Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards

[rory o gorman]

yes indeed great plume, its a common thread post 160 hrs but the way the models are preforming i have no major trust in it verifying,

[winterof79]

Looks like we may get the classic 70/80s style winter blast as some of us have alluded to this winter

http://www.meteociel.fr/...&map=1&archive=0 with heavy snow for some then a freeze under calmer conditions http://www.meteociel.fr/...&map=1&archive=0 Things will change i suppose but cold is coming no matter.

Let the cold become entrenched then the fun and games can begin .....trust me

[Dexter29]

The good news is that these runs which show the high toppling are post 168... It's also an utterly different trend than last night's ECM!

I would say now that the majority of the country has at least 6/7 days of cold weather which could easily be extended ATM...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

But just look at the differences at that range from the big 3... Importantly, although all those charts are different, they are cold for much of the country!

Absolutely, certain members are just fixated with trying to find a mild break down on each run for each model.

The latest ECM/GFS/UKM keeps the cold and potential snow within 168hr - that's all that matters here, details will inevitably change!

Crying/ramping at a mild breakdown post 168hrs is absurd

Edited January 11, 2013 by Dexter29

[rory o gorman]

sorry again guys im irish was watching this a bit differently lol . there is great snow synoptics short term in the uk for sure .

[Great Plum]

If the ECM was to follow its path as taken by the 0z, then we end up:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

Heights building northwards / retrogression? I also don't think it would be warm under the high pressure anyway... This is all massive FI though!

[mountain shadow]

Well the ECM at the close does Show a very mild set up and just shows why we should not expect a very prolonged cold spell.

As deep FI shows that despite a very fragmented PV, a section of it ends up over Greenland and drives a zonal Jet.

[Jezzer]

Absolutely, certain members are just fixated with trying to find a mild break down on each run for each model.

The latest ECM/GFS/UKM keeps the cold and potential snow within 168hr - that's all that matters here, details will inevitably change!

Crying/ramping at a mild breakdown post 168hrs is absurd

Couldn't agree more. When we finally seem to have secured cold into early next week, something the majority have been seeking all winter, it does seem odd to start looking for a mild breakdown.

GP did suggest a mild interlude before potentially colder weather shows its face once again

[Wilxy]

Surely the effects of SSW are to blame for such model spikes at closer range than normal?

[Snowmad79]

We are not getting that ridge of HP building into Greenland within 0-144hr output. Believe it or not, with out that we were never going to see a prolonged cold spell imo, so no, will have to disagree with those suggesting that "people are worrying about mild in deep FI", because it's what happens in 0-120 that determines where we go in the long run.

I don't whether I've been following output properly but all I've seen the last couple of days is HP over Greenland and to our north generally speaking, being downgraded as output comes into the reliable. That said, there is still also time for change for the better.

[IDO]

Its little steps with the models at the moment. Without any of the models sustaining heights to our north, any cold will be transitional. The main thing is the short wave off Iceland has dived SE. This gives the UK a cold shot after the short lived easterly of the weekend. Until the angle and westward track of that Low early next week is finalised we are likely to see several possibilities. At the moment its GFS giving a better latter stages. However as they are late to the party and ECM have had this scenario longer I suspect they will be closer to the mark.

The pressure charts for GFS show that even the GFS op run is probably not going to happen:

5-7 days of wintry weather and then who knows.

[Jason M]

Just run through ensembles at the 144 hour mark and they are superb. Wide scatter of solutions but oh boy there are some good uns.

I think I'd bank about 15 of them now!

Jason

[TEITS]

Overall another pleasing set of model runs. The trend of remaining cold next week with further snowfall possibilities remains today although the ECM does hint at a change to milder weather later on. However lets be realistic here can we really gripe about a 1 week cold spell that could bring more snowfall, besides GP did hint at a brief less cold spell before a reload from the NE.

Looking at the 0Zs there are two things that strike me. The first is how far E or W will the LP be when it tracks SSE. This has implications with regards to the snowline and how far W this will be. Currently the E looks more favoured as it always will be in this situation. What happens after this LP sinks S is very confusing because I have seen operationals/ensembles hinting at a good old fashioned E,ly with convective snowfall i.e 0Z ECM or do we see undercutting LP systems i.e 12Z ECM.

Based on what I have seen so far it appears if this LP sinking SSE is further W then the chances of a convective type E,ly developing is greater because this allows HP to back further W. What happens beyond though is uncertain because last night when I viewed the ensembles some did show a similar type pattern to the ECM but some ensembles had Atlantic LPs going underneath this block and others over the top. Looking at the UKMO and its tricky working out beyond +144 but I believe a continuation of the cold would continue with heights increasing to our NE with LP going the undercutting route.

[nick sussex]

What a surprise no agreement today after 96hrs!

The output remains in a mess past this stage with three differing views of the way forward. The UKMO looks rather strange at 120 and 144hrs although it would more likely go on to develop a better pattern than both the ECM and GFS.

The ECM looks good early but then somehow pulls out a frightening looking PV later, the GFS sort of continues with the a similar trend to recent ECM runs although has zero margin for error.

As I said yesterday I'm finding the output in terms of continuity the worst ever and clueless at times so I really wouldn't bother looking past 96hrs for any clear answers!

[Bolton67]

Good to see 2 big guns Jason and TETIS pleased with the ECM 0z. Even IF the High does topple at T168 it would lead to some very cold temps.

[nick sussex]

Good to see 2 big guns Jason and TETIS pleased with the ECM 0z. Even IF the High does topple at T168 it would lead to some very cold temps.

The ECM at least guarantees snow for everyone, and then you just hope that its completely wrong later! Given the amount of changes we've seen I'd be inclined to take a chance on the ECM because at least its higher margin for error initially, also the UKMO although messy is good.

