Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 12th 2013>

[Snowangel-MK]

Croeso, here is a new thread to discuss your regional weather and local observations....

The forum is extremely busy at the moment so you might have noticed one or two features including the member’s locations have been temporarily switched off to save resources on the servers, all you regular contributors in this region probably know where each other are located but it might help any newbys or visitors if you could add your location to your signature, it’s nice to know where everyone is especially when you are reporting snow (for anyone not sure how to do this go to Edit Profile, Signature, Edit and Save).

Also this a very good time to think about getting the NW radar if you haven’t already got it, a one month subscription is just £3.49

https://www.netweath...session_timeout

Please try to keep the thread topical - Diolch

Link to the previous one here…

http://forum.netweat...n/page__st__760

Edited January 12, 2013 by MKsnowangel

[andymusic]

temp is now about 6c - and light/heavy rain - couple of degrees drop and we'll have sleet/snow

[Snowangel-MK]

temp is now about 6c - and light/heavy rain - couple of degrees drop and we'll have sleet/snow

Good luck....

[Bonjangle]

Well ty MKsnowangel , well i just done my Pubrun .. lol and its blady freezing outside ...so all in all Wales is going to have rain? Nah lots and lots of Snow , its gonna be a nationwide for the uk , even the SW of wales .. how can some peeps in the MOD moosh this down , we are in the firing line for it .. be prepared and shovels are a ready ... Monday -Tuesday -Wednesday -----------------------------we will get the White stuff

[andymusic]

Well ty MKsnowangel , well i just done my Pubrun .. lol and its blady freezing outside ...so all in all Wales is going to have rain? Nah lots and lots of Snow , its gonna be a nationwide for the uk , even the SW of wales .. how can some peeps in the MOD moosh this down , we are in the firing line for it .. be prepared and shovels are a ready ... Monday -Tuesday -Wednesday -----------------------------we will get the White stuff

just bought mine from tescos tonight - brilliant proper snow shovel - lol

[Jackfrost]

As expected, the cold air has shifted slightly westwards in the latest run.

[mikeocarroll]

NW radar suggests band of precip catching the mid-East of Wales is falling as snow - in the Knighton area or Montgomery area perhaps - can anyone confirm? Passed frustratingly just to the east of me here near Llandrindod Wells. Current temp here is 2.7c and deqpoint is 0.6c, not sure if that precip band will eventually turn and come back. There's also quite a significant precip banf along south Wales / M4 corridor at the moment but I would expect that is mostl rain.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Praying for the snow Monday, after following the models for over a week it's starting to become frustrating with all the changes - at one stage it was looking good now slightly marginal. What's everyone's thoughts for Monday?

[andymusic]

Praying for the snow Monday, after following the models for over a week it's starting to become frustrating with all the changes - at one stage it was looking good now slightly marginal. What's everyone's thoughts for Monday?

Jay - CONFIDENCE - IT WILL SNOW and IT WILL SNOW BY THE BUCKET LOAD - just you wait and see!

It's still rainish up here - quite heavy too - but I'm expecting this to TURN to sleet/snow - anytime now - I will keep all posted as and when it does - OVER AND OUT! LOL - It has to snow now - cause I bought me extra special snow shovel from TESCOS LOL

Edited January 12, 2013 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

Watching the model output is better than watching soaps this will it or won"it snow scenario most of Wales in with a shout on latest NAE

[keithlucky]

NW radar suggests band of precip catching the mid-East of Wales is falling as snow - in the Knighton area or Montgomery area perhaps - can anyone confirm? Passed frustratingly just to the east of me here near Llandrindod Wells. Current temp here is 2.7c and deqpoint is 0.6c, not sure if that precip band will eventually turn and come back. There's also quite a significant precip banf along south Wales / M4 corridor at the moment but I would expect that is mostl rain.

Can confirm Mike the band that over the midlands has turned to snow the rest is rain at the moment.

[pyrotech]

Looking in midlqnds forum lots of snow reports near welsh border shewsbury dudley etc very positive start o the day. BRECON BEACONS?

[keithlucky]

Looking in midlqnds forum lots of snow reports near welsh border shewsbury dudley etc very positive start o the day. BRECON BEACONS?

Yes Pyro looks like the precipatation sticks around South Wales most of the day should see our first snowflake LOL.

