Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Angelici Magiovinium

South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - January 11th 2013>

Recommended Posts

Welcome to your new thread everyone:

These regional threads are geared for a more general 'chatty' discussion to give all members a chance to post and talk about your local conditions, your thoughts on how things are panning out and also to enjoy reading informative posts, we are lucky to have members with extensive knowledge in meteorology who are only to happy to share their thoughts with the rest of us.

The forum is extremely busy at the moment so in the interests of keeping the regional threads running smoothly please before you post just think about whether you'd be interested in what you're saying were someone else to post it. Pointless one liners and posts just asking if/when/where it will snow may well be deleted to ensure ease of use to all members during this busy period.

Also during this busy time the member’s locations have been temporarily switched off so if you haven’t already done so please add your location to your signature as it’s nice to know where everyone is located especially when you are reporting snow (for anyone not sure how to do this go to Edit Profile, Signature, Edit and Save)

I sincerely hope most of you will be very happy within the next few days; some may not but in any event please try to keep the thread topical, cheerful and positive for all our sanities (I know… it’s too late for gottolovethisweather crazy.gif )

Thank yougood.gif

Link to the previous one here…….

http://forum.netweat...3/page__st__640

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Briefly so far;

GFS; Poor short term with a mild sector on Monday/Tues/Weds turning PPN to rain rather than snow. Good long term with a renewed surge of colder air giving possible snow next weekend and into the following week.

UKMO; Good short term giving a better snow event for parts of the West Country on Monday/Tuesday. T144 looks Ok to me with a possible build of heights but can't be sure due to this being the final frame of the model.

GEM; Good Monday/Tuesday with snow potential away from the far west for parts of the West Country. Poor long term with the Atlantic making inroads once again.

Remember detail is irrelevant at this stage. The snow-line will shift south/north/west/east right up to T0. The models so far keep the theme of "potential snow events" next week and at this stage that's what I'm looking for. Shift the GFS pattern 100 miles west and parts of our region will be in with a shout again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking like a cold day on Sunday;

post-12721-0-78425000-1357881426_thumb.jpost-12721-0-09261600-1357881451_thumb.j

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking like a cold day on Sunday;

post-12721-0-78425000-1357881426_thumb.jpost-12721-0-09261600-1357881451_thumb.j

Maybe a snow igloo comp... this week...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good morning fellow southeners, 2.7 oC here in Bradford on Avon and dropping at the moment.

Mod thread as usual,full of bloody useless bickering.

Fingers crossed for the white stuff this wknd, b&q have a garden st which includes snow shovel, stiff brush, churn brush and garden size dust pan and a plastic gardn rake, all for a fiver!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Noticeably cooler this morning at 2.7°C, and a clear sky for the first time in days.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM better for snowfall on Monday. This is going to be a long rollercoaster peeps! Borderline on Tuesday.

post-12721-0-97713700-1357885024_thumb.j

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Things still looking ok at the moment ,thats good at this stage ,ecm out soon just need to see a fair run .it will get even more nail biting today as we near the weekend .but good wintry potential certainly i think a time for radar watching and keeping an eye on FAX Charts .iv learnt over many years that most good falls of snow are quite often picked up at short notice .just remember we have all the ingredients around but they need to come together . drinks.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Heavy snow possible on Wednesday on the ECM;

post-12721-0-11042000-1357885373_thumb.jpost-12721-0-82887800-1357885381_thumb.j

That's as far as I am looking now, good run this!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Heavy snow possible on Wednesday on the ECM;

post-12721-0-11042000-1357885373_thumb.jpost-12721-0-82887800-1357885381_thumb.j

That's as far as I am looking now, good run this!

..

Hmm interesting... Mind you it's bound to be as that is when I am travelling to Brighton... 2010 six hour journey ... First day of the really heavy stuff.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i think a time for radar watching and keeping an eye on FAX Charts .iv learnt over many years that most good falls of snow are quite often picked up at short notice .just remember we have all the ingredients around but they need to come together . drinks.gif

Yes, a slight pain to see Carol's graphics further East than Ian's were yesterday. But as the rain for Saturday has been moved I'm not going to over worry about rain/snow on Monday, I would have thought that these movements will alter over the next 3 days anyway. More pleased to see cold arriving and staying - that's the first ingredient needed for snow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good morning all.

Ready for the now casting over the next few days. Just hoping something other than rain comes to fruition.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh and BbC south has it down as wet and windy with low temps on Saturday some sleet maybe tonight. And clear but cold on Sunday... Meaning some iced conditions sat night. ..... Really..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ECM is a very good run throughout next week for us, however I would be wary for the time being as it is a totally different sypnotic evolution to its previous output. To summarise;

- Possible light wintriness on Saturday evening after initial rainfall turns wintry before sinking south/south east

- Possible Ice Day for some on Sunday, but predominantly dry for most.

