Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

06z is a stormer and 180 to 220 will look better than the 00z with stronger ridge from GHP I reckon

BFTP

[tonbridgemole]

GFS at 144hrs Snow for the midlands and then south east...Bring it on!!

Edited January 8, 2013 by tonbridgemole

[snowbob]

Well despite the 0Z being colder than the ensemble mean the 06Z is going to be better!!

Anyone who moans about the 06Z needs to be shot.

unless they work outside like me lol

Bring it on

Edited January 8, 2013 by snowbob

[bradymk]

Looking at 6z run, a good run once again, different to ECM once more and it has a west/east split with the east holding onto the lowest uppers so any snow potential highest here

Edited January 8, 2013 by bradythemole

[latitude]

Very nice

Lots of snow events possible on the 06z, and maybe a dumping in the SW.

Edited January 8, 2013 by latitude

[Southender]

Pure FI cold and snow porn so far from the 6z.

[Supercell 89]

I know runs are likely to change but this feature keeps showing up for Tuesday, some potential for the eastern side of the country if it vertifies

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1561.png

Looking forward to some more seasonal temperatures over the next few days and hopefully if we are lucky a cheeky bit of snow Will be interesting to see how the rest of this month pans out.

[bradymk]

Very nice

Looks similar to UKMO guidance yesterday for battleground setups.

[weather eater]

O6Z looks very messy in the short to medium term the -5 isotherm seems to keep the far SE in colder uppers right through.

Looks pretty similar to the last couple of GFS runs to me SI, seems to me that the GFS is starting to show some consistency with itself, even if we have no agreement between the models. For me to buy into the ECM over the GFS then the ECM must start to show some consistency of output, at the moment that’s not happening. Looking into FI now and the GFS is showing remarkable consistency.

Edited January 8, 2013 by weather eater

[UV-RAY]

At +264 -5 uppers all the way across Ireland, a long way off but that's what really need too see if we want a sustained block for the UK.

[TEITS]

I couldn't draw a better chart.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2521.png

That is as good as it can possibly get for the UK. This would cripple the UK and would make the Dec 2009, 2010 cold spells look pathetic with regards to snowfall amounts!

[latitude]

Bang

[Tim Bland]

I think we can expect to see the GFS fall into line with lower heights towards Greenland with the Azores High ridging across us over it’s subsequent runs today.

The METO may choose to continue to stress the uncertainty today before switching their outlooks to mild and wetter tomorrow, with the associated flooding issues that that is going to bring.

Good luck with that Ian!

06Z if anything is an upgrade on the 00z with better heaighs over Greenland. Whilst ECM is flip flopping and Ens are a mess the GFS is remaining fairly bullish about next week. Although I conceed that no model is showing great consistency the GFS solution has more backing from the likes of GEM / JMA / BOM and our new friend the CMA. ECM looks like its signing its own song and I expect it to be better this evening

[ChartViewer]

CMA216 pretty much like GFS06z..if slightly earlier timeframe

Edited January 8, 2013 by ChartViewer

[Supercell 89]

Holy snow balls! just seen the rest of the 06z on the GFS, very nice

[UV-RAY]

Looks pretty similar to the last couple of GFS runs to me SI, seems to me that the GFS is starting to show some consistency with itself even if we have no agreement between the models. For me to buy into the ECM over the GFS then the ECM must start to show some consistency of output at the moment that’s not happening. Looking into FI now and the GFS is showing remarkable consistency.

Agree it has been messy for quite a few runs now, from a selfish point of view those of in the West will have to wait a wee while longer before see something wintry, although there is still plenty of time for upgrades.

[Methuselah]

Unfortunately, particularly for the toy department, after a stonker of a run like the 06Z, I fear that the only way is down?

There could be a lot of moderators fielding at silly point, this afternoon!

[Paul Sherman]

Bang

Exactly why I said Patience! 19-21st Imho is when the real Interest starts to show!

Will it play out like that - Absolutely Not! But some interesting weather upcoming 2nd half of January!

Edited January 8, 2013 by Paul Sherman

[Weathizard]

I couldn't draw a better chart.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2521.png

That is as good as it can possibly get for the UK. This would cripple the UK and would make the Dec 2009, 2010 cold spells look pathetic with regards to snowfall amounts!

Indeed TEITS, stunning charts, the 18z and 06z have both gone down similar ish routes after 168 and even the 00z although not as good, had similar sypnotics just didnt fall into place. Hopefully we can get other models on board and crucially the ECM needs to change its mind.

[Radiating Dendrite]

WOW!

don't think I need to add anything to that.

(some mid term consistency from the GFS)

[Bristawl Si]

CMA216 pretty much like GFS06z..if slightly earlier timeframe

Anyone order a Chinese?! LOL!!

[UV-RAY]

Unfortunately, particularly for the toy department, after a stonker of a run like the 06Z, I fear that the only way is down?

There could be a lot of moderators fielding at silly point, this afternoon!

Howzat?

[Anti-Mild]

At +288 we have -10hPa covering the whole of the British Isles, with the -15 not far off the east coast. Snow lovers nirvana, even if it is FI.

However, the trend for increased heights over Iceland/Greenland in the medium to long term continues.

[Gowon]

If you want some more good news have a look at shuttlers post in the strat thread.

[Jonan92]

WOW!