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Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 9th January 2013>

Jane Louise

By Jane Louise
in Regional

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

Sounds fascinating if a little dangerous for the motorists. Doubt the upcoming few days will offer that but with cold enough uppers I don't see why not for some winterises even at most low levels in Cornwall. :)

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

I hope we see some snow at least this weekend before the breakdown next week, then i shall be a happy young man biggrin.png.

GFS still on its own but has been for last 3 runs at least so now the question is whats gunna flip come mornings runs, and full credit to gfs if it turns out correct.

Happy model watching smile.png

My gut says (hopes) that gfs will fall in line as we get closer because it just doesnt seem to handle these situations well and all others are against it currently but lets just hope so for sanity sake. tease.gif

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lynnsim Newbie

lynnsim

Posted
  • Location: Holybourne, North East Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny summers, cold and snowy winters. Traditional seasons please!
  • Location: Holybourne, North East Hampshire
Posted

Mon snow could have more easterly bias so we shouldn't get too worked up quite yet.... just a cautionary note!

Do you mean 'easterly bias' as in east of the UK? Or east of this region? (I am south central so that makes a difference for me!)

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted (edited)

Sounds fascinating if a little dangerous for the motorists. Doubt the upcoming few days will offer that but with cold enough uppers I don't see why not for some winterises even at most low levels in Cornwall. smile.png

Considering the models over the next week or two.. It would be wise to at least pack some crisps and choc and a blanket in the boot if you are going anywhere that may get like that *if* we had an event... Just put em in a box in the boot and forget about it.. Never know.. May come in handy.. ( if some of these models actually came off )

Edited by Lynxus
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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

Considering the models over the next week or two.. It would be wise to at least pack some crisps and choc and a blanket in the boot if you are going anywhere that may get like that *if* we had an event... Just put em in a box in the boot and forget about it.. Never know.. May come in handy.. ( if some of these models actually came off )

And if as often is the case it doesn't come off then you can find that nice little forgotten present when your on a long journey for your spring/summer holidays. rofl.gif

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

And if as often is the case it doesn't come off then you can find that nice little forgotten present when your on a long journey for your spring/summer holidays. rofl.gif

Ahh yes.. I love it when you go on holiday.. It normally means storms :)

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

Ahh yes.. I love it when you go on holiday.. It normally means storms smile.png

aggressive.gifacute.gifacute.gif

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lfcdude Accomplished

lfcdude

Posted
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire
Posted (edited)

Ian Salisbury plain?? That's not to bad for Devises then.....Dont worry mullender.. I now pronounce.. roundway downs.. open...

Edited by lfcdude
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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

Latest NAE shows -4/-5hpa temps already into the north of the region by midnight Saturday.

post-12721-0-85432100-1357794211_thumb.j

Could see a little more snow than rain possibly?

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

Hi AWD, what are your views on the latest GFS? Has it got it all wrong do you think?

Who knows! The ECM in around a hour in my opinion will sway me towards either the GFS or UKMO depending on which it supports.

The GFS is certainly plausible and has support from it ensemble suite, but with the majority going with the UKMO, including the Pro's, then you have to favour that currently.

Ask me in around 3 hours when further data has been release! lol. :p

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Dorsetbred Maestro

Dorsetbred

Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
Posted

Wow, 4 pages overnight, something must be going onrofl.gif

Seems a little "cooler" this morning, whilst overcast we have reached the lowly figure of 4.7°C.

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Dorsetbred Maestro

Dorsetbred

Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
Posted

Latest NAE shows -4/-5hpa temps already into the north of the region by midnight Saturday.

post-12721-0-85432100-1357794211_thumb.j

Could see a little more snow than rain possibly?

Interesting as looking at various charts the low appears to track slightly further SW than initial thoughts, which if it does track more in that direction then the colder air will be more aggressive even down here.

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

Interesting as looking at various charts the low appears to track slightly further SW than initial thoughts, which if it does track more in that direction then the colder air will be more aggressive even down here.

My thoughts too. Looking forward to its future output in anticipation.

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted (edited)

People are nuts in the model thread, posting ridiculous comments. AWD - do you think the gfs should be believed over the other models mate?

