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Robbie Garrett

CET latest update/Low Solar Acitivity...

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HadCET_graph_ylybars_uptodate.gif

Looking at the above, we are currently having the biggest drop in CET since the 1800s. CET drop constistent with colder winters, wetter Summers??

All linked to solar activity??

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If the suggested links between the Jet and UV proves correct (and I can see no real reason why it should't) I would find it very hard to write-off the suggestion...But, as BFTV says, it's likely to be one factor out of many...

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If you construct a distribution for 1772-1893, and then another 1894-2012, a comparison of the two looks like this,

post-5986-0-06534000-1364401643_thumb.pn

(the distribution bins were calculated by using (cet_max - cet_min) / 30 to give 30 equally sized bins.

If we classify the data, so we can all talk to each other in natural English, something like this,

post-5986-0-94310000-1364401801.png

we arrive at a frequency table looking something like this,

post-5986-0-82067300-1364401897_thumb.pn

that looks on a chart like this,

post-5986-0-72416200-1364401995_thumb.pn

I was quite surprised at how obvious it is - and also an argument against using trend lines, I think.

:)

EDIT: All the above is for yearly CET means.

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The significant feature for me on Robbie's chart in the opening post is actually the period 1980 - 2010. I agree that there is likely to be a link between solar activity and the weather patterns which affect our temperature in the UK, but if the link was straightforward then I would expect the solar activity in the 1980 - 2010 (1988 - 2006 in particular) to be at a record high.

As the sunspot chart shows in PM's link above this isn't the case. Activity is high, but slightly below the period around 1960. A lag time therefore makes sense, but if this is the case then you would either expect the current UK temperatures to still be largely influenced by the high solar activity in the past 20 years, or for there to be a higher peak in the CET in the early 1960s. The UK is probably too small a region to accurately measure the effects and / or other factors also play a part in the temperatures that reach our shores.

Another option could be that the high CET anomaly between 1980 - 2010 is a result of weather patterns caused by the build-up of increased solar activity since around 1950 rather than a response to any one particular peak. Again if this is the case you might expect that we would need to wait a while longer to notice a response to the current low solar activity.

The cold winter in 1963 occurred during a minumum but not a particularly deep one (according to the chart anyway) and not in any unusually low cycle - in fact it looks like it was just after the highest cycle peak - so you could also argue that it is not the level of activity but the level of change which is the important factor. This is probably just a coincidence but it might also explain how we could experience the effects now due to a change to low activity after a sustained period of high activity. It is more than likely a coincidence because it wouldn't explain the colder winter months of the mid 1980s, for example, or why the Little Ice Age lasted so long, unless again it is dependent on other factors.

I think the only way we will know for sure is by waiting a while longer to see how this all pans out!

The period c1820 - 1835 looks interesting as it seems to be a warmer CET period coinciding with lower solar activity. Also the late 18th Century which had higher activity and lower CET values.

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I think we need to look at all the 'real' things that are going on in our atmosphere to figure why it acts a certain way?

When I think of solar I generally think of TSI at ground level and atmosphere's edge and we see that we have an odd discrepency there? Even before we look at small drops in solar out put we need to look at why we appear to have lost a significant portion of the solar reaching us in the troposphere? Whilst I accept that solar activity is falling I also wonder why we suddenly have lost a portion that should be heatring us? We are told that human activity is mimicking volcanic activity in that it is placing both Sulphates and particulate polution into the atmosphere 'shielding us' from recieving our full share of the energy.

Then we have greenhouse gasses. Surely the rapid rise in heat trapping gasses must also have a 'real impact' on our atmospheres workings?

Then we have 'Albedo flip' with both mountain snow cover and Polar ice waning. This both arrests the amount of incoming solar that is lost to high albedo and also allows the same surface to accept that solar energy (a change from 90% reflectance to 90% acceptance for snow/ice over water/dark surface).

Then we have the planets 'energy budget' itself and the changes the above must have upon it.

I believe the least of these forcing to be 'solar varience'? Mankinds 'sunshade' would only need to be slighty less impacting to more than compensate for any drop off in energy that we know the sun capable of having.

We are told that small /medium volcanic activities have been of a scale to show impact on the amount of energy arriving this past 10 yrs so will that 'slow' back to average (and allow more solar in?) or will Indo-China's pollution measures start to take effect (7 years before the sulphates drop out but any reductions in 'replacement sulphates' will be felt immediiately?).

Are we to see further changes to the planets Albedo? Canada's Glaciers look set to go and the true can be said of many of the temperate/tropical ice.And what od summer ice cover in both hemisphere's? Well the Arctic appears on a 'death spiral' with the sub million pack possible before 2020 but isn't Antarctic 'growing'? Well compared to the losses seen across the north (18% further reduction last summer) the 1% increase there looks paltry? The other factor is the southern ocean which limits the extent ice can grow to. On top of that we now see the Ozone issues there begin to right themselves. Science tells us that the Ozone issue was the reason for recent (20yr) upswings in sea ice cover due to it's atmospheric impacts on the circumpolar winds, and so currents, around Antarctic. T%his would seem to signal the end of the positive ice anoms and allow global warmth through the curtain of circumpolars to the continent beyond?

