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Summer Sun

Cold weather, posible heavy snow Saturday 10th Feb 2013 onwards

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After a week of uncertainty the UK is now into a cold spell with some bitter temperatures on the way Sunday may struggle to get above freezing for some, into next week and attention turns to the possibility of heavy snow on Monday as a band of rain moves north west to south east as this hits the cold air snow will fall there is also the potential for another snow event on Wednesday as more rain moves west to east

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Note: The text is for the chart below.

Snow for Wales and parts of south west and the far north west of England

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Snow continues for the above places, and moves into the SE,

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Snow moves parts of the North Monday rush hour,

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Snow becomes widespread Monday evening, snow for all of Northern England apart from some Eastern areas, more snow for Wales and parts of southwest, plus parts of west midlands.

prectypeuktopo.png

9pm on Monday snow for all of Northern England apart from some western parts, snow for Midlands quite widespread,

prectypeuktopo.png

Snow continues for places mentioned above, including south central places,

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Into the early hours of Tuesday snow is confined to south central and parts of East midlands,

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Early morning widespread snow in south apart from South West and far SE

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into rush hour Tuesday Morning, snow continues for south west midlands, central south and south East,

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Into Tuesday lunch time Snow continues for central south, SE, south west England and parts of East Wales,

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Into Tuesday Snow then confined to south east,

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Still snowing in parts of SE into Monday evening.

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In Summary, most parts of England, Wales and Scotland will see snow from Monday-Tuesday, apart from far SW England. Significant and disruptive snow likely in places, especially in SE England.

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When the models are chopping and changing as much as they are at the moment (due to SSW?) is there any point at all in trying to pinpoint areas of precipitation at this range? I mean, sure, do it if that floats you boat, but I would happily engage on a 100-1 bet with anyone that all areas of precipitation don't happen exactly the way they are shown more than 48 hours out (within correct 3-hour timescales and within, say, 50 miles for where the snow actually falls), because the upstream and the 500mB pattern is so volatile at the moment. Later on, if a less volatile pattern sets up and we get a nice feed of streamers of the NE then the bets are off, then it's Lincs, the NE, E Scotland and Kent etc.

I think we're all going to see plenty of the white stuff over the next 4 weeks, by the way, even the far SW, Ireland etc. I think there is even enough potential in this upcoming spell for our little group of islands to be completely obliterated at some point by white pixels on the NH map for snow cover. But I wouldn't try forecasting precipitation in detail beyond 24 hours right now.

Maybe I'm just being mean. Have some fun... smile.png

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Re to the above yes there could / will be travel disruption widely but the SE is likely to see the snow arrive for the rush hour hence greater risk of Major disruption on Monday evening

Into Wednesday and round 2 for possible significant snowfall

Starts in the west, south west England could miss the snow and get rain instead (details very low at this stage)

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By 9am is continues to spread east

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By lunchtime is slowly moves east and continues to intensify on its back edge

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By 18:00 it continues to spread east but only slowly as it moves close to London

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By 00:00 it slowly dies out

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So Monday and Wednesday could both see the first widespread and significant snowfalls of this winter as the UK becomes a battleground between rain pushing in from the west and the cold air hanging on for the bulk of the UK

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if Wednesday event comes off what are the amounts of snow we could expect in the w midlands?

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if Wednesday event comes off what are the amounts of snow we could expect in the w midlands?

Very hard to predict amounts this far out but 5cm to 10cm maybe as a general estimate at this stage

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Using the NMM model which is run in high res this is what it shows for the whole of Saturday

Saturday Morning Snow likely over Northern England and parts of Scotland,

Saturday Afternoon still snow and sleet in parts of Scotland Northern England and sleet showing over Wales,

Saturday Evening wintry weather continues in Northern parts of the UK and Southern Wales see some of it as well,

Saturday Night heavy snow passes through Northern England and still snowing for parts of Scotland meanwhile Southern parts of England get some wintry weather,

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michael fish does not know what it is going to do! i think it is too changeable nice to see some snow not just over the tops

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Well the first part of the jigsaw is in place in the SE (Eastbourne) as we have had over 9.6mm of rain since the early hours here.

Just need that to get colder and those fronts to start moving in and........

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Fascinating to watch unfold. What are the best estimates for how long the cold spell looks likely to last?

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one thing we will be able to do is actually follow the front and low centre through Sunday into Monday-Tuesday on the actual charts and perhaps derive some basic outlooks for 6-12 hours ahead from looking at the various actual data we have access to.

Be interesting to see how closely it fits with the current output of Fax charts. They will of course change as the senior man assesses and tweaks them to fit what he can see happening along with his computer guidance.

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I wouldn't worry too muhch Snowflak88. They're having a tought time getting to grips with it themselves:

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

Kind regards

Mike.

thanks...i think maybe im just getting a little too obsessed with any snow potential lol, i need to take a few steps back i think lol

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Sunday outlook using high res model NMM

Sunday morning heavy snow across most of Scotland mainly the Highlands also some snow over Northern England,

Sunday afternoon snow continuing over Scotland and the far North of England, but also see some snow in South Eastern England,

Sunday evening snow still falling in parts of Scotland but the main band of snow is over most of Northern England and parts of Wales,

Sunday night starts to dry up in Scotland but still seeing wintry weather there but the main stuff is further South over Northern England, Wales and the Midlands.

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Not amounting to much but it's been snowing very lightly for the last few hours, temp hovering around 1c. Nice to see the white stuff falling smile.png

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Nothing falling here yet but it is white with frost, if it has been falling where you are in Cumbria for that long then it can't be far from me now.

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Well it's stopped snowing here and the little bit that did manage to settle has gone! Still looking good for many of us over the coming week, looks like the cold is here to stay but how long for is still unknown. Lets hope for a long extension into February :)

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Front fizzling out as it moves south east so not likely to produce anything of note. Shouldn't cause much trouble for the morning rush hour except this is the UK and a single snow flake causes choas.

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Monday's forecast using high res model NMM,

Monday morning snow mainly over the Midlands and Eastern parts of England but also a mixture of sleet and snow for some parts of Northern England and Scotland,

Monday afternoon a mixture of sleet and snow for some parts of Scotland and snow or sleet for Eastern England,

Monday evening starts to dry up across the South of the UK but Scotland and Northern England are at risk of some heavy snow showers forming at this point,

Monday night parts of England and Scotland still at risk of heavy snow showers forming,

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Monday's forecast using high res model NMM,

Monday morning snow mainly over the Midlands and Eastern parts of England but also a mixture of sleet and snow for some parts of Northern England and Scotland,

Monday afternoon a mixture of sleet and snow for some parts of Scotland and snow or sleet for Eastern England,

Monday evening starts to dry up across the South of the UK but Scotland and Northern England are at risk of some heavy snow showers forming at this point,

Monday night parts of England and Scotland still at risk of heavy snow showers forming,

That goes completely against the latest forecast on Country file 15 minutes ago. Country File holds firm of heavy snow (possible very heavy with totals really building up) tomorrow afternoon in North east England in particular with snow along the east from Edinburgh right down to Norwich

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That goes completely against the latest forecast on Country file 15 minutes ago. Country File holds firm of heavy snow (possible very heavy with totals really building up) tomorrow afternoon in North east England in particular with snow along the east from Edinburgh right down to Norwich

Will be interesting to see who is right we will find out soon :)

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Well the 2nd band of light Rain Sleet and Snow working it's way across the country whether it will weaken like the last front only time will tell.

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