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Angelici Magiovinium

South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 11th 2013>

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Welcome to the new thread everyone:

These regional threads are geared for a more general 'chatty' discussion to give all members a chance to post and talk about your local conditions, your thoughts on how things are panning out and also to enjoy reading informative posts, we are lucky to have members with extensive knowledge in meteorology who are only to happy to share their thoughts with the rest of us.

The forum is extremely busy at the moment so in the interests of keeping the regional threads running smoothly please before you post just think about whether you'd be interested in what you're saying were someone else to post it. Pointless one liners and posts just asking if/when/where it will snow may well be deleted to ensure ease of use to all members during this period.

Also during this busy time the member’s locations have been temporarily switched off so if you haven’t already done so please add your location to your signature as it’s nice to know where everyone is located especially when you are reporting snow (for anyone not sure how to do this go to Edit Profile, Signature, Edit and Save)

I suspect most of us will be very happy within the next few days, some may not but in any event let’s try to keep the thread topical, cheerful and positive for all our sanities.

Thank you, MKsnowangel angel.gif

Link to the previous one here…….

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Woo new thread!

Is anyone elses sleeping pattern screwed? I'm off work at the minute, the only sleep I've really been getting is naps between the model outputs help.gif

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Woo new thread!

Is anyone elses sleeping pattern screwed? I'm off work at the minute, the only sleep I've really been getting is naps between the model outputs help.gif

I'm on nights this week and counting down till 3:30am for 00Z GFS, I don't know if I really wanna look or not rofl.gif ...another nap for you then untill half 3 lol

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It's nice to see your getting the ball rolling on here already.....

post-10773-0-33304200-1357868960_thumb.j

...I'm going back to bed..... with any luck I might actually sleep this time lazy.gif

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Woo new thread!

Is anyone elses sleeping pattern screwed? I'm off work at the minute, the only sleep I've really been getting is naps between the model outputs help.gif

Hi Dan I am on nights but I finish in the morning so I can see me getting no sleep this weekend as it always seems that any snow is due in late at night.Talking of due when is the next bit of useful info due in?

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I'm on nights this week and counting down till 3:30am for 00Z GFS, I don't know if I really wanna look or not rofl.gif ...another nap for you then untill half 3 lol

I'm on night shifts at the Beeb until Monday morning, hopefully perfectly time to get the sledge out next week! cold.gif

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Hi Dan I am on nights but I finish in the morning so I can see me getting no sleep this weekend as it always seems that any snow is due in late at night.Talking of due when is the next bit of useful info due in?

I'm on nights this week and counting down till 3:30am for 00Z GFS, I don't know if I really wanna look or not rofl.gif ...another nap for you then untill half 3 lol

I just finished a run of night shifts yesterday! Wasn't sleeping a whole lot when I was on those either, anyone outside of the weather community must think we're bonkers!

Glad I wont be the only one up for the 00z, hopefully it doesn't all go wrong

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goodnight all

to save your sanity watch the 12z ecm and gfs run

the main runs now are ukmo and fax charts

if you watch every run

you will end up with modelmetociss rofl.gif

or in english insomnia lazy.gif

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Woo new thread!

Is anyone elses sleeping pattern screwed? I'm off work at the minute, the only sleep I've really been getting is naps between the model outputs help.gif

Yep. I can relate to that. Got a 100 mile drive down to the South Coast tomorrow so I really should be getting some sleep now

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goodnight all

to save your sanity watch the 12z ecm and gfs run

the main runs now are ukmo and fax charts

if you watch every run

you will end up with modelmetociss rofl.gif

or in english insomnia lazy.gif

Thanks for your input today (every day) and I think a group of us are obsessed with NW ,so will be awake for a few nights more.When is the gfs run out?

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The latest NMM model doesn't even get the Precip into North Kent.. the good news is that there's a fairly decent signal for snow across the South of our region

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The latest NMM model doesn't even get the Precip into North Kent.. the good news is that there's a fairly decent signal for snow across the South of our region

Im not a big fan of GFS precip type, much prefer NAE but the latest 18Z shows rain turning to snow in our region Saturday....

Saturday 18:00

Sunday 0:00

And Monday, there is alot of convection in the north sea..

Monday 0:00

Monday 6:00

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Im not a big fan of GFS precip type, much prefer NAE but the latest 18Z shows rain turning to snow in our region Saturday....

