Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 9th January 2013>

[Bristawl Si]

Haha. But they are discussing the current model output being shown. If it shows mild, thats what will be commented on or visaversa. Thats the whole point of the model thread, and being a public forum, and us all being humans and not machines, emotions will be shown.

Ah, but the best can interpret and draw on experience and knowledge - just like the pros do.

I think John Holmes refers to it as human input.

Never believe everything a computer churns out, esp a weather model - too many variables.

[Beast of Plympton]

Perfect!!

[katemart]

Latitude no one is ignoring you, we just don't want to hear what you say

Yes, I've been looking for the fingers-in-ears-going-la-la-la smiley but there isn't one, so what daisy said.

[divadee]

Right I can't take the excitement and downgrades and upgrades of the model thread so off to bed.

Will be back in here in the morning to hope the models are showing a dec 2010 for bournemouth!

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

Hi Beast of Dartmoor and welcome.

Nice to see another fellow on the moor. Rowieboyz is the only other member I know of now that Dartmoor Matt no longer posts (does anybody know if he's still around or moved to a snowier place?).

Anyway, here's hoping you get some snow in the next few weeks, to make all the model watching worth while.

If you do make it to the top of the mast with the temps that are predicted next week, you're a braver man than me, I'll be waving at your from the Foxes Tor Cafe!!!!

[Gas Ed]

One for the bin i suspect!

GFS chops and changes too much these last few days.

Remember Ian said MetO dont really use it that much, esp past a few days in the future.

I suspect you're spot on.

GFS' 3 consecutive runs today have all been completely different so there's not even consistency in their own output from approx T96

Having said that, I hope it's right for Saturday PM onwards!

[Beast of Plympton]

Hi Beast of Dartmoor and welcome.

Nice to see another fellow on the moor. Rowieboyz is the only other member I know of now that Dartmoor Matt no longer posts (does anybody know if he's still around or moved to a snowier place?).

Anyway, here's hoping you get some snow in the next few weeks, to make all the model watching worth while.

If you do make it to the top of the mast with the temps that are predicted next week, you're a braver man than me, I'll be waving at your from the Foxes Tor Cafe!!!!

Hi Snow Crystal and thanks for the welcome.... Just been speaking to Rowieboyz, turns out he lives 3 doors down from me, random!

Probably waving from Fox Tor is safer, you can wave as I pass the Plume in an ambulance and a much shorter spine!

Here is hoping it turns out good from the models. Dont understand to much but apparently the GFS is being stubborn, but im told ECM is messiah and that puts us in the freezer, coupled with a battleground situation I think I could be working from home next week!

Ian

[AWD]

Well the professionals at Exeter paint a very interesting day on Monday;

[Costa Del Fal]

David Braine for BBC Spotlight has even said wintriness other than the moors this weekend too. Quite a positive outlook for some sleet/snow this weekend for sure.

[otleygas]

Well the professionals at Exeter paint a very interesting day on Monday;

Could you expand please AWD for the benefit of us more metrologically challenged. If that chart were to come to pass, where would any ppn fall as rain and where as snow?

[Lynxus]

This run to me seems ok from a short range perspective...

The GFS was always going to be worse. However its performing as I expected with the west pushing hard to get in and the east winning in the short term.

I expect the GFS to backtrack hour by hour as the days go by with FI in the gfs pretty much at +72

[AWD]

Could you expand please AWD for the benefit of us more metrologically challenged. If that chart were to come to pass, where would any ppn fall as rain and where as snow?

Note the dotted line with the number 528 along it. This is the thickness level, also known as DAM. As a rule of the thumb, when your inside the 528DAM line, there is a high risk of PPN falling as snow.

The PPN is associated with the fronts coming in from the west/north west.

What this FAX suggests is the fronts travelling SE, with the colder air undercutting the PPN and turning it readily to snow. Cornwall however could be the exception.

This could, and I emphasise could, lead to a period of significant snowfall across inland areas.

[AWD]

Which areas COULD see this precip in our region

Pretty much everywhere. It's a frontal band crossing the region.

[Polar Bear]

Right Mr Uk Weather... Yes I mean you not someone on the forums. We need some cold and snow as the old saying says a green January fills the graveyard - We need to kill off bugs and viruses and so we want no downgrades ok. Obviously too not too severe as we also don't want peeps, animals and livelihoods put in danger either. So do your best if you can. Thank you in advance..

... See all this to and fro ing from the models has turned me a bit bonkers so apologies to all for this post .....

Still looking forward though to the runs tomorrow and what story they will bring...

[mrsmall]

I was wondering.....

The meto model is sold on to other agencies and then modified e.g. The bom. Why does it get modified, is it to fine tune it for the Australians weather? Now...

