Scotland Regional Discussion - January 12th 2013>

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Och dinnae fash yersels folks.

Whit's fir ye'll no pass ye bye.

HC: Aye, yer right, probably need tae be the loft or a big tree for 4 m.

[doctormog]

does anyone know the latest verification stats for the models

Based on the last month or so, at both day 5 and 6 the UKMO model is leading the way: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/acz5.html

More especially so at day 6: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/acz6.html

[edo]

Where is best to view our uppers and wind direction for Tuesday and Wednesday ?

Had a little shower with some hail mixed in

i use weatheronline

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=t850&HH=6&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=

select 850 for uppers and your model of choice

remember to look at 950s aswell and you want at least zero and hopefully below and select nae model then rain/snow for precipitation

[Buriedundersnow]

Based on the last month or so, at both day 5 and 6 the UKMO model is leading the way: http://www.emc.ncep..../html/acz5.html

More especially so at day 6: http://www.emc.ncep..../html/acz6.html

cheers.

thats good to see cos the UKMO is showing the best outcome for us out of all the models

[GraemeB]

Darren's latest video forecast on the BBC is still very very snowy for most of us over Sunday and Monday - toorp status on hold...

[BleakMidwinter]

Well, I can't keep up with the forecast-changes... but I do know I just went out for a walk and came back with my face feeling really cold and glowy

Whatever else we may or may not get, that's January out there, that is!

Now, how do I rig a 4-metre flagpole in the attic to go and sit up the top of for the 100m snow?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Hard to deny that this event has downgraded, however it has done so because the low has tracked further south, thus keeping the coldest air locked in and allowing the cold to continue into next week. Without this we could have been left in a much worse setup with the Atlantic coming back as some GFS runs showed, so overall I'd say it's probably worth it longer term.

Darren's latest video forecast on the BBC is still very very snowy for most of us over Sunday and Monday - toorp status on hold...

Well that could be quite significant since I'd imagine it's probably based on the latest MOGREPS/NAE rather than the earlier one. We'll see when the raw NAE comes out in a few minutes.

[Isolated Frost]

Here is the highly interesting MeteoGroup prediction for snow fall for Monday

[mistyqueen]

Here is the highly interesting MeteoGroup prediction for snow fall for Monday

Aye, nae white stuff for Skye by the look o' things! Ach well, maybe anither day then. We have light cloud here, nae rain, temp at 4 degrees. Hope you all enjoy the white stuff when it arrives!

[Snowplough33]

Hard to deny that this event has downgraded, however it has done so because the low has tracked further south, thus keeping the coldest air locked in and allowing the cold to continue into next week. Without this we could have been left in a much worse setup with the Atlantic coming back as some GFS runs showed, so overall I'd say it's probably worth it longer term.

Well that could be quite significant since I'd imagine it's probably based on the latest MOGREPS/NAE rather than the earlier one. We'll see when the raw NAE comes out in a few minutes.

Could you please post once out as I'm viewing on phone. Ta

[LomondSnowstorm]

A modest upgrade up to 12Z Sunday so far, milder air struggling to get into the far west quite as quickly and therefore more snowfall potential from the first band:

Thanks for posting that IF, looks interesting, not far off the snow line either for Freuchie or Edinburgh.

Everything a bit further west too, more similar to last night's 18Z run, which is a good thing:

Edited January 12, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[Stormeh]

Here is the highly interesting MeteoGroup prediction for snow fall for Monday

That chart dont look to good for the glasgow area. I am working on east kilbride on monday so i may see snow up there

[LomondSnowstorm]

FAR better looking at +30:

If that comes off most of us will have some kind of snow cover which might protect us from the worst of the warm sector. East coast and the highlands hanging onto the colder air at +33:

Major east coast snowfall at that time:

Brilliant, game on again!

Edited January 12, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[LomondSnowstorm]

By midnight, temperatures still between 0C and 2C everywhere.

This is exactly the upgrade we needed, it wasn't huge but it's just enough for what would be a big snowfall for the east coast.

Interestingly this is also an upgrade for everywhere else since the front is more active and would give significant snowfall to all of England and even into Wales too now. The warning is bound to be put back on for tomorrow's snow if this is still present in the 18Zs.

Edited January 12, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[Stormeh]

Good stuff LS, does it look better for Glasgow? I know it will snow in East Kilbride, it always does in these situations but not sure about my area. I will be going to work on monday afternoon up in EK so it might be fun and games getting there

[GraemeB]

[Snowplough33]

FAR better looking at +30:

If that comes off most of us will have some kind of snow cover which might protect us from the worst of the warm sector. East coast and the highlands hanging onto the colder air at +33:

Major east coast snowfall at that time:

Brilliant, game on again!

Thanks LS. Permission to ramp a little or shall we await further info?

When you go further out, how long does the precip last ? Do we have a stall ?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Good stuff LS, does it look better for Glasgow? I know it will snow in East Kilbride, it always does in these situations but not sure about my area. I will be going to work on monday afternoon up in EK so it might be fun and games getting there

It looks better, should be front edge snow at least but the milder air isn't held back quite enough to stop some backedge sleet and rain unfortunately. Looks like it'll freeze up after though so what cover is left would be intact.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Thanks LS. Permission to ramp a little or shall we await further info?

When you go further out, how long does the precip last ? Do we have a stall ?

It stalls up to about midnight then moves out into the North Sea, which is probably a good thing as uppers get a bit iffy by then (maybe not for you though):

Cold air coming back in by morning:

And I'd wait for the 18Zs just to be sure - if it can change in one direction it can change back almost as easily, although time is on our side on this one.

Edited January 12, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[Buriedundersnow]

A modest upgrade up to 12Z Sunday so far, milder air struggling to get into the far west quite as quickly and therefore more snowfall potential from the first band:

Thanks for posting that IF, looks interesting, not far off the snow line either for Freuchie or Edinburgh.

Everything a bit further west too, more similar to last night's 18Z run, which is a good thing:

is that where u stay fruechie

[LomondSnowstorm]

is that where u stay fruechie

Yeah, although I'm staying in Edinburgh for uni so I'll be back there tomorrow. Could be a fun drive!

[cragonmore]

By midnight, temperatures still between 0C and 2C everywhere.

This is exactly the upgrade we needed, it wasn't huge but it's just enough for what would be a big snowfall for the east coast.

Interestingly this is also an upgrade for everywhere else since the front is more active and would give significant snowfall to all of England and even into Wales too now. The warning is bound to be put back on for tomorrow's snow if this is still present in the 18Zs.

LS thanks again for keeping us informed and interpreting models as they come out. Model Thread a nightmare to make any sense of as everyone jumps in with polar opposite statements about what's happening. Anyway my comments earlier about disappointment of downgrade was on the assumption that as as the Met O had started to downgrade our warnings and for next 48 hours was on the basis they would have access to data which gave them a bit more certainty. It will be interesting to see if they change and/or upgrade warnings tonight based on 12z and hopefully 18z outputs.

Still damp and cold here with occasional fine drizzle and ice rain.

[Stormeh]

Cheers LS, will just have to wait and see what happens

Good luck to those further east. I hope u all get a good dumping and i want to see lots of snowy pics

[Buriedundersnow]

my mate stays there u might know her seen as its only a wee place her names claire morgan

[LomondSnowstorm]

The east coast never really loses the 950hpa cold on this run and it returns to the west by the end too:

Second front is exceptionally well placed for the eastern Borders, Angus and Aberdeenshire:

Very icy for the west coast by Monday morning: