Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 12th 2013>

[J10]

Hi guys,

Been working...what are snow prospects looking like in Login?

Sorry ask the will it snow question just need to know for my exam

The models keep changing, but possibly a little snow tomorrow, reverting back to rain.

Should be OK Monday morning as well.

[Snowmadsam]

So I'm guessing snow in the afternoon?

[bradymk]

And snowmadsam might see a Pembrokeshire dangler - he deserves it!

I am hoping, been a while

[J10]

So I'm guessing snow in the afternoon?

No the first band is arriving in the evening between 6-9pm, and I would imagine a bit of snow for you to start then possibly back to rain. But amounts are probably not going to be that great .

[Snowmadsam]

I'm guessing the real fun in Monday night for western Wales with that possible dangler..

[Frozone]

6c and heavy rain for monday, SNOWSANOGO face facts people!

[soupsurfer7]

6c and heavy rain for monday, SNOWSANOGO face facts people!

There are no facts when it comes to such a marginal situation

[Penfoel]

Sooo, my heavily in lamb ewes are still out, plenty of hay and some good hedged shelter. Do I risk leaving them out, or try to get them loaded and home (bearing in mind I can't yet get truck and trailer into/out of the field as it's so wet and muddy). Guys your input is invaluble to me here in Brynhoffnant. Many thanks for your helpful advice !

[bradymk]

I'm guessing the real fun in Monday night for western Wales with that possible dangler..

Hopefully, were not all that far away so hopefully we both will get something but certainly best chance for us is monday night unless the GFS verifies for late next week

[Snowmadsam]

Fingers crossed

[Wales123098]

So what is actually happening over the next few days. I'm a bit confused. I've got a really busy week in uni and I won't drive if the weather is bad. So I need to plan whether I'l be sending stuff over email etc. Are we getting disruptive snow down here by Monday morn? Realistically now.

[alijoe]

So what is actually happening over the next few days. I'm a bit confused. I've got a really busy week in uni and I won't drive if the weather is bad. So I need to plan whether I'l be sending stuff over email etc. Are we getting disruptive snow down here by Monday morn? Realistically now.

well from what I am reading (although everyone has so many different opinions) is that it will be fine for us. Apparently bbc showing milder temps and rain for most of wales..... like i said, i could be wrong and it could change, I don't really think anyone knows to be honest.

[Wales123098]

well from what I am reading (although everyone has so many different opinions) is that it will be fine for us. Apparently bbc showing milder temps and rain for most of wales..... like i said, i could be wrong and it could change, I don't really think anyone knows to be honest.

Such as confusing picture I really want some snow. The uncertainty is driving me mad tho.

[alijoe]

Such as confusing picture I really want some snow. The uncertainty is driving me mad tho.

Me too.... It really is a big let down isn't it if it does not come off for us? we have really been waiting the last month or so with the prosepcts of it will most probably be great for us all and it looks as though some of us may not see anything apart from rain. Although, it is proving so hard of course for anyone to really predict, guess anything is possible really, the weather will do what the weather wants to do....... downbeat though and bit fed up now with it all lol.

[matty lfc]

There's nothing to choose at the moment between 2-5cm of snow on Monday or persistent drizzle. It really is a toss of the coin at the moment and that is unbelievable given how close we are.

Warm air meeting cold is notoriously difficult to forecast

[J10]

Such as confusing picture I really want some snow. The uncertainty is driving me mad tho.

It has just started snowing outside, first flakes of the winter Woohoo.

IMO you are likely to see some snow tomorrow evening, and quite possibly it will stay as snow. But snow amounts are likely to be fairly small, there is NO Met Office snow warning for south Wales tomorrow/Monday at all

There are huge variations though between NMM and NAE as to make any definite statements. So I would very much keep watching forecasts/models for up to date news.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

ECM looking cold this week and then set ups High Pressure around weekend. Better than 00Hz run not as god as some of the others.

Byt he way Jamie, if you look under text box, there is an "View Auto Saved Content" which may have saved your post.

Cheers for that cant seem to find anything, will have to be more careful in the future

Allot of talk now about the mild sector on Monday. I really think that any snow will come in the form of that frontal system Sunday evening.

Lets look at the MO fax charts:

http://www.meteociel...ax24s.gif?12-12 < 24hrs (Sunday afternoon)

We see a warm front moving in from the NW with an occluded front behind it.

It's on the leading edge of that warm front where i believe the sleet and snow will be, rain to coastal W/SW as i mentioned earlier.

It then appears that the occluded front catches up and the warm sector is forced out as the front clears through and colder air floods in from the NW:

http://www.meteociel...ax36s.gif?12-12

So some back edge snow possible from that front.

At this current moment in time, snow accumulations seem unlikely away from the higher ground in Wales and perhaps Eastern Wales

Lets see what the NAE 18Z shows us later anyway.

[Marcus_surfer]

Light sleet here

[pyrotech]

one additional bit of good news is the graphics on bbc forecasts, based on Met office prediction so Mogreps must be showing better than NAE, taking account of the occluded front. Very positive but also a very close call. Watch for updates is only advice

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

It has just started snowing outside, first flakes of the winter Woohoo.

Light sleet here

Clouded over here in Morriston, Swansea. Hopefully with a bit of luck a flake or two soon.

[Icequeen]

Clouded over here in Morriston, Swansea. Hopefully with a bit of luck a flake or two soon.

I just went outside to check, hoping and wishing here in morriston too

[J10]

Lets see what the NAE 18Z shows us later anyway.

I think far too much is being made of the mild sector, the fact is it is smaller on the NAE 12Hz than the 06Hz run

I wouldn't be surprised if there is a bit of snow anywhere tomorrow at least of front edge. If we can get snow tonight, which has started to settle on car roof, at least until it stops. The chances are far better in more conducive conditions over the next few days.

Edit snow has now stopped, and thawed quickly, but at least have been outside when snow falling this winter. Hopefully the first of many (and better) events over coming days.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Jackone

[garethslee]

Hi all,

I have a Davis Weather Station situated in Port Talbot. It's pretty much at sea level. May be a decent baseline for you all.

It's here,

http://homepage.ntlworld.com/gareth.slee/weathernow/index.htm

[CRACKPOT]

Hi Guys,

Looks to me like us here in Wales are mostly going to be quite unlucky tomOrrow and Monday - or does someone have anything different that I have missed?

I have checked around everywhere and it seems like a downgrade for us and we have waited patiently with anticipation - to get a high Pressure and dry but cold/very cold and this is for most of the coming week. What went wrong, everything was looking so rosy.

JK

[J10]

Hi Guys,

Looks to me like us here in Wales are mostly going to be quite unlucky tomOrrow and Monday - or does someone have anything different that I have missed?

I have checked around everywhere and it seems like a downgrade for us and we have waited patiently with anticipation - to get a high Pressure and dry but cold/very cold and this is for most of the coming week. What went wrong, everything was looking so rosy.

JK

It still is looking very rosy, today's models have been far more positive than last nights. Good Chances tomorrow as well, as per my previous summaries.