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ajpoolshark

North West England Regional Discussion 11/01/13 ------->

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Okey Dokey, it's what you all been waiting for....yes, after ages of waiting around, hoping and praying that things would change this winter....Well, they are, reports of white flakey objects falling from the sky are imminent......So with that in mind, and after all that waffle, here's a new thread for you all...

Old one here ------------>

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White flakey objects have already fallen here overnight, to leave a light dusting.

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Bit of work to do today only had time to have a quick look. Monday now looking increasingly like a rain/sleety mix for those further west, both GFS and met office forecast suggesting rain for my location. Further East and higher up snow remains a distinct possibility from this system. Colder air needs to move back west - but the warmer air now seems to be closer increasing the marginality (now where have we heard this before)

Later on in the week who knows, a number of options remain on the table.

Been raining this morning which was a surprise.

edit : Monday a long way off but latest GFS run suggesting 6-8 hrs of snow for all away from the coast colder air further west on this run again - time yet for further adjustments either east or west but someone is going to get a good dumping on monday.

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Benn raining here to in leyland, quite mild after a foggy night.

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Just seen a television weather forecast for my area. Saturday: around 10 miles or so in from the coast snow showers will affect the region, falling as snow at lower levels, with very little if any accumulation, becoming clear by evening allowing for a hard ground frost in places, sunday will still see occasional snow showers at times, though these are likely to be far and few inbetween, feeling rather cold as temperatures away from the coast struggle to rise to a few degrees above freezing, though many places are likely to remain below freezing all day.

Seems like a narrow corridor of snow showers for a time tomorrow and sunday, and not every one will see them...need to be about 10 miles away from the coast, otherwise sleet and rain more likely.

Current TAF - Liverpool Airport

EGGP 110458Z 1106/1206 VRB03KT 3000 BR BKN002 TEMPO 1106/1112 6000 NSW SCT002 BKN005 BECMG 1112/1115 9999 NSW FEW005 BKN015 BECMG 1118/1121 14010KT 9999 SCT010

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Hope we have a good shot Monday, no one has been bigging up the northwest but then again they never do! Just a little tweak and we might get some fun out of this!

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Hope we have a good shot Monday, no one has been bigging up the northwest but then again they never do! Just a little tweak and we might get some fun out of this!

Wait until Sunday Night/Monday and into tuesday where we WILL see snow. If last nights GFS & ECM are to be believed, Friday could be a big one - but thats too far out to be accurate as the models are having a hard time at the moment.

It's on it's way.

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Meto updated there warnings for Monday so they must be quite certain, nice to see us in the firing line!

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Yes! NW England with their first snow warning from the Met Office for Monday. Get in! :D

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How much ramping to be had over the weekend backtrack? Lots I hope!

Ramping? I don't do any of that at all, nope. smiliz19.gif

Could be a good few cm's by mid-week. Also doubt the models are correct this morning for the mid-term, they're exploring options right now, cold likely to dominate completely this month.

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Looks like wirral's snow shield is fully operational for Monday on the met office warning, good luck to very one else.

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OMG I have just looked at the MO website and looked at the warning maps and yes - the snowshield is in place - am sooo disappointed!!!

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Looks like wirral's snow shield is fully operational for Monday on the met office warning, good luck to very one else.

As is always the case in these set ups the further east you are the better chance you have of seeing snow IF the cold air can get established properly and get far enough west then even the coastal strip should have a good shout. Problem is the models still seem to be shifting the cold air around west,east,up,down its anyones guess at the moment.

Expect more changes even at this short notice.

Can't believe what i'm listening to, Dhoni smacking the England bowlers all over the park 3 sixes in 5 balls faced doh.gif

Edit - OUT !!!

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Wouldn't sweat that Met Office warning for those of you at the coast. Temps will be sub-zero when the front arrives DP's will be sub-zero too.

Only problem looks like being the uppers for a time, but with the surface cold established with low dew & wet bulb temps, we should do just fine out of this. smile.png

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It does certainly seem that those in the east of the region will see the best chance of snow, I would say east manchester and east Lancashire especially.

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The shield is only about 10-15 miles away so we could still get some. I think we have done fairly well over the last few years considering where we are. Trouble is I downsized my car from having 4x4s for years and now have a Mini!!! This is going to be a lot of fun lol

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Wouldn't sweat that Met Office warning for those of you at the coast. Temps will be sub-zero when the front arrives DP's will be sub-zero too.

Only problem looks like being the uppers for a time, but with the surface cold established with low dew & wet bulb temps, we should do just fine out of this. smile.png

...ever the optimist..........hope your right....but as I'm ever the pessimist when it comes to snow ..Id expect the west coast strip to miss out......as ever here's hoping your right!

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I just like to see it falling. Although an accumulation might keep me away from work :) east lancs is impossible when it snows

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...ever the optimist..........hope your right....but as I'm ever the pessimist when it comes to snow ..Id expect the west coast strip to miss out......as ever here's hoping your right!

As is so often the case Preston will be on the borderline between the snow and sleety mix. M6 your guide as usual. West dodgy, east snowy. We'll just have to wait and see.

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Wouldn't sweat that Met Office warning for those of you at the coast. Temps will be sub-zero when the front arrives DP's will be sub-zero too.

Only problem looks like being the uppers for a time, but with the surface cold established with low dew & wet bulb temps, we should do just fine out of this. smile.png

I don't know, weren't we in a similar setup last year where it looked like we were decent shout only for a warm sector to get in way thus resulting in Freezing instead? or is a bit different this time?

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I don't know, weren't we in a similar setup last year where it looked like we were decent shout only for a warm sector to get in way thus resulting in Freezing instead? or is a bit different this time?

There is a slight warm sector due to some milder Atlantic air in the mix (albeit short lived) although with uppers consistently around -4/-5 we should do OK in this situation as the wind will not have a westerly component to it.

Just hope there is no short term warm sector below 850hpa to contend with during the event (this is what caused the freezing rain event last year).

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Just hope there is no short term warm sector below 850hpa to contend with during the event (this is what caused the freezing rain event last year).

This exactly the type of thing I was referring to, it would just sod law if the same thing were to happen twice in a row lol

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This exactly the type of thing I was referring to, it would just sod law if the same thing were to happen twice in a row lol

Conditions are different this time though, without that westerly component, we shouldn't see a repeat of last time. :)

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