Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 9th January 2013>

[dancing daisy]

The mod thread annoys me. If people can't read charts then they should keep their bleedin' mouths shut OR at least state that they are learning.

'The charts are great'

'6 hours of snow'

'It's all gone wrong'

'Snow from Saturday'

'Where's the snow gone?'

'The ECM is looking good'

'The ECM is showing rain'

Grrrrrrr.

I wouldn't dream of posting my thoughts on the charts in the mod thread as I know nothing compared to many knowledgeable posters.

Edited January 10, 2013 by dancing daisy

[caz100]

hello not a good reader of the weather, just an interested person of the weather anyway I'm right down near truro. Do you think we are going to miss the big snow every event? thanks

[Bristawl Si]

It is really manic in the isn't it aceman

People still don't seem to get the uncertainty ATM so any chart beyond t96 will be wrong IMHO

Snow charts are nice to look at but tbh mean just as much as flat Atlantic ones

The only real signal for some Greenland heights and possible sliding lows which is what the meto have been saying

Gl all

Looks like a real nowcasting event Saturday/Sunday then?

Saturday day/p.m. maybe rain, Saturday night poss snow?

Is the Monday snow 'event' still on?

Models not converging yet on next week's weather i think, from what i can gather in the Mod Disc thread.

For fear of sounding like a stuck record, just feels like one of those North/East v West splits approaching for next week. By that i mean North and East colder, maybe snowier - whilst Western areas slightly less cold with less chance of decent snow.

BUT maybe a chance of being right in the firing line for one of those battleground events, hopefully on the 'right' side with snow.

V uncertain still. More ups and downs on the model rollercoaster i reckon with no early resolution i suspect.

[jessandjon]

Daily express have snow on the front page :-( will prob be hot and sunny now!!!

[quantock girl]

The mod thread annoys me. If people can't read charts then they should keep their bleedin' mouths shut OR at least state that they are learning.

'The charts are great'

'6 hours of snow'

'It's all gone wrong'

'Snow from Saturday'

'Where's the snow gone?'

'The ECM is looking good'

'The ECM is showing rain'

Grrrrrrr.

I wouldn't dream of posting my thoughts on the charts in the mod thread as I know nothing compared to many knowledgeable posters.

Just come from the mad house!! No clearer for me either - let's say it will get colder, it might squeeze some white stuff out of the sky for us, it might not. The best snow events for me have always been forecast just hours before, not days. The best one was 2010 when a little low built up over France and trundled NW, it just turned to snow and stalled, that was only forecast about 6 hours before the event.

[Jayfromcardiff]

I know this isnt the welsh thread guys but any chance of snow in cardiff? Does the nae come into range tonight?

[AWD]

I know this isnt the welsh thread guys but any chance of snow in cardiff? Does the nae come into range tonight?

NAE starts touching the range tonight yes. Positive early signs from that model, but we will start to have a clearer picture of where the NAE takes us tonight & tomorrow.

Still could go either way. Ian's thoughts will be of interest later.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Cheers mate appreciate it. I'll be gutted if we have no snow at all.

[PompeyFC]

the GFS chart shows at 6am Sunday -3/-4 850's which may just be enough for snow depending on other factors like surface temperature I think, dew point looks ok although right on the coast will be marginal I suspect and 528 DAM line is over us on the south coast at 6am so as somneone else said here will be a case of get your backside looking out of a window from 6am onwards sunday

A more precise location of precipitation won't be known until Saturday really.

[egret]

Hi QG, your comment echos my own thoughts. All the arguing in MOD does my head in. Recalling the huge pendulum swings in 2010 when the November major cold (and later December snow in the SW) only firmed up at very last minute.

In fact I have a bit of a liking for models to sway away in the preceding week as they so often swing back at 48 to 24 hrs timeframe. The SSW commentary and incredible warming that we saw suggests to me that this event could be different from the normal and as such we could be facing a classic two week cold spell with chance of SW getting decent snowfall from any lows that venture along up the English Channel or down from the North.

I will remain 'chilled' (sorry for the pun) until Mid day outputs tomorrow which should give reasonably reliable detail for the weekend and greater certainty as to what is likely follow. Gut instinct is that the probabilities still rest at 40%+ for 5cm snow to areas South of the M4 within a week and 10% chance of considerably greater depths.

