South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 11th 2013>

[Dexter29]

Dexter stop hanging on every run like its nailed...... they are not! There is so much flux and volatility in the model suite right now, the Meto's latest stock phrase is Shannon entropy at record levels according to Ian F.

So mass confusion and odd evolutions are to be expected, as are downgrades and upgrades.

I do not hang on each run! I keep an open mind and look for trends.

If I want to express my downgrade feelings I will.

Just because I'm not jumping up and down ramping about a possible 2cm of snow does not mean I'm hanging on each run and taking it gospel.

I am the first to comment about how 'all over the place' the models are, just look at my previous posts!

But I'm not naive enough to realise if we collate the past two days models we have an overall downgrade of cold and snow, let's hope it all upgrades again. Fingers crossed!

I want snow as much as anyone so I'm just treading carefully for now as Dec 2012 I got burnt big time. Although this time it looks a lot better.

[Dexter29]

If you want to make yourself grin a bit, run the animation here from Tuesday onwards

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

Wowsa..... Would love this to happen :-)

[Suburban Streamer]

nae 6z showing a little bit of snow tomorrow - note how the 0z was showing none so fingers crossed the 12z will continue upgrading....

nmm 0z has a band of precip coming in before the main band and shows some snow coming into our region as early as tomorrow morning, 8am:

this then fizzles out and by 9pm the main band has pushed into southern areas (but not as north as the morning band and missing me aaargh lol)

This slowly retreats back into ne france in the early hours of sunday

As for an lying snow?

Nmm says:

Nae says no lying snow

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I think we will see some upgrades tonight and during the weekend for Monday night and Tuesday and Tuesday night into Wednesday..

[Biensie]

I am confused.... the confiedence on this forum (which I have enjoyed) and the Net Weather forecast shows Gillingham Kent where I am, to be getting snow with 90% confidence from Sunday onwards infact most of next week. However BBC Weather and Met Weather are showing nothing for my location? Who should I go with?

[snow raven]

I work in the NHS, and we have just been emailed a Clinical Alert level 2 severe weather warning - a 60% chance of moderate sleet and snow showers in place until Monday...

[Southender]

I think tomorrow still has a small chance of delivering a surprise for some.

Precip arriving around 9am into the SE - http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2013011106/27-574.GIF?11-6

850's around -4 - http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2013011106/27-7.GIF?11-6

Dew's around or just below freezing - http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2013011106/27-101.GIF?11-6

Isotherm not quite playing ball - http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2013011106/27-526.GIF?11-6

In summary. It is very much borderline of course and likely to be a rain to snow type situation. Later in the day looks more favourable as the colder air tucks in behind, giving at least a little back edge white stuff perhaps. Just north of the M4 looks favoured as of course are the hills. But if the colder air digs in just a touch quicker and the PPN doesn't track any further South, then a few lucky souls could get a nice surprise as shown here on the accum ppn chart - http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2013011106/42-777.GIF?11-6

We will see. But cannot be ruled out just yet. Although of course very much an outside chance at present and the NAE (which should be more accurate than the GFS) gives very little chance, with the exception of higher elevations.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu tomorrows low now showing on Sat...Woosh looks pretty...Compare it to the charts..

Both spot on

[Suburban Streamer]

as for monday, heres the snow charts from the ecm (i have used these for over a year now and do find them to be quite accurate, certainly more so than the gfs snow charts but of course i ditch all these wen in range of nae/nmm)

[Coast]

Who should I go with?

NW every time, you know it makes sense!!!!

[Suburban Streamer]

I am confused.... the confiedence on this forum (which I have enjoyed) and the Net Weather forecast shows Gillingham Kent where I am, to be getting snow with 90% confidence from Sunday onwards infact most of next week. However BBC Weather and Met Weather are showing nothing for my location? Who should I go with?

neither! the net weather forecast is based on the gfs and changes on each run. BBC are often slow to update in fast changing situations. BBC tv forecasts are a decent guidence but take their graphics with a pinch of salt. BBC website i find pretty useless tbh!

NAE/NMM and nowcasting defo the best way forward. netweather all the way - just not the automated forecasts...imo

Edited January 11, 2013 by Suburban Streamer

[Dexter29]

I think we will see some upgrades tonight and during the weekend for Monday night and Tuesday and Tuesday night into Wednesday..

I hope so.

I was thinking about tomorrow's potential snow, from past experience when lows are forecast to move in from West -northwest or from the SW and bump into cold air the ppn that was modeled always goes further north than predicted.

