Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 9th January 2013>

[TwisterGirl81]

I am so dissapointed in the weather models this morning, it doesn't look they'll be any snow really in Devon!! Grrrr Like we really need more rain.....Also metcheck are saying milder conditions to push in on Wednesday....I give up!!

[offerman]

Twister, I know the feeling, you might be surprised i reckon you could get 5cm at least so a day or two of fun before it melts and at least it falls at the weekend. Some positives there.

I have feeling February might be a good month for us, just hunch nothing more.

Good luck , what part of devon as large variances there two as in my area of somerset, if you are East devon then more chance.

[lfcdude]

WOW!!! was looking at 3 weather websites and two of them changed there headline and warings at the same time yet different companies.

Anyway take a look at the warning, Mendip,Cotswolds (i`m on edge of these)marlborough in particular but 10cm widely southern Britain, does that mean the areas i mentioned could get more when they say particuarly or just higher chance of 10cm? the areas in the zone are Trwobridge, Frome, warminster, Devices,Westbury and few others.See warning below:

ssued

Thu 10 Jan: 11:00 GMT

Valid Until

Sun 13 Jan : 12:00 GMT

Weather Watch For Ice & Snow

A period of much colder weather is expected across the UK this weekend with temperatures at or below zero for many areas.

Ice on roads will become hazardous over the next 24 hours as a band of rain pushes East into Western and Central England and Wales. Rain also across Eastern areas will freeze overnight leading to icy patches on untreated roads.

A band of Rain, sleet and snow will push into Central and Southern England during Saturday. It is likely that temperatures will be cold enough to allow for accumulations, especially across an area around the Cotswolds, Mendip and Marlborough Hills. However, all areas South of Birmingham should prepare for up to 10cm of snow during Saturday and overnight into Sunday.

I fancy my chances in Devizes..... But what site you get that from?

[gottolovethisweather]

I am so dissapointed in the weather models this morning, it doesn't look they'll be any snow really in Devon!! Grrrr Like we really need more rain.....Also metcheck are saying milder conditions to push in on Wednesday....I give up!!

You're right, I'd give up. Come back Wednesday and let me know how you got on.

Snow is unpredictable at even less than six hours ahead, rain is easier to predict so I guess you have a 50% chance of it raining against a 50% chance of it snowing. That's presuming we get the precipitation in the first place.

Edited January 10, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Iceberg]

Seems sensible to me offerman, still considerable uncertainty if you go through the 20 odd GFS ENS members over that timeframe for the SW you get systems ranging from 1000mb to 1010mb for saturday night, double core systems, some much tighter east winds, precip only getting as far as the M4 or all the way to manchester.

NAE the all important way to go.

Re longer term GFS ENS do take an important step towards the Meto and ECM imho.

[AWD]

Latest NMM output shows rain turning to snow at 13:00 on Saturday across Gloucestershire, Forest of Dean, North Wiltshire;

This bodes well for regions further south later on Saturday providing the colder air continues to undercut.

[lfcdude]

Latest NMM output shows rain turning to snow at 13:00 on Saturday across Gloucestershire, Forest of Dean, North Wiltshire;

This bodes well for regions further south later on Saturday providing the colder air continues to undercut.

Looking good so far.... looking forward to the nae tonight

[offerman]

ifc Dude, Metcheck.

[khodds]

Off to work in a bit. Can I have the strength NOT to look on here until I get home?! Not sure! Oh well. The only thing I can be sure about is its going to rain today.

Feel I may be subscribing to the NW radar very soon.......!

[Bumpkin]

My feelings are (nothing scientific involved) that its next weekend onwards that things will happen properly winter-wise. Thats when i think the effects of the ssw will start being felt.

Just remember that you get whatever the weather gives you and there is nothing you can do about it.

[sandhurst-smoker]

Off to work in a bit. Can I have the strength NOT to look on here until I get home?! Not sure! Oh well. The only thing I can be sure about is its going to rain today.

Feel I may be subscribing to the NW radar very soon.......!

The radar is well worth the subscription.

had it for 3yrs never looked back

[khodds]

The radar is well worth the subscription.

had it for 3yrs never looked back

Yep, I get it when cold spells are due. Love it!

[AWD]

Talking about cold, its freezing out there now.

