Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>

[Dave Kightley]

The pattern is just to far east! Any il stop complaining as the UKMO is a little better maybe

[Cheshire Freeze]

GEM poor upstream at 102 unfortunately

[Wilxy]

GEM and NOGAPS saying no and worrying the UKMO has a similer shortwave developing.

[Cheshire Freeze]

GEM and NOGAPS saying no and worrying the UKMO has a similer shortwave developing.

Never just simple is it?

[Wilxy]

Never just simple is it?

And GEM had been consistant aswel until now so im not disgarding the idea either.

[PolarWarsaw]

A poor start to the day if it's longevity your after, and a certain decline in snow likelihood. 50-50 whether I should stay up for the ECM.

[rory o gorman]

this is indeed a worrying trend , stronger ejection from the eastern sea board on all runs tonight in the middle term.

[Snowfan50]

Shortwaves always seem to pop up in the short term, its like they cant be modeld in the medium term.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Poor-

Energy going over the top, no undercut etc etc

Typical GFS says yes then those that were saying yes say no.

UKMO a half way house.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I'm done with this thread its obvious you haven't got a clue what your talking about. Shortwaves bloody hell have you seen where the Jet is going to go into the latter part of next week and beyond, the Jet takes low pressure wherever it goes. Unbelievable, are you all on the drink or something.

How is the GEM not poor-

Pick something positive out of that compared to what it was showing just 12 hours ago.

We're into SW'ly winds on that chart

Edited January 11, 2013 by CreweCold

[Cheshire Freeze]

Its one run, starting to wind me up now all this negative rubbish.

I'm merely commenting on what the 0z NWP has churned out

GFS- Awesome

UKMO- So So

GEM- Awful

[Met4Cast]

Poor-

Energy going over the top, no undercut etc etc

Typical GFS says yes then those that were saying yes say no.

UKMO a half way house.

In the scheme of things synoptically its such a small change which leads to everything crashing down - NOGAPS as far as I know has chopped and changed between the top options, I haven't been following it myself though so I might be wrong.

The GEM is backtrack

UKMO as you say, halfway house

GFS still good, albeit cold gets pushed further East

I don't know where we're heading if i'm honest, if the ECM backtracks it might just be game over, or not, either way we're going to see a cold spell lasting until at least Tuesday

[MrSunshine]

How is the GEM not poor-

Pick something positive out of that compared to what it was showing just 12 hours ago.

We're into SW'ly winds on that chart

Plus may I add the GEM is a very poor model to follow with a pathetic sucess rate!

[Met4Cast]

Plus may I add the GEM is a very poor model to follow with a pathetic sucess rate!

Perhaps, but until now it has been consistently cold, it has now flipped to the milder option so we can't completely disregard it just because it's the GEM

[Cheshire Freeze]

Plus may I add the GEM is a very poor model to follow with a pathetic sucess rate!

Well we await the ECM but given the swings back towards a less sustained cold outlook this morning, if it backtracks then things aren't looking as good as they were IMO.

I'm off to bed anyway,not waiting up for the ECM.

[tight isobar]

GFS,UKMO,GEM.downgrdes of sorts this morning,in regards prolonged cold, and uppers and the like,with even things suggs, further east,on output. This exites myself,minor blips i feel before much stronger signals v,soon.i feel this is the models prep in agree of longeveity, and perhaps deeper set cold for our shores....sure ecm will not be budging..

[manutdmatt1986]

Just viewed a GFS run that is full of snow potential with central and eastern areas being absolutely buried yet all I see on here is negative comments.

UKMO also looks ok to me.

[rory o gorman]

ok we have a cold ramper on board tonight . stick to the synoptics , showing 3 models all downgraded medium term with a similar thread= its a worry.

[Liam J]

I think some of you need to calm down in here! No knee jerk reactions to just one run, yes the GEM is very poor in comparison to recent runs but I think it's wise to wait until later just to see if it's going to maintain this trend. Slightly worrying but we have the ECM yet, GFS is still ok at this stage and far better than many runs prior to last nights 18z.

[MrSunshine]

In the scheme of things synoptically its such a small change which leads to everything crashing down - NOGAPS as far as I know has chopped and changed between the top options, I haven't been following it myself though so I might be wrong.

The GEM is backtrack

UKMO as you say, halfway house

GFS still good, albeit cold gets pushed further East

I don't know where we're heading if i'm honest, if the ECM backtracks it might just be game over, or not, either way we're going to see a cold spell lasting until at least Tuesday

I'm confident the ECM won't back down because I honestly believe its the most accurate solution, if I'm wrong next week shoot me down in flames but until then trust me on this.

[AWD]

All at T144;

Still too many variables being thrown out to have any confidence on any specific route we go next week. There's a case for both cold & mild currently.

[MrSunshine]

I think some of you need to calm down in here! No knee jerk reactions to just one run, yes the GEM is very poor in comparison to recent runs but I think it's wise to wait until later just to see if it's going to maintain this trend. Slightly worrying but we have the ECM yet, GFS is still ok at this stage and far better than many runs prior to last nights 18z.

Well said Liam in total agreement with you mate.

[reef]

New thread:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75508-winter-model-discussion-110113-00z-onwards/