Scotland Regional Discussion - January 12th 2013>

[LomondSnowstorm]

So likely that the first belt may be sleet ??

Watching the bbc forecast just there, looks to a reasonable second band through the night Sunday that may still be around Monday? Prep type at this point unknown I guess

Initially snow, perhaps turning to sleet as it lightens, more likely for the central belt than further north though so I think Dundee northwards are likely to see it remaining as snow. The second band will be interesting, likely to stall for quite a while through Monday I reckon, and the uppers are sub -5C so it should be fine.

[howham]

Temp 1.9C/ DP -0.3C and falling. Wet snow.

[BurntFishTrousers]

I remember that day for the sheer chaos! The snow accumulated very quickly (very exciting!) and by late morning Barrhead (where I was working that day) was in full evacuation mode. I tried several routes out of town but despite being able to whizz around in my new winter tyres, kept being stopped by the gridlocks of those who didn't have them. Eventually decided to give up, park the car and walk back to Clarkston. Every road was blocked with traffic jams. Gritters stuck with nowhere to go. Have never seen chaos like it. Although it took me a long time to get to my flat, I heard from colleagues who stayed with their cars that it took up to 11 hours to drive a few miles.

We did get an amazing amount of snow though...... *sighs in hope*

My wife caused a major traffic jam that day getting stuck going up hill. Still trying to clear the backlog since

[drm]

Still just good old cold rain in this part of the city ("lower Hilton" LOL)

thats the fun with aberdeen snow watching lol ive seen rain at footdee and 3c 3 miles up to sheddocksley its a foot of snow and 0c

[Snooz]

Good stuff. Still rain here but the temperature and dew point are on a slow steady decline, or at least they have been over the last few hours.

Dew Point here now 1.1C - and we finally have sleet

Temp 1.9C/ DP -0.3C and falling. Wet snow.

What a difference a few miles is making! Temp 2.2C/1.1C DP

couple hours behind you

According to raintoday, the precip seems to be stalling/increasing right over the top of us all in Aberdeen/shire specially southwards, just need that cold to set in proper now

.. more snow than rain in the ongoing shower right now..

Edited January 12, 2013 by Snooz

[Soaring Hawk]

My wife caused a major traffic jam that day getting stuck going up hill. Still trying to clear the backlog since

Oh dear. Was she the woman who turned from a group trying to push her car up a hill and shouted "how the fe*k is she able to drive up like that?" I swear she shook a fist at me...

[edo]

Thanks LS, temp has started to drop a bit & DP is now -0.3 so heading in the right direction

goodstuff Ally I need u guys to do this spadework as im home alone till 3pm with the 3 sprogs so can basically just about read this thread before daddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddy i need ..........................................(insert anything they dont reaaly need)

heading to Dundee at 3 so will be reporting from there later

[doctormog]

Disappointingly the latest TAF and indeed BBC forecasts show only rain here now. Things seem to have gone to a decidedly less snowy outlook in Aberdeen over the last few hours - I wonder if it is now factoring in the North Sea effect or just that the more specific details at a shorter time period has pushed things to the wrong side of marginal. It could be very frustrating!

[Ravelin]

Aye just seen tap o' Bennachie is white, not really any good at estimating snow line but mebbee 400m+?

so perhaps not too far away if you're also getting the sleetiness Howham.. GL everyone

- our Footie is in Aberdeen tomorrow so still might get it played before the fun starts

Difficult to see due to it being partially shrouded in cloud when I was out earlier but I'd say 350-400m as Millstone Hill (to the left of Bennachie) is 408m high and had wet looking snow on the top. It was a definate mix of rain and sleet with temp around 2 degC.

Still no call off of the footy game at Bogbeth so it's going to be fun standing on the sidelines today. Everything warm and waterproof I have will be getting worn.

Ravelin

[BurntFishTrousers]

Having seen latest forecasts, I too am reporting for snaw duty.

[lorenzo]

I think the usual "Newmachar" rule may apply (snow to the west/ sleet or rain to the east)... Hoping for something today here.

Funny that is exactly where I am going !!

[sn0wman]

What's happened to the Met Office warnings? Snow warning has been removed for most of the country on Sunday, and replaced with an ice warning for light sleet and snow, with slight accumulations above 200m. I was expecting an upgrade to an amber warning or something?

Link here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=6&lon=-4.50&lat=55.74&fcTime=1357992000

[Snow Monster]

The updated Met Office warnings look as though they have been downgraded now talking about accumulations only above 200m.

[GraemeB]

METO downgraded the warning for Sunday night/Monday to ice only for us...