Finally we have the energy that used to be spent on melting ice that is made redundant by ice melt. What kind of an amount of energy is now being freed up in the climate system by it no longer being need to melt ice and what is it now doing?

To alter the sinuosity of the Jet it needs less energy in it. You can do this by lessening the temperature/pressure gradient between the pole and equator (the two most extreme ends of the hemisphere. You can do this by cooling the equator (as we see with large equatorial volcanic eruptions) or by raising the temp at the Pole (by ice melt and albedo flip).

Do we see either of those events occuring today and do we see the temp/pressure gradient lessening? (facts only please!)

So what happens to a sluggish jet? Well it would appear to lead to 'blocking' as peaks and troughs in the wave become slower moveing. As High pressure forms it influences it's own development by ,in winter, allowing deep cold and so dense cols air at the surface deepening the pressure and , in summer, drying the land and so allowing even higher temps. The low pressure systems become blocked and static as the Jets troughs peaks are forced around the High pressure.

Has last years record low upped the anti in this respect? Have we seen any Deep Cold H.P. systrems over the past winter that have influence circulation patterns across our Hemisphere? If so what would any 'ramp up' of the past 6 years summer patterns involve? Will we see an even more impressive HP set up over S. Greenland? Will the Continental HP's be more extensive?If so where will it force the Jet arm that has blighted our summers this past 6 years?? will it be forced more east or west by HP 'extensions' or will it be blocked completely by northern blocking highs from Greenland/Europe?

One thing is certain. If we see any augmentation in the pattern of the last 6 years it will not be at the hand of 'solar varience', of which there has been little, but at the hands of a further significant change in ice cover last year (and the weakness left for this seasons melt).

To my eyes 07' had instant impact (as such a huge change to the ice cover should?) so a similar scale event ,last year, should bring instant impacts also. If this is what we see will it not relegate solar varience into a more minor role compared with changes to the surface/atmosphere of the planet on climate?

Remember, set against a slow constant orbital change 'solar forcing' the planet ,coming from an ice age, displays sudden and very large scale changes to climate. These climate swings are not as a response to sudden solar forcings but to sudden albedo changes and changes to ice amounts, on the planets surface. A pattern which, though far less in scale, appears to be ongoing now?

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Sorry Sparkicle, the CET is not going to prove useful in highlighting 'extreme weather events' is it?

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Sorry Sparkicle, the CET is not going to prove useful in highlighting 'extreme weather events' is it?

Yes, because extreme weather is defined as such and such standard deviations from the mean - and the CET is the mean of (of most of) English weather. Unless, of course, you define extreme as something else?

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So what did the CET tell us about the Flash floods many regions saw? The cloud cover leading to one of the wettest years may have hinted at that but not given any idea of what was occurring? Neither could it show the Funnel cloud i saw out Wakefield way?

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I don't think it could really be tied to just one thing. Perhaps a mix of solar, sea ice and PDO changes.

Hi, BFTV.

A genuine question (as always).....is it not the sun that causes changes to sea ice and ocean currents?

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So what did the CET tell us about the Flash floods many regions saw? The cloud cover leading to one of the wettest years may have hinted at that but not given any idea of what was occurring? Neither could it show the Funnel cloud i saw out Wakefield way?

If you don't want to talk about the climate series, CET, and solar activity, I suggest you have the wrong thread. My point remains: extremes (in temperature) are measured by their distance from climatic average.

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Hi, BFTV.

A genuine question (as always).....is it not the sun that causes changes to sea ice and ocean currents?

Hi noggin.

I'm not aware of studies linking solar changes to the PDO, though the solar cycle variations may influence the gulf stream in some ways. There may be studies linking solar activity to variations in sea ice cover in particular regions of the Arctic, but these are normally balanced out by opposing variations in another region. As of now, most of the blame for sea ice loss has been put down to warming, whatever one believes the source of the warming to besmile.png

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This is what the last 30 years of the CET looks like once you remove any trend and adjust for seasonal variation,

post-5986-0-34923600-1365177393_thumb.pn

I suppose we must be more specific about what is going on, here. A time-series chart could be considered to be three components: a trend, seasonal variation, and noise. We can consider a time series, to be Di=Ti+Si+Ni. It is the case, then, that if you take out the trend, Ti, and then any seasonal variation, Si, you are left with the noise, Ni, which, arguably, is what the temperature series is actually doing.

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I agree that there is likely to be a link between solar activity and the weather patterns which affect our temperature in the UK, but if the link was straightforward then I would expect the solar activity in the 1980 - 2010 (1988 - 2006 in particular) to be at a record high.

There is no direct link between sunspot count and CET temperatures,

post-5986-0-32882900-1365178388_thumb.pn

Of course, that is not what is posited; the argument isn't so much the quantity of irradiance (which hardly ever varies) it is it's composition,

post-5986-0-30390100-1365178967_thumb.jp

SOURCE: Courtesy of Greg Kopp, University of Colorado.

Effectively, the quantity of EUV (extreme ultraviolet) changes tenfold over the solar cycle which has profound consequences for the chemistry of the upper atmosphere. It is (currently) believed that this affect is regional, and not global, since the amplifications required have to come from the surface. However, whilst this is probably the case, I can't quite get out of thinking that a global temperature series is made up from lots of little local ones ....

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