Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 12th 2013>

[Frozone]

Rain has buggered off and now sunny here in Baglan. Just popped to tesco though and it feels really cold and windy too. Car was saying 5c.

[whiskers]

currently 3 degrees here,alot more windier than i expected,so perhaps tonight will be our time

[Snowangel-MK]

been on here all week,stil dont know whats happening,will it wont it,so many different opinions, so whats happening

No one will know for sure until it happens, best thing is to keep checking for any warnings and updates, watch the radar and look out of the window !

[mikeocarroll]

Slightly heavier burst brought sleet for a few minutes, now has petered out again. Encouraging for later though, also seems to be more precip further north than modelled.

[Liam Ellis]

Temperatures falling slowly here in the centre of Cardiff. Currently 4.5C , and was about 2C milder overnight, so there is a cold trend. We'll just have to wait and see.

[J10]

Meto Update

-

Sunday:

Frosty start. Then dry and bright with sunny spells. Increasing cloud through the afternoon will bring some snow through the evening and overnight, although rain likely near southwest coasts. Maximum Temperature 4 °C.

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:

Rain or snow on Monday, sometimes heavy, then drier later, but staying cold with wintry showers. On Tuesday and Wednesday many areas will be dry and bright, but cold.

-----

Seems more promising than earlier updates, hoping/expecting expanded Snow Warnings for at least parts of Wales for Sunday / Monday when issued later.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Jackone

[Jayfromcardiff]

Did anyone just see the BBC forecast? they had snow over most of Wales! somehow i don't understand they have 6 degrees and snow over Cardiff? We could see quite a bit of snow over the next few days, another westward shift and we could do well.

Tomorrow night into Monday looks like we could see a few cm before the main band on Monday which could produce alot more if all goes to plan.

Tuesday looks good also for a good few hours of snow over most of Wales which could give several cm of snow IMO.

Also - if we can get a bit of snow cover tomorrow night this will enhance our chances of snow Monday.

[Clare81]

Sleet with the odd snow flake here in Knighton. Was going to post 10mins ago but then it petered out but its started up again and this time I think the flakes might win.

[Jayne aka Pembsgal]

I'm in kilgetty, blue skies here no sign of snow clouds!

[andymusic]

Looking at the models this morning.(Longer Term)

GFS 00Hz -> better for the cold hanging on. cold throughout Colt throughout Medium Range, To T+192 (Next Sunday), with low pressures nearby for much of time. However Op run was in the coldeer ensembles from Friday onwards.

UKMO 00Hz -> Looks like a cold block all way though to T+144 (Fri), although T+120 showed possibilities of going to ECM outlook.

ECM 00Hz -.> Worse for cold hanging on, in summary, cold and unsettled till T+96 (Thu), cold with High Pressure (Fri), thereafter mild south westerlies. However Op run was in the milder ensembles for De Bilt at this time, most runs go for much colder.

GEM 00Hz -> Is a mix between above models, cold up to T+144, then cool with westerlies, bur never breaking though, and cold NE s thereafter.

So in summary., Turning Colder on Monday, with a chance of snow firstly from initial front and then from secondary low pressure - Note after Monday 850Hpa go below -5c (details on charts above showed by cold indication)

IMO Today's charts are better than yesterday in terms of snow potential this coming week, and IMO there will be a number of snow chances this week, not just today (unlikely now), initial front Monday, later on Monday etc. Good model agreement, staying cold to Next Thursday/Friday, then the disagreement starts.

Out Shortly - GFS 06Hz and NAE 06Hz, very much looking at heavy precipitation over southern Ireland from end of NAE 00Hz.

Edit - The NAE 06Hz was the one with the heavy precipitation over southern Ireland at end of run.

shouldn't bother with models in this situation - especially long term - just use them short term - i'd say two days max - and even at that length - take the model output with a pinch of salt! and then put the salt on your paths LOL

[andymusic]

Sleet with the odd snow flake here in Knighton. Was going to post 10mins ago but then it petered out but its started up again and this time I think the flakes might win.

ENJOY

[J10]

shouldn't bother with models in this situation - especially long term - just use them short term - i'd say two days max - and even at that length - take the model output with a pinch of salt! and then put the salt on your paths LOL

I'll remember that when you post your snow charts from the models.

Notice the warm sector missing most of Wales on both charts and should do as well when it passes through, maybe except far South West .

Being close to the tripole point, there should be some heavy precipitation perhaps this is the precipitation for Southern Ireland on NAE 6Hz, which should be across Wales later.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Jackone

[Marcus_surfer]

Still very mild 6C (in my books) , quite windy today too and brighter

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Looking at the MO fax charts & NAE 06Z you can see the occluded front arrive later on Sunday. MO Fax has SUB 528 dam air across most of Wales bar the far SW:

http://www.meteociel...fax48s.gif?11-0

Similar for what the NAE shows for the same time also:

http://expert-images...011400_1206.gif < 42hrs

Dew Points gradually rising as the flow turns to the WNW:

http://expert-images...011321_1206.gif < 39hrs 10m wind direction

Dew points below freezing in the east of Wales rising above freezing in the west.

http://expert-images...011321_1206.gif < 39hrs

http://expert-images...011400_1206.gif < 42hrs

http://expert-images...011403_1206.gif < 45hrs

Upper air temperatures across wales are forecast to be around -4 in the West to around -5C in the east of Wales:

http://expert-images...011321_1206.gif < Upper Air temps at 39hrs

So some initial snow likely for central and east Wales where the conditions are more favourable.