Hopefully Saturday morning will see me waxing the runners of the toboggans!

[Nights King]

I do find it a little worying the way west country has a less snowy outlook this morning with continued emphasis on east because if saturdays rain/snow doesnt deliver then where are we going?!

[latitude]

Its a case of getting the Netweather Radar now for the weekend I think, and keep a close eye on the system as it evolves through Saturday. Higher ground will get a few cm's it seems, but IMBY I am fully expecting to wake up to damp dull conditions Sunday morning with snow across the nearby Mendip hills.

As for the model output..well. Taking the GFS purely on it own this is how it looks to me:

Saturday - rain and the odd tranisitional snow late saturday night.

Sunday - Damp in the morning but a brighter cold day.

Monday - Cold and dry

Tuesday - Milder air pushes in

Now that is depressing reading I know! IF and IF the GFS was right this could be a complete non-event for most areas of the SW, just a few cold days!

[Nights King]

Its a case of getting the Netweather Radar now for the weekend I think, and keep a close eye on the system as it evolves through Saturday. Higher ground will get a few cm's it seems, but IMBY I am fully expecting to wake up to damp dull conditions Sunday morning with snow across the nearby Mendip hills.

As for the model output..well. Taking the GFS purely on it own this is how it looks to me:

Saturday - rain and the odd tranisitional snow late saturday night.

Sunday - Damp in the morning but a brighter cold day.

Monday - Cold and dry

Tuesday - Milder air pushes in

Now that is depressing reading I know! IF and IF the GFS was right this could be a complete non-event for most areas of the SW, just a few cold days!

Reminds me of december.... I really hope we see the GFS back down at least that would give hope of a snowy spell later down the line? Right I'm off to work to forget about it all until later.

[AWD]

Regarding this weekend, best models to look at will be the high res NAE & NMM output. These models are designed for short term detailed forecasting.

Also the UKV model with Ian's help! :p

[Lynxus]

Reminds me of december.... I really hope we see the GFS back down at least that would give hope of a snowy spell later down the line? Right I'm off to work to forget about it all until later.

I'm still confident that the GFS will back down slowly.

The next run starts in 10 mins.. So fingers crossed that its a little nicer!

( Currently foggy with drizzle, 2.0c )

Edited January 10, 2013 by Lynxus

[khodds]

Reminds me of december.... I really hope we see the GFS back down at least that would give hope of a snowy spell later down the line? Right I'm off to work to forget about it all until later.

You've got the right attitude there Mullender. I'm at home this morning, preparing myself for more wrist slashing imminently. I'm like a moth to the flame! But even when I'm at work I end up having a window open on the PC or a sneaky look at my phone!

The post from egret gives me a little hope though.

The 06z is imminent. Strap yourselves in..... On the plus side its turning out lovely here, lovely hazy morning, pink sky (ooh!) and 5.0c.

[jethro]

I've just popped my head into the Mod thread.....confusing! To be fair, I find reading the models confusing in the midst of summer with nowt but high pressure to look at.

From what I can gather (especially after reading GP's thoughts) we can expect a cooler/cold weekend with the possibility of snow for some but as always, exactly who and where will remain a mystery until a few hours away. Next week may be a little warmer after Mondayish, a cool and unsettled week with the odd surprise thrown in. Thereafter, there are indications it may turn cold again, possible really quite cold.

From memory (albeit one which has old person tendencies) I'm pretty certain the Strat thread, GP, the METO and Ian Ferguson have all said we could expect short lived cold, then milder then perhaps longer term/deeper cold and that the weather this coming weekend was a typical winter offering, nothing to do with Strat warming - merely a bonus. So why are so many people throwing wobblies? Folk moan that forecasts are wrong but then seem to conveniently overlook and forget any which they don't want to happen.

[Nights King]

I've just popped my head into the Mod thread.....confusing! To be fair, I find reading the models confusing in the midst of summer with nowt but high pressure to look at.

From what I can gather (especially after reading GP's thoughts) we can expect a cooler/cold weekend with the possibility of snow for some but as always, exactly who and where will remain a mystery until a few hours away. Next week may be a little warmer after Mondayish, a cool and unsettled week with the odd surprise thrown in. Thereafter, there are indications it may turn cold again, possible really quite cold.