Permission to TOORP sir ?

Edited January 12, 2013 by GraemeB

[Allyw12]

Disappointingly the latest TAF and indeed BBC forecasts show only rain here now. Things seem to have gone to a decidedly less snowy outlook in Aberdeen over the last few hours - I wonder if it is now factoring in the North Sea effect or just that the more specific details at a shorter time period has pushed things to the wrong side of marginal. It could be very frustrating!

Why are BBC downgrading the snow? I thought the last few models run upgraded the snow for Scotland for Sunday/Monday.

EDIT: Saw METO have most of Scotland covered with ice warrings for Monday and England have Snow Warrings for Monday now :-(

Edited January 12, 2013 by Allyw12

[LomondSnowstorm]

Hmm, I'm not sure about that, I would've thought this:

would be snowy at low ground for most. I can see the risk of it turning to sleet and rain at low levels later on though with that warmer sector pushing in from the west, though how far east this is likely to reach is hard to determine. We really do need to start seeing some kind of westward movement of the pattern though and a slowing of the movement of the fronts to avoid the warm sectors here. Still entirely possible at this stage.

[Snowlover2]

Why are BBC downgrading the snow? I thought the last few models run upgraded the snow for Scotland for Sunday/Monday.

EDIT: Saw METO have most of Scotland covered with ice warrings for Monday and England have Snow Warrings for Monday now :-(

Can remember in 2001/2002 meto removed a snow warning. I left work at 9pm to absolute chaos. All buses cancelled and I had to walk 4 miles home in heavy snow.

[sn0wman]

Ughhhh, this is so disappointing after all the build up. Hopefully the Met Office are completely wrong, as they seem to be going against most of the models, their own fax charts, and their regional forecasts. Here is the regional forecast for Central, Tayside & Fife for Sunday:

Some dry and bright spells at first but very cold with temperatures struggling to rise much above freezing. Outbreaks of snow spreading from the west in the afternoon, prolonged later. Maximum temperature 3 °C.

[M1245]

The precipitation charts still seem to have some pretty heavy snow over the fife area tomorrow and then into Monday but the BBC have downgraded the amount expected.

[Sraigcaife]

Looks like this cold spell isn't going to be quite as cold as we all thought, certainly no '-20c in altnaharra' like we saw a few years back yet.

Maybe it's just the start of something though..........

It's been fairly dull here all day with grey cloud rolling off the North Sea eastwards and a temp of 3c.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Can remember in 2001/2002 meto removed a snow warning. I left work at 9pm to absolute chaos. All buses cancelled and I had to walk 4 miles home in heavy snow.

Yes, snow warnings from the MO aren't exactly the be all and end all. It's a very difficult situation to try and forecast and I'm going to hold off a definite forecast until after the 12Zs come out. Still plenty of opportunities to come - bits of convective stuff through into tonight, the initial band tomorrow (which will certainly start off as snow whatever else happens), the second band on Monday morning and then potentially further precipitation through the day, which would probably be falling as snow as well. By Monday evening we then move into a colder easterly flow with deeper cold uppers and the potential for a much better convective snowfall for eastern parts at least, and then we either have a continuation of the cold or we get a snowy breakdown followed by the potential for another good cold spell down the line

[blitzen]

3.4c/1.4c/SE. That's the only accurate thing that I feel I can post at the mo! Serious case of model fatigue for me now - due to all the confusion I think. I am now officially resigned to looking out of my window to see what does or does not fall from the sky!

[doctormog]

3.4c/1.4c/SE. That's the only accurate thing that I feel I can post at the mo! Serious case of model fatigue for me now - due to all the confusion I think. I am now officially resigned to looking out of my window to see what does or does not fall from the sky!

I agree and think you probably have the best possible approach at the moment. Frankly with such conflicting and changing details it is really impossible to know what specifics to expect.

[edo]

The METO last year often took down there weather warnings before adjusting them so often looked like it had all been taken off but for some reason went off before updated information was posted.... given the warning has been there for 24hrs and the threat is very much there i would be surprised to see it removed.........althoughdewpoint risen 2c in last hour to 3.6????? eeeekhaving now read the METO it does seem like they dont agree with the NAE and talk of light snow above 200m... i wonder if they think that front is going to seperate with 1 front hitting NW Scotland and the other hitting NW England...Im in trouble promised the kids snow showers sometime this weekend and if not certainly Monday.....hmm i could be in trouble

Edited January 12, 2013 by edodfc

[NorthernRab]

-1'C here at the moment so perhaps looking like an ice day!