Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 9th January 2013>

[Beast of Plympton]

That sounds lovely Kate - i'd like my young English Springer to have some snow fun this year, he's just turned 2 and has only seen a short-lived dusting thus far

Welcome to NW and to the forum Ian

Here's hoping you get a good load of snow in Dartmoor for your first winter with us

Thaks for the welcome Quantum! And lets hope so, I love the stuff and have the sledge ready!

[fromey]

from what i have just read the short wave that was south of Greenland on the 12z has gone on the 18z at 72 hrs.

fromey

[katemart]

i think when it comes to sat/sun it will be down to now casting, the front could be further north or south the colder air might get here sooner or not.

as always this thread will be invaluable for this.

fromey

Latest posts on the MOD thread seem to be bringing things forward to mid-day on Sat - is this correct? Certainly sub-zero temps at 13:00.

Hopefully the mods will set up a new Snow Reports thread for this spell - my favourite thing is watching the reports slowly coming closer to my location. Stops our senior posters from getting annoyed with us people who like the weather but can't get to grips with the technicalities, as well!

[rowieboyz]

Hi Jason,

A fellow villager, nice one! Im above Lords, where are you?

Could be an interesting weekend by the looks of it if the models play out.

Sorry mods if this is off topic!

Ian

Pm sent Ian, better to chat by pm so we don't annoy anyone. Sorry to everyone else for off topic chat.

Jason

[Jane Louise]

Hey all,

New to Netweather and have been watching the models and comments with great interest, not that I understand them much!

I live in Princetown, Devon, in the middle of Dartmoor.

What are peoples thoughts on extent of snow here over the weekend/next week?

Thanks in advance

Ian

Welcome to Netweather Ian

[Iceberg]

The trend is still our friend. Another run and yet again the permanent snow line if another 15 miles or so further south maybe Chippenham northwards now for our snow sat Sunday

And consequently it turns to snow further south 2 hrs earlier than the last run.

Long may this continue

[latitude]

Short waves......PETE TONG

[fromey]

Latest posts on the MOD thread seem to be bringing things forward to mid-day on Sat - is this correct? Certainly sub-zero temps at 13:00.

Hopefully the mods will set up a new Snow Reports thread for this spell - my favourite thing is watching the reports slowly coming closer to my location. Stops our senior posters from getting annoyed with us people who like the weather but can't get to grips with the technicalities, as well!

from what i have read it could be as early as Sat am, the low is slightly deeper bringing in colder air before it.

but it could change on the next run so stay tuned to here.

fromey

[jessandjon]

Snow for Cornwall I hope

[AWD]

Snow for Cornwall I hope

Not this weekend, no, but keep an eye on next week for possibilities down there.

[Beast of Plympton]

Welcome to Netweather Ian

Thanks Jane. Very exciting times!

[fromey]

its all gone wrong again if i have read the MOD right

cant seem to make head nor tail of it at the moment, may just wait for the dust to settle.

fromey

[Beast of Plympton]

Good man! Make sure it's a robust and sturdy one - you never know, it might get quite a bit of use this year

Haha! I am going all the way up to the mast.... that another 100m up at least! Maybe an ambulance on standby as well

[jessandjon]

Not this weekend, no, but keep an eye on next week for possibilities down there.

Toes are crossed!!!! Not looking chirpy in mod thread at mo

[katemart]

Many thanks for that, i have a feeling my annual leave may be cancelled next week if it does turn bad.

all i will say is just think about your journey, is it really worth it, and plan ahead if it is and just keep up to date with the weather and the warnings!!!

fromey

I do hope not, Fromey.

I would certainly only head out on major roads which had been cleared and only walk to the nearest hill with some white stuff on it. I do have an emergency kit with shovel etc, but actually it might be a good time to give our new campervan a trip out as we intend to do some wild camping over the coming year. There might be a portapotty in it, but there's one hell of a good sound system as well (we bought it for festivalling, not eating sandwiches on the prom!) If we got stranded we'd have a whale of a time

[AWD]

Toes are crossed!!!! Not looking chirpy in mod thread at mo

That's to do with next week and the GFS continuing to offer a different solution to other models. The professionals like Ian will be best to listen to regarding Nexts weeks thought.

For the weekend, the GFS is actually a small upgrade in terms of snow potential across the south.

[Gas Ed]

Think I'll stay away from the Model Output Discussion thread until they've calmed down.

The 18z looks to have had it from Sunday PM onwards, as far as the "slider" on Monday is concerned

Don't fancy being a mod or a forecaster in these situations!

[latitude]

its all gone wrong again if i have read the MOD right

cant seem to make head nor tail of it at the moment, may just wait for the dust to settle.

fromey

I keep posting here, but just get ignored. The short waves around southern greeland are stopping HP ridging towards Greenland. Everything goes flat and the HP topples down which will bring in SW winds. Probably what the 18z will show on this run.

Thats 3 runs now improving the snow for the south in the short term but finishing the cold spell in the medium.

Could end up with wet snow on the weekend, a couple of sunny cold days then mild air pushing in from the west.

THAT IS USING THE GFS OUTPUT

[AWD]

Updated FAX for Sunday;

Whole of the SW in sub 528DAM air and PPN coming in from the west! Mmmmmmmm............

Edited January 9, 2013 by AWD

[Bristawl Si]

Think I'll stay away from the Model Output Discussion thread until they've calmed down.

The 18z looks to have had it from Sunday PM onwards, as far as the "slider" on Monday is concerned

Don't fancy being a mod or a forecaster in these situations!

One for the bin i suspect!

GFS chops and changes too much these last few days.

Remember Ian said MetO dont really use it that much, esp past a few days in the future.

Edited January 9, 2013 by Bristle boy

[Frosty_wsm]

And so the silly posts are starting to appear in the mod thread, jeez some people need to get a grip!

Until I see the big 3 models all showing a mild outlook then there's just as much chance of cold and snow next week as there is of it being mild.

[A.J]

with volatile outputs from the various model agencies, I'd put FI at T72-T96......it's the usual knee jerk reaction in the MOD with members not waiting until the run completes and even then not waiting for the ens which will paint a truer reflection on the output....So please, put the prozac back in the drawer.....take deep long breaths......and out.....and in again.......and out......feel better?...lol

[Costa Del Fal]

Looking quite good for many South Westerners for some sleet/snow this weekend. Not concerned with next week right now. If the GFS 18z is right now even I in Penryn, Near Falmouth may see a little, especially as im at 100M asl.

[latitude]

with volatile outputs from the various model agencies, I'd put FI at T72-T96......it's the usual knee jerk reaction in the MOD with members not waiting until the run completes and even then not waiting for the ens which will paint a truer reflection on the output....So please, put the prozac back in the drawer.....take deep long breaths......and out.....and in again.......and out......feel better?...lol

Haha. But they are discussing the current model output being shown. If it shows mild, thats what will be commented on or visaversa. Thats the whole point of the model thread, and being a public forum, and us all being humans and not machines, emotions will be shown.

Consistancy from the GFS to show milder air from Tuesday.

The GFS was right to pick up this weekends cold before the ECM. Now will the ECM follow tomoz. Very interesting, and brilliant output to follow!

Edited January 9, 2013 by latitude

[dancing daisy]

Latitude no one is ignoring you, we just don't want to hear what you say

Let's keep positive guys, those lovely charts that were put up by Bristle boy are just what the Dr ordered.

Edit>Oops sorry, AWD put up the charts....but I know what I meant

Edited January 9, 2013 by dancing daisy