North West England Regional Discussion 11/01/13 ------->

[annamb]

the lack of activity on this thread says it all really

Hoping for a move west wards overnight *crosses fingers*

[johnwirral]

NAE starting to be a bit better for those west of the m6?

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

[Cheshire Freeze]

Still time to change though CC

but yes i agree on this run west of manchester rain/sleet at best

C.S

Getting sick of it, even the end of next week seems to be downgraded now. Starting to forget what snow looks like!

[cheshire snow]

the forecast i have just seen after the 10 o clock news looked fine for us Monday

showed snow over us and no rain,and i will back the meto over the 18z gfs anyday

C.S

[SP1986]

The flow will most likely be northwesterly on Monday first off, so I imagine it will be rain/sleet for western areas of the region.

Can we file for a status as least snowiest region in Europe?

Even Athens had snow nearly a week ago.

[SP1986]

the forecast i have just seen after the 10 o clock news looked fine for us Monday

showed snow over us and no rain,and i will back the meto over the 18z gfs anyday

C.S

Only issue is they probably don't know either where the exact track will be.. I've seen the Met-office change (to my despair in the past) from one day to the next, I doubt we really will until Sunday night.

[Cheshire Freeze]

the forecast i have just seen after the 10 o clock news looked fine for us Monday

showed snow over us and no rain,and i will back the meto over the 18z gfs anyday

C.S

We get that flow from the warm Irish Sea and we're knackered. Seen it time and time again. The best we can hope for is that whole low complex gets pushed west in the next couple of runs! Nothing worse than being peed on with rain whilst 15-20 miles away they're making snowmen. It's happened SO many times!

[Cheshire Freeze]

If this doesn't happen for us I'll be properly gutted. I've stayed up for 6 nights in a row til 7am following the ups and downs of the output and invested a lot of my time this week following this.

[snowdrifter]

I am worn out with hoping! Just letting it be now! Put it this way, if I get snow ALL the NW will be happy!

[chiffer]

I think were gonna do just fine! Not basing this on any facts however I think well get lucky this time!

[feb1991blizzard]

We get that flow from the warm Irish Sea and we're knackered. Seen it time and time again. The best we can hope for is that whole low complex gets pushed west in the next couple of runs! Nothing worse than being peed on with rain whilst 15-20 miles away they're making snowmen. It's happened SO many times!

I know what your saying, 2009 feb was one of my worst experiences ever, there were other personal reasons but being in Salford and having 18 hours of very light on and off non-settling snizzle while a foot was dumped 8 miles east did not help.

Edited January 11, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

If this doesn't happen for us I'll be properly gutted. I've stayed up for 6 nights in a row til 7am following the ups and downs of the output and invested a lot of my time this week following this.

Dont give up though, teleconnections support height rises to North for rest of month, we can always go back to searching in deep FI.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Dont give up though, teleconnections support height rises to North for rest of month, we can always go back to searching in deep FI.

I'm not even bothered about the end of next week. If it's pulled further west in the morning I'll be one happy chappy, but right now I've got one of those dawning sinking feelings.

[SP1986]

Here in Wirral, we have rain when Runcorn has snow, so imagine how we feel..

Edited January 11, 2013 by SP1986

[damianslaw]

I understand some of the rather pessimistic posts in this thread this eve regarding potential snow prospects on Monday, but I think we all need to remember at this range everything is pure conjecture and as ever in snowy set ups everything will come down to nowcasting. What all NW members who are hoping for snow should do is start following the scottish thread later on Sunday, if there are reports of settling snow in western scotland then the chances of snowfall even in coastal parts of the NW will be preety high.. whereas yes if there are reports of sleety rain with snow only inland then it suggests warmer uppers will be having the upper hand

One thing that bodes well for the NW region (admittedly more so Cumbria which for many NW members may as well be another world..) is the precipitation when it hits should be preety heavy and evaporative cooling will quickly kick in any help to maintain conducive dewpoints.

We could end up with an event very similiar to 5 Feb last year, which saw snow reserved for more inland parts to the NE of the region - east lancashire, incidentally we managed 5 inches on that occasion.

[feb1991blizzard]

I'm not even bothered about the end of next week. If it's pulled further west in the morning I'll be one happy chappy, but right now I've got one of those dawning sinking feelings.

I know what your saying, the GFS kept correcting west but its looking like going the other way now, FAX still ok, NAE looks better but im not sure i trust that, the timing seems out of kilter with even the Mets own forecasts.

[Snow free zone]

Strange really. Meto seem to have increased the chance looking at the fax chart, but then GFS says no.

Still going for usual snowy east and sleety mix west. Hopefully we can get lucky - needs to change soon though.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I know what your saying, the GFS kept correcting west but its looking like going the other way now, FAX still ok, NAE looks better but im not sure i trust that, the timing seems out of kilter with even the Mets own forecasts.

I remember Feb last year and all the crowing from those in the east about how many inches they had. That was bad enough but this will be worse as I haven't had snow this winter yet, unlike last year.

[cheshire snow]

If this doesn't happen for us I'll be properly gutted. I've stayed up for 6 nights in a row til 7am following the ups and downs of the output and invested a lot of my time this week following this.

WoW stayed up for 6 nights,go and get some kip mate,then hopefully tomorrow we will see a shift back west

C.S

[Liam J]

NMM increases temps and dew points over western parts of the region during Sunday evening to between 3-5c with a flow developing off the Irish sea, this is only out to T48 which is the NMM limit. We do manage to stay in the 528 thickness, perhaps in later frames the warmer sector will be forced out a la FAX charts, thats how I see it. The shortwave looks like quickly becoming shallow before the main frontal activity moves through removing the flow from the west before backing more eastwards to draw on colder air.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Liam J

[johnwirral]

Where's Ian Brown, would be good to get his thoughts for Monday and early next week for the NW,

[feb1991blizzard]

Met office map says yes to even the West of our region though, run it through from sunday night to monday night, better detail if you zoom in though.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=map

[SP1986]

That shows sleet and snow turning to rain though.

[SnowObsessor90]

Assuming that those of us further are on wrong side of marginal what would we be more likely to get freezing rain like last year or just plain Rain? If it's not going to snow then I'd rather it not be former otherwise it could become quite hazardous round these parts.

[Liam J]

Rain all the way through here on that Meto link, wonderful, as always the Irish Sea scuppers it.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Liam J