Given a choice I wouldn't go with the GFS, far too nerve shredding and low margin for error.

Edited January 11, 2013 by nick sussex

[TEITS]

As I said yesterday I'm finding the output in terms of continuity the worst ever and clueless at times so I really wouldn't bother looking past 96hrs for any clear answers!

Morning Nick.

Without doubt this has and remains one of the most intriguing spells of model watching I have known for many years. My post above was really a long winded way of saying I haven't a clue. At the moment I feel members would be better just concentrating on Monday for the moment because this has the best snow potential in the short term.

I forgot to add in my post that any snowfall on Saturday is now looking unlikely in my opinion as the main belt of precip looks to remain to the S. This isn't surprising and many of us expecting this. The best snowfall potential this weekend is between midnight Saturday into Sunday morning when snow showers will develop into NE England, Lincs, Humber and maybe the far N of Norfolk.

[Timmytour]

144 not looking too shoddy either. Minus 8 uppers just about cover the whole country now in an easterly flow!

A huge elegant Atlantic Swan flying north west looking towards us on the ECM. Almost picture perfect at that stage although could do with being a bit smaller!

Edited January 11, 2013 by Timmytour

[Weather-history]

For those who hang on to what 240hr outputs are saying.

Here is what New Year's Day 0z runs were predicting for today .

ECM 0z New Year's Day

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=1&mois=1&annee=2013&heure=0&archive=1&mode=1&ech=240&map=0

GFS 0z New Year's Day

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&heure=0&jour=11&mois=1&annee=2013&archive=1

GEM 0z New Year's Day

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0&archive=1&mois=1&heure=0&jour=1&annee=2013

And in reality

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=17&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0

Edited January 11, 2013 by Weather-history

[lord stratus]

Monday snow event is Marginal in the west! Could go either way. LONDON though wow you'l like Carol forecast this morning

As you say, marginal. Remember, weather systems coming from the north west doesn't guarantee snow unless the cold is well and truly entrenched. Personally I would prefer an approach from the southwest, but that could come later in the week.

[Southender]

For those who hang on to what 240hr outputs are saying.

Here is what New Year's Day 0z runs were predicting for today .

ECM 0z New Year's Day

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=1&mois=1&annee=2013&heure=0&archive=1&mode=1&ech=240&map=0

GFS 0z New Year's Day

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&heure=0&jour=11&mois=1&annee=2013&archive=1

GEM 0z New Year's Day

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0&archive=1&mois=1&heure=0&jour=1&annee=2013

And in reality

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=17&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0

You have to say the GEM was the closest to the mark there. But they are all way off. Good point well made.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Shrimper

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

People still looking for a breakdown in a week's time and I don't understand it. Lets just enjoy what we have coming as I reckon quite a few we will see some snow over the next 7 days.

As Nick S says we can pretty much disregard most of the output post T96 and given that the full effects of the SSW are still to be determined I very much doubt the pattern over a week out will look the same by the time we get there.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the length of this cold spell getting upgraded as the week goes on. We shall see...

[nick sussex]

Morning Nick.

Without doubt this has and remains one of the most intriguing spells of model watching I have known for many years. My post above was really a long winded way of saying I haven't a clue. At the moment I feel members would be better just concentrating on Monday for the moment because this has the best snow potential in the short term.

I forgot to add in my post that any snowfall on Saturday is now looking unlikely in my opinion as the main belt of precip looks to remain to the S. This isn't surprising and many of us expecting this. The best snowfall potential this weekend is between midnight Saturday into Sunday morning when snow showers will develop into NE England, Lincs, Humber and maybe the far N of Norfolk.

Morning Dave yes I think Monday looks interesting and the ECM looks very good for some snow and then snow showers.

But its really difficult to have a great deal of confidence in any of the outputs, I agree its been intriguing to watch the models making a dogs dinner of the pattern, I don't mind uncertainty as long as after all that the end result is cold and snow!

[weather eater]

Several pages since last night that didn’t take long to read, only about four posts worth a look I might just start jumping forward four or five pages every morning and that will speed things up even further.

So a bit of plink plink fizz this morning after last night party, only to be expected really I think the drinks may have been spiked with some kind of hallucinogenic. Nick and Dave have it spot on this morning, it’s not worth bothering with post 96hrs output as the models continue to peer through the mists of uncertainty, we really are seeing the wild output swings that Ian Fergusson was alluding to a couple of days ago, the good news is the early part of next week is slowly starting to firm up and continues cold, and we have had a tiny amount of snow this morning a few flakes coming down as I got up, nice.

Edited January 11, 2013 by weather eater

[Dexter29]

For those who hang on to what 240hr outputs are saying.

Here is what New Year's Day 0z runs were predicting for today .

ECM 0z New Year's Day

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=1&mois=1&annee=2013&heure=0&archive=1&mode=1&ech=240&map=0

GFS 0z New Year's Day

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&heure=0&jour=11&mois=1&annee=2013&archive=1

GEM 0z New Year's Day

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0&archive=1&mois=1&heure=0&jour=1&annee=2013

And in reality

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=17&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0

If there was ever proof to confirm FI rubbish - it's this. Excellent.

Like I said earlier, looking at post 168hr for a breakdown is insane.

It's a shame members just can't enjoy the fact that we now have a 80% chance of cold and snow in the models over the next 3/4days

After all, that's why most of us are sitting here on this forum day in day out due to our interest in the cold and snow.

Obviously it's the MOD thread but bias toward mild makes if difficult for me learning.

Remember: snowfall most of the time is the suprise variety.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Dexter29

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

So where's Saturdays event gone??