- All models show a band of PPN moving in from the west/north west later on Monday.The GFS shows a snow to rain event as a mild sector gets involved and dampens the air temperature at 1500m. The ECM & GEM would keep it as a predominantly snow only event for northern and eastern areas of our region, albeit marginal, the western areas would see a snow - rain event. The UKMO would be an all snow event away from the far west and coastal areas.

- The GFS then shows a less cold day or two with rain for most midweek before another surge of colder air starts making inroads at the end of next week giving us further snow events next weekend. The GEM would give us a battleground scenario midweek before the Atlantic wins out and brings in less cold air. The ECM would bring potentially disruptive snowfall to the south west before things settle down as pressure builds, but remaining cold.

Don't get too hung up by the mood in the MOD thread, its rather IMBY as expected in there currently. There have been different variations in the models again today, with an increased chance of milder "sectors" bringing small blips of less cold weather to the south west at times.

However, detail aside (which at this stage is irrelevant), the trend is the same. Colder weather taking hold, with marginal, "battleground setups" possible on pretty much anyday next week. Taking the whole output at face value, most of us would have seen falling snow within the next few days.

Remember, don't be too disheartened by detail just yet. Won't be around much today, but I'll be keeping an eye on developments still.

Best period of Wintery weather this season is fast approaching. Ready for the ups & downs of what is a "West Country Cold Spell"?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you were to take these forecasts literally and of course, you shouldn't but..............................

I am potentially, in for a lot of snow and some rather cold days right through to Sunday 20th January.

I can assure you that this is a IMBY type post but again, it may well apply to your neighbourhood nearer the time.

I truly believe we are entering a period of something rather special.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=10day;sess=

Go see what your local forecast shows and share with us. good.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning all, Carol's forecast is a little uninspiring but this is what we can expect over the weekend from some at the Meto and unfortunately they always seem to downgrade nearer the time or that's how it seems!Anyway nowcast tomorrow and hope there is enough ppn to give some the white stuff, good luck!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes there does appear to be a slight shift of the pattern east, especially in the short term making any snow events marginal on some of the models for the western side of the uk, certainly the national weather for Monday I just watched on news24 is all rain for most of the western side of the uk, loads of snow in the east as usual but that forecast will chop and change between now and Sunday no doubt so all to play for.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

morning all....and how is everyone today?.....model outputs look peachy for snow, especially for the north and east of the region

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Slightly disappointing this morning after yday eve's model predictions.

The Monday snow event looks marginal for the West of our region, and thru' the week again looks marginal. Shame as next Thurs/Fri looked like a big chance of a really decent snowfall. Should make my trip to dartmouth easier though if indeed the snow holds off!

It seemed last night we were getting much closer to across-model agreement on the following 6 to 7 days.

Let's hope there's a turnaround today.

Yes, this is a pessimistic view from a period that COULD still bring decent snow for at least some of us, but that's how i see it this morning.

Hopefully for the shorter term ECM will be correct.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

morning all....and how is everyone today?.....model outputs look peachy for snow, especially for the north and east of the region

I think apart from the far SW, there are possibilities for several days:

48_20.gif

90_20.gif

144_20.gif

and then a week away maybe?

150_20.gif

uksnownext3to6days.cc23.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning all! :D

I don't want egg on my face, it had better snow Saturday night/Sunday morning and Monday/Tuesday as I have been ramping to high heaven :D

My forecast currently shows nada on the snow front, a small % chance on Thursday by all accounts and lots of rain.

See you all later, I am planning on cuddling up with a bottle of red and netweather for the night. My rock 'n roll lifestyle will burn me out one day! ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning all!

I think it's just a case of nowcasting. Like legritter mentioned, the ingredients are about - its just a case of them all coming together!!!

Anyone else sick of certain people on the model discussion thread? They are there just with the sole purpose of causing havoc. It does my head in......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think apart from the far SW, there are possibilities for several days:

48_20.gif

90_20.gif

144_20.gif

and then a week away maybe?

150_20.gif

uksnownext3to6days.cc23.jpg

I wouldn't kick those charts out of bed for farting! air_kiss.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

very disappointing from a imby perspective (exeter), although looks real good for most of us down this end of the country & would be nice to see us have a snowfall that will eclipse anywhere else!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning all! biggrin.png

I don't want egg on my face, it had better snow Saturday night/Sunday morning and Monday/Tuesday as I have been ramping to high heaven biggrin.png

You'll learn!!! rofl.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×