky, but from what I can make out from my local meto forecast there does seem to be marginality. Yesterday was an all snow event which was arriving later and prolonged through the night. This morning it seems to have swung to light snow and sleet showers starting at 6am. Is there a warm sector or is this due to something else?

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)

Me too... I'm so pleased I can walk to work!

I could do that but even if I managed to average 4mph in the snow it would take me 10 hours!

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Posted
  • Location: Haywards Heath, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!!
  • Location: Haywards Heath, West Sussex

Thanks for explaining that, it certainly helps when you are trying to keep up with some of the more technical posts. :-)

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Posted
  • Location: Crawley
  • Location: Crawley

Looking at some of the snow charts somne has posted in the weather outlook, it shows very heavy snow for all south east from. On Monday to early hours of wednesday but metoffice and NBC are only showing light snow. Logic would suggest that the snow showers sweeping across the country we are in prime position

Edited by snowy weather
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Little kink in the GFS snow thing says sleet here monday, MetO say FIVE DEGREES and heavy rain :{

-8 uppers though?

Edited by Weathizard
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl

A little light sleety snow falling here in Reigate. Might head for the hills later (twice as high as home, at 230m asl) to see if that extra elevation makes any difference.

Edit: now back to light rain.

It was always light rain here... Damn your extra 20m! ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Not expecting anything over here, today. But that lump of sub-10 uppers progged for late tonight/tomorrow might have some deep convection associated with it?

We live in hope!

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