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Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 9th January 2013>


Jane Louise

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

As I said, GFS smile.png It still is good for us..

A week form now? Maybe not.. However it still indicates cooler air and as I mentioned. I WILL correct itself as +96 gets nearer each time..

Our snow risk from the "so called bad run" smile.png ( Im seeing 12 hours + of snow fall )

prectypeuktopo.png

Edited by Lynxus
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Posted
  • Location: Salisbury , Wiltshire
  • Location: Salisbury , Wiltshire

the ECM for example is showing a LP to our north running down the country during monday bringing with it PPN, witht he cold air well established by then this should be of the white stuff.

The 18z GFS has decided this LP goes north not south and this in turn stops the HP in the Atlantic ridging to Greenland and providing us with a block , By block i mean that the Atlantic and Jetstream cant push LP through with mild air attached.

If the GFS 18z is right then the HP is over the UK and we have dry but chilly weather for the start of next week.

very complecated situation as is any weather forcast, especially when we are sat on a tiny island surrounded by warm water!

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

Got to ask....will it snow on the iow? Lol

If you believe the NOGAPS and ECM and BOM and whatever else apart from the GFS then yeah. Its possible.

( Someone posted in MOD )

nogaps-1-144.png?09-23

Edited by Lynxus
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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

So do you think us at the end of the line ,might get lucky this time?

Cant say ia'm that confident to be honest.Same old cold rain .

I only became a South westerner in 2012 so although I know Cornwall is probably the hardest place in the uk to get snow away from the moors I'm not sure how often it gets snow every year or how lucky it is in these situations. How often does west Cornwall see snow a year may I ask if at all that is lol!

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Posted
  • Location: Salisbury , Wiltshire
  • Location: Salisbury , Wiltshire

IOW snow!!!!

check list!

1, full model agreement= NO

2, Ian Brown saying it will be mild n rain= Yes

3, icebergs in the channel= NO

4, Are the cliffs white= Yes

5,Can you see the Mainland= No

6, Are your teeth chattering= NO not yet

might see a bit falling through sat evening, not likely to see snow settleing until sunday

this is a guess

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

In here? Really? laugh.png

I have chosen to ignore the 18z, it's the only way.

I'm wearing a padded white coat....the voices in my head tell me I'll fit in just fine! crazy.gif

I only became a South westerner in 2012 so although I know Cornwall is probably the hardest place in the uk to get snow away from the moors I'm not sure how often it gets snow every year or how lucky it is in these situations. How often does west Cornwall see snow a year may I ask if at all that is lol!

I remember Nov 2005, driving back from Falmouth to Brixham....and being stuck for 10 hours in the middle of the night on top of Bodmin Moor in a blizzard....When it snows Luke, it snows good!

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

I'm wearing a padded white coat....the voices in my head tell me I'll fit in just fine! crazy.gif

I remember Nov 2005, driving back from Falmouth to Brixham....and being stuck for 10 hours in the middle of the night on top of Bodmin Moor in a blizzard....When it snows Luke, it snows good!

I'm sure it does :). Was it snowing in Falmouth then too? :D

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

Well I am fairly happy with this evening, snow chances seem good for west country even on the boogey gfs breakdown run good.gif I really hope gfs falls in line with others but even if it was correct at least we may all get to see a brief snowfall first before all goes way of the pear! drinks.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

Post from Ian F

"Interesting snow distribution/amounts prognosis from UKMO for Sat from UK4 and areal probability for Mon via EC & MOGREPS. Sorry I can't share these but suspect quite a few will be happy with Sat output, e.g. Cotswolds, Salisbury Plain, W Downs etc.... but we await NAE and UKV with interest. Monday much lower confidence of course, but potentially higher impact based on > 5cm snow progs from both EC and MOGREPS. Chief is stressing how models regularly struggle historically with developments that evolve from Greenland and that's why we are seeing such divergent solutions."

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Posted
  • Location: lizard pen south cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: summer thunderstorms snow snow snow
  • Location: lizard pen south cornwall

I only became a South westerner in 2012 so although I know Cornwall is probably the hardest place in the uk to get snow away from the moors I'm not sure how often it gets snow every year or how lucky it is in these situations. How often does west Cornwall see snow a year may I ask if at all that is lol!

Hi there blizzards. I take it you live in the falmouth area from your profile. I live just across the bay in porthallow.(south of helford river).

Living right on the coast,getting snow is not easy. Personally i find a GH with north west winds,the best bet as the weather is coming at us over the spine of cornwall from say the newquay area.