[Wales123098]

Well it's colder than predicted. 3.9c. Slowly falling. Raining. Still it's about 2c colder than metoffice predicted

[TonyH]

Jay - CONFIDENCE - IT WILL SNOW and IT WILL SNOW BY THE BUCKET LOAD - just you wait and see!

It's still rainish up here - quite heavy too - but I'm expecting this to TURN to sleet/snow - anytime now - I will keep all posted as and when it does - OVER AND OUT! LOL - It has to snow now - cause I bought me extra special snow shovel from TESCOS LOL

That's cursed it then!

[Stevetynant]

4.1C in the Rhymney Valley at the moment - drizzle outside but like Andy I've got my snow shovel aswel - half price in Asda which is still expensive if it sits in the shed doing nothing for 2 years.

This really is a roller coaster of a ride. Got a stargazing night out on the top of Blaenavon tonight - whats the chances?

[Snowangel-MK]

I've got my snow shovel aswel - half price in Asda which is still expensive if it sits in the shed doing nothing for 2 years.

Nothing like positive thinking is there

I hope you get to use it soon

[Bafan]

there's defo a bit of sleetiness here in Tredegar. More rain then anything though

[J10]

Looking at the models this morning.(Longer Term)

GFS 00Hz -> better for the cold hanging on. cold throughout Colt throughout Medium Range, To T+192 (Next Sunday), with low pressures nearby for much of time. However Op run was in the coldeer ensembles from Friday onwards.

UKMO 00Hz -> Looks like a cold block all way though to T+144 (Fri), although T+120 showed possibilities of going to ECM outlook.

ECM 00Hz -.> Worse for cold hanging on, in summary, cold and unsettled till T+96 (Thu), cold with High Pressure (Fri), thereafter mild south westerlies. However Op run was in the milder ensembles for De Bilt at this time, most runs go for much colder.

GEM 00Hz -> Is a mix between above models, cold up to T+144, then cool with westerlies, bur never breaking though, and cold NE s thereafter.

So in summary., Turning Colder on Monday, with a chance of snow firstly from initial front and then from secondary low pressure - Note after Monday 850Hpa go below -5c (details on charts above showed by cold indication)

IMO Today's charts are better than yesterday in terms of snow potential this coming week, and IMO there will be a number of snow chances this week, not just today (unlikely now), initial front Monday, later on Monday etc. Good model agreement, staying cold to Next Thursday/Friday, then the disagreement starts.

Out Shortly - GFS 06Hz and NAE 06Hz, very much looking at heavy precipitation over southern Ireland from end of NAE 00Hz.

Edit - The NAE 06Hz was the one with the heavy precipitation over southern Ireland at end of run.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Jackone

[bradymk]

Hi guys, latest GFS rolling out, a slight westwards movement of the low gives Wales a good chance of seeing some light snow tomorrow evening before the warm sector arrives later on in the night. The next interesting point for me is Tuesday morning once the front has moved away and a pulse of rain (possibly showers, hard to tell on GFS) moves into Wales. This would more than likely be snow so one to watch. However I am not sure if this is just GFS, show look out for anything on NAE next few runs. It is at t72 currently.

[whiskers]

been on here all week,stil dont know whats happening,will it wont it,so many different opinions, so whats happening

[Ms_Natalie]

Raining here in Newport (working this morning) but pretty chilly..grey clouds moving away...buy some white fluffy ones in the distance! Wow...could I be any more scientific? Hehe.

Morning guys!

[A_T]

Snowing lightly here near Wrexham - not doing much but some large flakes

Edited January 12, 2013 by A_T

[whiskers]

fingers crossed for those fluffy ones,wil be praying hard,come on snow!just hope it wont be a waste,cant see it sticking if it does

[mikeocarroll]

Hi guys, latest GFS rolling out, a slight westwards movement of the low gives Wales a good chance of seeing some light snow tomorrow evening before the warm sector arrives later on in the night. The next interesting point for me is Tuesday morning once the front has moved away and a pulse of rain (possibly showers, hard to tell on GFS) moves into Wales. This would more than likely be snow so one to watch. However I am not sure if this is just GFS, show look out for anything on NAE next few runs. It is at t72 currently.

One thing that's beneficial is the timing, as it looks like the warmer sector is like you say arriving in the night - can make a big difference as opposed to daytime in marginal situations.

Meanwhile, light drizzle has reached us here in Mid Powys, no sign of sleet or snow but I'll keep you posted if that changes. Temp is 2.5c, dp 0.4c.