Some warnings have been updated on the MO now to include the risk of Snow to NE Wales.

[bradymk]

Being close to the tripole point, there should be some heavy precipitation perhaps this is the precipitation for Southern Ireland on NAE 6Hz, which should be across Wales later.

Hi Jack, do you think that the band of precip that moves into Wales on early Tuesday morning on GFS is the heavy band of precip on Southern Ireland on NAE 6z. If so, certainly a heavy band which could well produce some snow for Wales, (although im not so sure for my location currently)

[J10]

Looking at the MO fax charts & NAE 06Z you can see the occluded front arrive later on Sunday. MO Fax has SUB 528 dam air across most of Wales bar the far SW:

http://www.meteociel...fax48s.gif?11-0

Similar for what the NAE shows for the same time also:

http://expert-images...011400_1206.gif < 42hrs

Dew Points gradually rising as the flow turns to the WNW:

http://expert-images...011321_1206.gif < 39hrs 10m wind direction

Dew points below freezing in the east of Wales rising above freezing in the west.

http://expert-images...011321_1206.gif < 39hrs

http://expert-images...011400_1206.gif < 42hrs

http://expert-images...011403_1206.gif < 45hrs

Upper air temperatures across wales are forecast to be around -4 in the West to around -5C in the east of Wales:

http://expert-images...011321_1206.gif < Upper Air temps at 39hrs

So some initial snow likely for central and east Wales where the conditions are more favourable.

Some warnings have been updated on the MO now to include the risk of Snow to NE Wales.

The main snow chance to me comes with the 2nd band pushing in later in the day (Shown over Southern Ireland), with the Dew Points starting to drop once more as colder air pushes in from the North West.

http://expert-images...011403_1206.gif < 45hrs

http://expert-images...011406_1206.gif < 48hrs

The latest BBC Forecast has snow for most of Wales, as we are generally North of the Warm Sector.

Given the NAE I am surprised that the Snow Warnings were not updated, the intensity of the likely precipitation moving SE into Monday could possibly mean decent snowfalls.

http://expert-images...011406_1206.gif

Fingers crossed that this turns out positive for most of us, there are reasons why it can and reasons why it won't atm.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Jackone

[J10]

Hi Jack, do you think that the band of precip that moves into Wales on early Tuesday morning on GFS is the heavy band of precip on Southern Ireland on NAE 6z. If so, certainly a heavy band which could well produce some snow for Wales, (although im not so sure for my location currently)

No the band moves away by Monday noon even on GFS.

GFS is showing another band of precipitation, perhaps streamers, I do think there will be a number of chances this week.

[pyrotech]

Yes news 24 forecast is a mega upgrade for us in Wales, just had a look at last nights , Was rain from the Brecon Beacons Southwards.

This goes along with the forecast that the fronts become occluded before reaching us, sending warm sector further South, far enough South to give many Northern parts of Southwest England snow also. Obviously its still a forecast but we are getting into more reliable timeframe, plus an upgrade is an upgrade

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

The main snow chance to me comes with the 2nd band pushing in later in the day (Shown over Southern Ireland), with the Dew Points starting to drop once more as colder air pushes in from the North West.

Indeed, certainly very interesting weather for the next week. When looking at that 2nd band of more intense precipitation which is also going to assist you can see a slight mild sector still:

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs513.gif < 51hrs Precipitation

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs512.gif < Upper 850's

They do lower as the front clears through so some back edge snow:

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs542.gif

Of course this is only the GFS take on the situation so will be interesting to see what the NAE shows us later tonight for its 18z run. But i would agree that mild sector has been pushed somewhat SW over the last few days, so lets see if such a trend continues.

[J10]

I think here we are a seeing a difference between NAE and GFS. NAE has largely occluded the main front, while GFS has a small "warm" sector over much of the UK,

If you look at the 850Hpa chart

http://expert-images...011406_1206.gif

You can 850Hpa temps of -5c and tracing it back over Ireland, they would probably be -4c at worst, apart from the far SW, as it moves SE.

Further west, the warm sector has 850HPa temps of -2 to -3c, and this should miss Wales to the South West.

To me there is a clear disparity between the current TV maps showing snow for much of Wales and the Snow Warnings which largely evade Wales

The other day I thought the Snow Warnings for today were over exaggerated, and today I think the snow warnings for Wales for Monday are under exaggerated, knowing my luck it only works one way.

I still think it if we miss out on this, and other areas do look less marginal, there will be other snow chances, including Monday into Tuesday.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Jackone

[georgiedre]

Reports on facebook say that there snow showers in nw wales!

[Wales123098]

Just 2.8c now and falling. Don't know about dew points but not far off the temp when it's possible for snow. I just wanna see it falling don't care about sticking. We had a small dusting at start of December.

[Ms_Natalie]

5 degrees in Newport and sleet is falling. On my way home to the valleys now where im sure it'll be a little colder. Usually a 2 degree difference. Sky is very white!

[Wales123098]

temp rising for some reason. 3.4c now

[Ms_Natalie]

Snowing in cefn fforest, blackwood! Nice fluffy flakes! Im happy now!