With these east wind channel low scenarious the risks are a lot higher.

Apart from a few occassions most notabily 1987 they usually deliver rain rather than the white stuff.

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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

Ah thanks guys, I feel bad but I'd like a huge blizzard!! Please southwest weather don't let the rain win....we have had enough rain!!!

Mon snow could have more easterly bias so we shouldn't get too worked up quite yet.... just a cautionary note!

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

Mon snow could have more easterly bias so we shouldn't get too worked up quite yet.... just a cautionary note!

Sat / Sun?

GFS is showing a possibility ( Along with others.. ? )

As I keep saying, I personally feel the GFS cant handle easterlies. It never has ( from what i remember ) So i dont trust it past 72hours really.

Edited by Lynxus
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Posted
  • Location: Delabole, North Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Delabole, North Cornwall

Yes I believe it did snow in Falmouth, the whole of Cornwall was covered. It was Friday 25 November 2005.

The met office news archives have an explanation of exactly why we had such a rare and early fall of snow (Cornwall is the least likely place in the UK to see snow) if you feel like looking it up :-)

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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

Sat / Sun?

GFS is showing a possibility ( Along with others.. ? )

Sat. See my comments in mod thread. Re Mon, interesting snow prognosis from EC and MOGREPS for parts of our region but basically we're a long way from confidence on that story.

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

is this a good thing that its got an easterly bias?

I dont think it has to be honest.

GFS struggles when weather comes from the east and we get stubborn HP's

With the atlantic blocked, GFS is really rubbish ( Past 96 hours )

Edit: Thanks Ian.

Edit again: Duhhhh. yeah I already read but didn't sink in haha. Doh

Edited by Lynxus
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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

is this a good thing that its got an easterly bias?

Hmm not really it means currently looks like eastern areas more prone but long way to go before we should worry about missing out. good.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Yes I believe it did snow in Falmouth, the whole of Cornwall was covered. It was Friday 25 November 2005.

The met office news archives have an explanation of exactly why we had such a rare and early fall of snow (Cornwall is the least likely place in the UK to see snow) if you feel like looking it up :-)

...and it was a Cornish only event....When the A30 finally opened (at 3am!) we finally got going and by the time we'd got to Plymouth there was not a trace of snow, they'd had just a little drizzle!

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead, Gloucester 69m ASL
  • Location: Abbeymead, Gloucester 69m ASL

Typical, Gloucester will get a dumping this weekend.........you know when you have this feeling.....

Edited by Snow shut work
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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

...and it was a Cornish only event....When the A30 finally opened (at 3am!) we finally got going and by the time we'd got to Plymouth there was not a trace of snow, they'd had just a little drizzle!

I remember watching the news.. It was pretty much a dry clear day here and you guys down south were stuck on the motorways for hours / over night....... ( if its the same event we are thinking about )

Shocking what a few miles can do.

Typical, Gloucester will get a dumping this weekend.........you when you have this feeling.....

Gloucester != The Cotswolds :)

We in Glos are stuck in this horrid valley.. People 200feet up get 5 foot of snow. We get rain.

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Posted
  • Location: lizard pen south cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: summer thunderstorms snow snow snow
  • Location: lizard pen south cornwall

Yes I believe it did snow in Falmouth, the whole of Cornwall was covered. It was Friday 25 November 2005.

The met office news archives have an explanation of exactly why we had such a rare and early fall of snow (Cornwall is the least likely place in the UK to see snow) if you feel like looking it up :-)

Yeh it lasted about 3 hours.rofl.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

I hope we see some snow at least this weekend before the breakdown next week, then i shall be a happy young man :D.

GFS still on its own but has been for last 3 runs at least so now the question is whats gunna flip come mornings runs, and full credit to gfs if it turns out correct.

Happy model watching :)

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

I remember watching the news.. It was pretty much a dry clear day here and you guys down south were stuck on the motorways for hours / over night....... ( if its the same event we are thinking about )

Shocking what a few miles can do.

Gloucester != The Cotswolds smile.png

We in Glos are stuck in this horrid valley.. People 200feet up get 5 foot of snow. We get rain.

Yep, it started raining in Falmouth around 3pm, changed to sleet/grauple after half an hour or so, so it was time to leave or so I thought, got about 10 miles up the road and it was a white-out and that's how it stayed until the early hours...The Police services in the end managed to get a patrol car up to where we were and they had a tea urn in the boot, which was gratefully recieved by all of us standed motorists!

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