See a few posts about mate. Can't ignore it but have to favour the majority currently.

ECM rolling out now so thus could help sway in one direction or another.

0z ECM doesn't have the cold air making inroads to the UK quite as quick as the NAE.

Not as cold as other models this weekend, snow boundary definetly further north on this run,

Wouldn't go in the MOD thread if I were you, ECM looking a little uh oh!

Edited by AWD
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Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

GFS is quite good for the SW over the weekend, as it gives snow for many and mainly snow, very little rain.However when you compare it with the NAE at lower depth nae is indicating heavily that even the likes of east somerset and north dorset might see pure snow. 4 charts 2 from nae showing 1000-850 thickness and dps and the same from gfs. Nae dps of -1, gfs dps of 2.

Key for me is the thinkness chart which indicates the cold in place before the precip for many people, far more than the meto are predicting, we could see a big improvement from the meto for snow in our region.

Longer range, gem, meto, EC EPS etc all going for prolonged cold and thats good enough for me.

post-6326-0-05221800-1357798824_thumb.gi

post-6326-0-72547700-1357798836_thumb.gi

post-6326-0-59427800-1357798848_thumb.gi

post-6326-0-57431400-1357798935_thumb.gi

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Aceman Apprentice

Aceman

Posted
  • Location: Filton, Bristol (62m ASL 210ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, cold, frosty / Warm but not hot with a steady breeze
  • Location: Filton, Bristol (62m ASL 210ft)
Posted

GFS is quite good for the SW over the weekend, as it gives snow for many and mainly snow, very little rain.However when you compare it with the NAE at lower depth nae is indicating heavily that even the likes of east somerset and north dorset might see pure snow. 4 charts 2 from nae showing 1000-850 thickness and dps and the same from gfs. Nae dps of -1, gfs dps of 2.

Key for me is the thinkness chart which indicates the cold in place before the precip for many people, far more than the meto are predicting, we could see a big improvement from the meto for snow in our region.

Longer range, gem, meto, EC EPS etc all going for prolonged cold and thats good enough for me.

Thanks for the update iceberg, mod thread very confusing, glad we have some very knowledgeable guys in the sw thread who can sum it up.

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Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

Just a quick look an meto have updated the forecast for Shaftesbury again

Snow now for 12 hrs from 6pm sat to 6am Sunday. Big improvement.

Just need them to start the snow 6 hrs earlier and ill be happy with 18 hrs of snow come on meto take a look at your nae :)

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

GFS is quite good for the SW over the weekend, as it gives snow for many and mainly snow, very little rain.However when you compare it with the NAE at lower depth nae is indicating heavily that even the likes of east somerset and north dorset might see pure snow. 4 charts 2 from nae showing 1000-850 thickness and dps and the same from gfs. Nae dps of -1, gfs dps of 2.

Key for me is the thinkness chart which indicates the cold in place before the precip for many people, far more than the meto are predicting, we could see a big improvement from the meto for snow in our region.

Longer range, gem, meto, EC EPS etc all going for prolonged cold and thats good enough for me.

I agree, shorter term, bar the EC Det, its looking quite Wintery over the weekend.

Longer term I'm just ruddy lost now!

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Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

It is really manic in the isn't it aceman

People still don't seem to get the uncertainty ATM so any chart beyond t96 will be wrong IMHO

Snow charts are nice to look at but tbh mean just as much as flat Atlantic ones

The only real signal for some Greenland heights and possible sliding lows which is what the meto have been saying

Gl all

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Aceman Apprentice

Aceman

Posted
  • Location: Filton, Bristol (62m ASL 210ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, cold, frosty / Warm but not hot with a steady breeze
  • Location: Filton, Bristol (62m ASL 210ft)
Posted

It's crazy, think I'll stick to in here after each run and see what you and AWD, sir ferguson have to say on it.

Keep telling people at home and work that snow is a 12 hour forecast, nobody listens!

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divadee Enthusiast

divadee

Posted
  • Location: Poole
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Hot Sun (but not at the same time!) 57m asl
  • Location: Poole
Posted

Good morning all.

Just checked out the met office forecast and from 3-9am on Sunday showing light snow. I hope it's true!!! We need a miracle on the coast here to get it at 3 asl!

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