Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).

[Jason H]

1. http://modeles.meteo...fs-2-120.png?18
   

Watch that bowling ball of ppn to the NW of scotland- should sink across us as snow-

S

And heavy snow in the East ongoing.

[Jason M]

Another brilliant run.

Hats off to GFS as the differences at day 5 are so tiny as to be negligable. As Steve mentions, when that shortwave drops south it will be carnage :-)

Jason

[Bristawl Si]

You can hardly fit a piece of tracing paper between this run and the previous. Great consistency when we need it!

Chiono - do u think UKMO may be slightly 'behind' in their thoughts for the weekend?

[Cloud 10]

You can hardly fit a piece of tracing paper between this run and the previous. Great consistency when we need it!

The vortex splits a bit sooner on this run.

[EML Network]

There's little point in looking at the details currently, the main thing is that this is yet another run following the same lines....no SW drama's...just nice and easy and steady as she goes.

Once we get into Thursday...if things still look the same on the models, only then can we have a better idea of who and where is most likely to get lucky ...and even then..it usually comes down to radar watching and hoping that the dew points are low enough to support snowfall that would settle

The best days model watching I have ever seen (I only started doing this religiously 12 - 18 months ago)

This will do just nicely ...for now the whole UK under the cold air...and you know what they say...get the cold air in first and the snow has a better chance of following

Edited January 8, 2013 by EML Network

[Harsh Climate]

Oooooo could that deepening low near svalbard be a spoiler????

Wasn't there on the 12z

Edited January 8, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[nick sussex]

Some very cold night time temps possible under the slack northerly flow. Helped by hopefully some snow on the ground!

Very solid continuity from the GFS which is good to see.

[Met4Cast]

Oooooo could that deepening low near svalbard be a spoiler????

Wasn't there on the 12z

That low looks like it'll head South to me, the block is strengthening

[karlos1983]

Oooooo could that deepening low near svalbard be a spoiler????

Wasn't there on the 12z

Beat me to it,my thoughts exactly

[MisfitDog3]

Very good charts but greatest evidence something is happening is that 9.55pm Weatherview on BBC News bottled it on the Friday....obviously weekend is causing them to think?

[chionomaniac]

Chiono - do u think UKMO may be slightly 'behind' in their thoughts for the weekend?

I wouldn't dare speculate. Certainly if the solution is as it is forecast now then the GFS has been ahead.

[snowblues]

At T132 atlantic high is starting to make a push up towards Greenland area.

Edited January 8, 2013 by snowblues

[Alex]

Not much has been said about the other variables so lets take a step back and have a look at some other drivers of our atmosphere,

1) MJO - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

We are moving fast into phase 6, this suggests blocking to our west/northwest with a trough to the east.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO/JanuaryPhase6500mb.gif

2) angular momentum is rising - at this stage this would support blocking

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/gltotaam.sig.90day.gif

Alot has been said about the stratospheric warming recently, but the current highly variable models isn't helped by the fast moving MJO and rapidly rising angular momentum.

My conclusion is that we are likely to see quite possibly the most prolonged cold spell this winter, however the stability of these variable will help determine the strength of the blocking in place. Keep an eye out!

[Jayces]

Why is this?

Is it the influence of the jet stream?

Well as others have said it's too far out to be that worried about but on this run the cold doesn't reach as far west (we are talking I dunno a hundred miles or so I think) and therefore the air is warmer.

Looking at the last 4 runs though from the GFS for the same day 1pm on Saturday the 0z had rain for the whole of England as did the 6z and then the 12z had all snow and now the 18z has rain to snow so you can see the futility of looking at precipitation type this far out, I just wanted to get involved -)

[BarometerBunts]

Have just finished explaining to my husband my "Harry Met Sally" moment sat at my desk. Worth all the tears and tantrums and pages of despair. Would go through it all again if this comes off. Once again, kudos to Chio, GP and all NW experts for their anaysis, and to the mods for their patience. Guess we have to just hope that the models continue this trend with little, if any backtrack - wow!

[snowice]

Another great run still on?

[MR EXTREMES]

Ian F's weather update. The last minute is worth the watch for the entire UK, such an excellent forecast, professional as you're going to get,

http://news.bbc.co.u...000/7760862.stm

im sorry mods but i really do think u show change your caption in your posts i feel GP has done the best he can with the tools he has.

[BARRY]

the front is sitting right on top devon at 141z could be a major snow event if it is right

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Snowy shortwave from Iceland area there like on ecmwf

[essexweather]

New fax chart for Saturday at midday: http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVM89.TIF

A lot of snow for some :o

[Cloud 10]

The 96 hrs fax has updated.

I am pleased.

[dhillcrest]

Down to 73 users. We broke the internet!!!!

[Met4Cast]

The GFS tries its very hardest to bring the Atlantic through the block but it has failed, energy finally realised the only way to go was South.

Cracking Low Res FI coming up!

[ChartViewer]

CMA 216 Nice

[Paul]

Sorry for the downtime, a corruption on the database crashed the servers out..