From memory (albeit one which has old person tendencies) I'm pretty certain the Strat thread, GP, the METO and Ian Ferguson have all said we could expect short lived cold, then milder then perhaps longer term/deeper cold and that the weather this coming weekend was a typical winter offering, nothing to do with Strat warming - merely a bonus. So why are so many people throwing wobblies? Folk moan that forecasts are wrong but then seem to conveniently overlook and forget any which they don't want to happen.

SSW causing us colder spell later down the line is no guarantee jeth however promising and we are in january and barely seen a frost so far so all these things plus disapointment of december you have to give us some slack it's been a tough start to winter so far and i'd expect a few of us to be showing the strain...

Anyway I am leaving the pc and working now honest

Edited January 10, 2013 by mullender83

[AWD]

Interesting;

@MattHugo81: Just 11 of the 51 EC ENS members support the GFS in terms of bringing in a milder, Atlantic flow...

@MattHugo81: The other 40 members between Tue-Thu of next week either show a 'slider low' or the bulk of the members (21) show an E or NE'ly flow.

@MattHugo81: Milder solutions do become more evident by the end of next week, but clearly that is in the realms of no-mans-land at the moment...

Can't discount the Op, it is a very plausible scenario, but nice to hear the ensembles still favour a colder solution rather than a milder one next week, with possible snowfall.

Still all to play for! Very nerve-wrecking though!

[gottolovethisweather]

I do find it a little worying the way west country has a less snowy outlook this morning with continued emphasis on east because if saturdays rain/snow doesnt deliver then where are we going?!

Don't worry mullender, in the long run the West and perhaps Central parts will be the place to be, firmly positioned in BATTLEGROUND UK.

[gottolovethisweather]

I'm still confident that the GFS will back down slowly.

The next run starts in 10 mins.. So fingers crossed that its a little nicer!

( Currently foggy with drizzle, 2.0c )

And then I'd largely ignore it and stick with its consistent 12z output, alongside better output from the ECM and MetO.

The individual model runs mentioned above have far more reliable data input chucked into them than any of the overnight and morning runs.

Edited January 10, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[khodds]

Don't worry mullender, in the long run the West and perhaps Central parts will be the place to be, firmly positioned in BATTLEGROUND UK.

I like this! ......the battle lines are being drawn as we speak.... The cold army against the warm.... Which will win... Only one way to fine out..........

[jethro]

SSW causing us colder spell later down the line is no guarantee jeth however promising and we are in january and barely seen a frost so far so all these things plus disapointment of december you have to give us some slack it's been a tough start to winter so far and i'd expect a few of us to be showing the strain...

Anyway I am leaving the pc and working now honest

If you want guarantees then weather isn't a safe bet at any time of year. It's been a bit grim so far but then we live in the SW - mild and wet is the default pattern. Although it's not been the best year for cold weather, you and I have at least had the bonus of snow already, 3inches or so on the 4th of November has got to be a bonus in anyone's books.

[latitude]

Seems the snow event Saturday is moving more SE and coming to nothing. 06z

Coler uppers being kept at bay....interesting.

Edited January 10, 2013 by latitude

[gottolovethisweather]

SSW causing us colder spell later down the line is no guarantee jeth however promising and we are in january and barely seen a frost so far so all these things plus disapointment of december you have to give us some slack it's been a tough start to winter so far and i'd expect a few of us to be showing the strain...

Anyway I am leaving the pc and working now honest

Yes mullender, but would you rather we took the SSW completely away.

Weather in the UK always has to come from very small beginnings to elove into something eventually that bit tastier.

Saturday, for example will start as rain for many, it may remain as rain for the very unlucky few. Thereafter, Sunday looks good due East and I would say West looks like the place to be as we enter the coming week.

We shouldn't expect something astonishing every time the synoptics suggest they will be, but many folk in the UK will wake up to snow cover on Sunday and add to that, many attendant harsh frosts and ICE days, I am very happy.

Yes, I am a fully-fledged member of the glass half full brigade.

Edited January 10, 2013 by gottolovethisweather