Saturday 18:00

Sunday 0:00

And Monday, there is alot of convection in the north sea..

Monday 0:00

Monday 6:00

GFS Precip definitely has it much further North, and would actually be more favourable. This is the Northern extent on the NMM, unless its going to move further North beyond this period

post-7073-0-88001800-1357870612_thumb.pn

NMM keen to bring a fair amount of snow showers inland for areas further North!

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Morning All.

Have not posted on the region thread since the december let down. So a late happy new year wishes from me to all of you.

Big set of over night runs coming up but as mentioned on the mod output thread earlier i expected a very decent pub run prior as in previous GFS runs showing correction and ever slowly falling back into line with the ECM & UKMO.

I really do feel that we are on the brink of glory. What strikes me about this possible pattern is not just the impressive cold but the increased risk of some possible serious snow events. Rule of thumb first get the cold air in place and look for short term snow events after.

Anyway if anyone needs any guidence drop me a pm and i will try my best to answer.

All the best

L-S

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Morning All.

Have not posted on the region thread since the december let down. So a late happy new year wishes from me to all of you.

Big set of over night runs coming up but as mentioned on the mod output thread earlier i expected a very decent pub run prior as in previous GFS runs showing correction and ever slowly falling back into line with the ECM & UKMO.

I really do feel that we are on the brink of glory. What strikes me about this possible pattern is not just the impressive cold but the increased risk of some possible serious snow events. Rule of thumb first get the cold air in place and look for short term snow events after.

Anyway if anyone needs any guidence drop me a pm and i will try my best to answer.

All the best

L-S

Hi LS How many hours before the December event did things go wrong?I was watching but cannot remember.I know the set up this time is quite different but when can we safely say things are on this time.

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Hi LS How many hours before the December event did things go wrong?I was watching but cannot remember.I know the set up this time is quite different but when can we safely say things are on this time.

I'm pretty sure it was a couple of days before hand, but there were hints of it going wrong and I don't believe there was ever 100% full model support

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I'm pretty sure it was a couple of days before hand, but there were hints of it going wrong and I don't believe there was ever 100% full model support

Yep, this situation feels different to me, now the GFS seems to be jumping back on board there appears to be slightly more confidence that the weather is set for a potentially memorable cold spell. Of course things still to firm up as we get nearer to the realistic time frame but I'm feeling relatively confident.

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I'm pretty sure it was a couple of days before hand, but there were hints of it going wrong and I don't believe there was ever 100% full model support

A bit like now...only joking ..don't what that huge let down again.

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A bit like now...only joking ..don't what that huge let down again.

I'm sure there would be carnage on the Model thread if there was another let down. December was bad enough! :)

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Hi LS How many hours before the December event did things go wrong?I was watching but cannot remember.I know the set up this time is quite different but when can we safely say things are on this time.

Morning BP hope your well.

One word that summed up december for me was ' Unlucky ' we had favourable background indciators with a good deal of blocking. I am a beleiver however in that even though you have the best of indicators it does not mean cold weather is a given.I do remember december dragging on and on with divergence in the models but once it dropped the easterly it stayed dropped.

As for this time around we can see that models do agree a pattern of easterly winds starting from this weekend so we know that we will get cold the big debate is how cold and potentially wintry at the moment things are looking good for a possible prolonged spell of cold wintry weather but model agreement is required so i would say we should know by the weekend if we are going to see a short lived cold spell or a prolonged cold spell. Either things are set to turn a lot colder with some potentially seeing snow at the weekend.

Hope that helps

L-S

P.S ~ Sorry for the poor layout on blackberry and its 3:25am lol.

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morning all looks like its nailed for at lest one week the gfs has now joined the others,now of to work !!

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Overnight change for Saturday. The low pushing a lot further south just clipping the South coast. Most of the region would remain dry. The Northern boundary would probably be Sth London.

Monday looks like proper snowmageddon! Huge band of precipitation could easily dump 4-6 inches quite widely before another band behind it comes in for Tuesday.

Just seen this in Carol K's BBC forecast.

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Overnight change for Saturday. The low pushing a lot further south just clipping the South coast. Most of the region would remain dry. The Northern boundary would probably be Sth London.

Monday looks like proper snowmageddon! Huge band of precipitation could easily dump 4-6 inches quite widely before another band behind it comes in for Tuesday.

Just seen this in Carol K's BBC forecast.

Morning mate, sounds ace, what did carol say?

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