Currently 3.7c here.

[khodds]

Going back to Ian's post earlier on the MOD thread. It gives me hope that Exeter don't use GFS. I understand that it doesn't mean GFS is wrong, but it gives me more confidence.

You are right - it is already blooming cold AWD! I can't get warm this morning.

[A.J]

just a general reminder to all members in our thread....If you're going to post in the Model Output Discussion please make it relevant and on topic, otherwise it will be binned, and means more work load for the snowed under (no pun intented) moderating team.....ta!

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

Drove to Tavistock this morning and looking towards Cornwall, Kit Hill, which is between Dartmoor and Bodmin Moor definately had a white peak this morning.

It's 330m asl and it was above the mist and fog and my husband confirmed that it wasn't a mirage, definately white. From 10 miles away I doubt we'd notice if it was frost, so was it hail, sleet or snow I wonder. Not sure, heading in the right direction though.

[Frosty_wsm]

Going back to Ian's post earlier on the MOD thread. It gives me hope that Exeter don't use GFS.

Actually they do look at the gfs, question is how much faith they have in that model, or any at the moment with so much uncertainty.

[latitude]

Going back to Ian's post earlier on the MOD thread. It gives me hope that Exeter don't use GFS. I understand that it doesn't mean GFS is wrong, but it gives me more confidence.

You are right - it is already blooming cold AWD! I can't get warm this morning.

Yes but the model is either right or wrong..Simples. The wont discount it. Lets be honest the GFS was the FIRST to pick up this cold spell and the FIRST to pick up the short waves the ECM now shows around Greenland.

If the GFS 06 is right, then the cold air is gone Monday at lunchtime.

We are looking for a massive turn around by the GFS or a gradual downgrading of the whole pattern from the UKMETO and ECM later.

[A.J]

Going back to Ian's post earlier on the MOD thread. It gives me hope that Exeter don't use GFS. I understand that it doesn't mean GFS is wrong, but it gives me more confidence.

You are right - it is already blooming cold AWD! I can't get warm this morning.

you might want to re-read Ian's post again........they do use GFS modelling as well as numerous other modelling for analysis

[khodds]

Oops sorry. Just how I read it...

[latitude]

[A.J]

hey there....that's a nice looking chart you've got there, care to elaborate?

[gottolovethisweather]

For the fifth day in a row the MetO 6-15 dayer has mentioned the word snow, now that is what I call consistent. It is also what I call, stepping back and taking the overall model suite output for what it is, a guide or general trend as what conditions are to be expected in the near future.

http://forum.netweat...40#entry2475711

Game on and we're less than 48 hours away from seeing the first snowflakes over certain parts of this region.

Edited January 10, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[latitude]

hey there....that's a nice looking chart you've got there, care to elaborate?

Just a ECM PPN chart. Shows how the PPN is all but gone at 18.00 Saturday. But a nice little blob over Dartmoor.

For the fifth day in a row the MetO 6-15 dayer has mentioned the word snow, now that is what I call consistent. It is also what I call, stepping back and taking the overall model suite output for what it is, a guide or general trend as what conditions are to be expected in the near future.

http://forum.netweat...40#entry2475711

Game on and we're less than 48 hours away from seeing the first snowflakes over certain parts of this region.

Only takes the ECM and UKMETO to follow the GFS regarding the shortwave and all that would change overnight.

Edited January 10, 2013 by latitude

[gottolovethisweather]

Going back to Ian's post earlier on the MOD thread. It gives me hope that Exeter don't use GFS. I understand that it doesn't mean GFS is wrong, but it gives me more confidence.

You are right - it is already blooming cold AWD! I can't get warm this morning.

Indeed khodds, but it is good to use their ensembles/12z output side by side as a trend, which I hope I have shown by my posts from the past.

As an example, the colder trend was suggested, way back in late December.

http://forum.netweat...20#entry2459740

and then come the 3rd January, this showed.

http://forum.netweat...00#entry2462930

By the 8th January, the colder trend was nailed.

http://forum.netweat...60#entry2471051

So whilst we are not currently seeing SNOW falling on our roofs, the period from the 12th to the 15th remains a timeframe of great uncertainty and fascination.

Edited January 10, 2013 by gottolovethisweather