18th Dec 2010 was a prime example. NAE and beeb forecasts went for the precip only reaching southern Home Counties as a northern extent. It got to Birmingham!?!

Edited January 11, 2013 by Dexter29

[Coast]

So what are we to make of the models currently?

Forget 'em!!! :lol:

[abruzzi spur]

Come on snow please. Squash league match tomorrow afternoon against best player in my league. Now I know I should face the challenge and try my best etc, but if it snows and the game is off then 4 points each!

AS

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Wednesday looks bloody tasty if it was goona come off..

[Paul Sherman]

I hope so.

I was thinking about tomorrow's potential snow, from past experience when lows are forecast to move in from West -northwest or from the SW and bump into cold air the ppn that was modeled always goes further north than predicted.

18th Dec 2010 was a prime example. NAE and beeb forecasts went for the precip only reaching southern Home Counties as a northern extent. It got to Birmingham!?!

Just watch the radar tomorrow - Simples! Cant do anyhting else, there could be a 50 mile shift either way!

[kold weather]

Some massive differences on the ensembles and the models in general about how the set-up on Monday evolves (and to be fair, even tomorrow isn't 100% sorted) some models give nothing, some give moderate rainfall, others give a couple of cms, one or two give a lot more than that...

It wouldn't surprise me to see Monday's set-up get somewhat upgraded over the next few days...

[Lampostwatcher]

11.57

N24

Phil avery Friday night / Saturday morning now has a band off PPN coming up from sw reaching south of London turning to snow on leading edge , behind is the initial low reinforcing the first band ,

Sunday had snow showers coming in from the north east reaching east Anglia not the south east or London , Monday weather front starting in nw Scotland running down the whole country turning to snow as it does

[janetmh71]

In this area we are in a maybe or maybe not situation. Changes hourly with risk of snow going from 85% to 0%

Guess we will just have to see what happens

[fatyido]

Blimey, its all doom and gloom again today in the Model Discussion forum.

I wish people would learn not to get too excited too soon.

There is only one tried and tested method for looking for snow and for many years I have been using this method.

And that my friend is.....your trusty old LAMP-POST. !!

[msx999]

Can someone explain thw difference between leading edge and back edge snow.... I take it leading edge is the samw as frontal.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Coast

[Suburban Streamer]

Can someone explain thw difference between leading edge and back edge snow.... I take it leading edge is the samw as frontal.

hi

Both can be from frontal precip.

Leading edge is where the precip bumps into cold air already in place. Back edge is where cold air digs in behind the front

[PurpleButterfly]

Hi all

It's all quite exciting at the prospects of snow! I just wanted to ask what sort of snow events to expect in the luton area? I have been looking at the charts and model forecast thread but it all hurts my head!! 😳

I know there can be and will be big changes that will determine what occurs in the coming days.

[Snowangel-MK]

Yellow Warning of Ice for London & South East England :

Bracknell Forest, Brighton and Hove, Buckinghamshire, East Sussex, Greater London, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Kent, Medway, Oxfordshire, Portsmouth, Reading, Slough, Southampton, Surrey, West Berkshire, West Sussex, Windsor and Maidenhead & Wokingham

Yellow Warning of Ice for East of England :

Central Bedfordshire, Essex, Hertfordshire, Southend-on-Sea & Thurrock

Valid from: 1500 on Sat 12 Jan 2013

Valid to: 1200 on Sun 13 Jan 2013

Outbreaks of rain, sleet and some snow will gradually clear southwards during Saturday night, and with temperatures falling rapidly through the evening and night, there is a risk of icy surfaces. The rain, sleet and snow may linger in parts of southern England well into Sunday morning, by which time it will be light and mainly falling as snow. While local accumulations of up to 2 cm of snow are possible on some higher level roads, it is the risk of ice which is expected to present the main problem.

Issued at: 1210 on Fri 11 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=uk&from=rss&sn=94706689-2B5A-31A1-2D90-24494853EF81_3_EE&tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-4.50&lat=55.74&fcTime=1357819260

[Dexter29]

Hi all

It's all quite exciting at the prospects of snow! I just wanted to ask what sort of snow events to expect in the luton area? I have been looking at the charts and model forecast thread but it all hurts my head!! 😳

I know there can be and will be big changes that will determine what occurs in the coming days.

Very much now casting tbh. Radar watching.

Luton I feel is too far north tomorrow so will remain dry.

Sunday your probably to far inland to benefit from any snow showers unless a trough sets up.

Monday looks mainly dry.

Monday eve/Tuesday is looking best for you.

But that is 3 days away so beware!