The gfs is a USA model. This being the case it won't be fine tuned to the uk weather patterns as to the Americans they aren't really too worried about a few hundred miles here or there for the uk weather. As we are a small island our weather patterns are harder to predict being on the edge of the atlantic and I would expect that the euro /meto /mogreps is fine tuned for us?

Just a thought at why the gfs may not be the best for uk weather as its wont be tuned for the exact downstream patterns to infinite detail.

Of course I could be talking a load of tosh - can any more experienced members put me out of my misery?

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

This run to me seems ok from a short range perspective...

The GFS was always going to be worse. However its performing as I expected with the west pushing hard to get in and the east winning in the short term.

I expect the GFS to backtrack hour by hour as the days go by with FI in the gfs pretty much at +72

I agree there, It's absoulute manic in the thred , not even gonna comment tonight now it gets lost in the blink of an eye , but for what it's worth Iv stuck my neck out and said how I'm convinced the 18z got it very very wrong, it does this year after year, it's amazing at picking up initial trends but then has a tendency to drop it as it moves closer then picks it back up at the last minute, every one today it's churned out has been more or less mild outliers and its rather pathetic that it does this , given its supposed status .

If I'm wrong il hold my hands up but with cross model agreement elsewhere regarding a cold and snowy spell into next wk , especially the ECM along with complete support from the ens , leads me to shake my head and reject the gfs 18z , we always pray for a Stella run from the 18z , why ? Because its eye candy and nothing more , would love to see the verification status on the 18z.

[TwisterGirl81]

Hi I keep hearing people talk about keeping an eye on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday weather?! I'm confused as on the new weather charts on Monday there doesn't appear to be any precipitation on those days apart from the far southeast?

There's people talking about huge snowfalls in the southwest that we've not seen for decades...am I on another planet and missing something?

Ill look forward to any replies...

I'm a newbie by the way so I'm still learning on charts etc

[Beast of Plympton]

Hi I keep hearing people talk about keeping an eye on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday weather?! I'm confused as on the new weather charts on Monday there doesn't appear to be any precipitation on those days apart from the far southeast?

There's people talking about huge snowfalls in the southwest that we've not seen for decades...am I on another planet and missing something?

Ill look forward to any replies...

I'm a newbie by the way so I'm still learning on charts etc

I am by no means an expert, and I am new! But from what I am reading its the GFS that is being stubborn and not falling in line with the other models.

So, I think the historical event people are discussing is from the other models such as the ECM.

Ian

[AWD]

Hi I keep hearing people talk about keeping an eye on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday weather?! I'm confused as on the new weather charts on Monday there doesn't appear to be any precipitation on those days apart from the far southeast?

There's people talking about huge snowfalls in the southwest that we've not seen for decades...am I on another planet and missing something?

Ill look forward to any replies...

I'm a newbie by the way so I'm still learning on charts etc

Some models show snow, some don't. Keep an eye on it as it could provide a snow event or it could provide nothing at all.

For now, we have Saturday & Sunday to focus on.

[Lynxus]

Hi I keep hearing people talk about keeping an eye on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday weather?! I'm confused as on the new weather charts on Monday there doesn't appear to be any precipitation on those days apart from the far southeast?

There's people talking about huge snowfalls in the southwest that we've not seen for decades...am I on another planet and missing something?

Ill look forward to any replies...

I'm a newbie by the way so I'm still learning on charts etc

Hmm..

Yeah, Not much is showing on the GFS. However I think people are reffering to the other models that show an LP to our south. This "should" bring up some PPn with it.

If that happens our not...... Well.. Who knows. I doubt we could say what is going to happen friday at the moment with any confidence

[TwisterGirl81]

Ah thanks guys, I feel bad but I'd like a huge blizzard!! Please southwest weather don't let the rain win....we have had enough rain!!!

[A.J]

I'm seeking solace here amongst the sane folk of this fine thread, as the MOD has done my head in tonight!

[Beast of Plympton]

Ah thanks guys, I feel bad but I'd like a huge blizzard!! Please southwest weather don't let the rain win....we have had enough rain!!!

Amen to that!!

I'm seeking solace here amongst the sane folk of this fine thread, as the MOD has done my head in tonight!

Solace granted sir.

[Lynxus]

I'm seeking solace here amongst the sane folk of this fine thread, as the MOD has done my head in tonight!

Cough.. Sane... Cough...

You have been here before right?

[cornish snow]

David Braine for BBC Spotlight has even said wintriness other than the moors this weekend too. Quite a positive outlook for some sleet/snow this weekend for sure.

So do you think us at the end of the line ,might get lucky this time?

Cant say ia'm that confident to be honest.Same old cold rain .