Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards

[latitude]

Sorry Latitude but not one mention of SSW in Paul Shermans post that i can see. The models as he says correctly point to a cooler time from this weekend, but the real interest is the 2nd half of January.

Nothing of any real interest for the coldy fans from the models just yet, but if it's a slight frost that floats your boat, then be my guest and jump up and down excitedly

Yes....but what is causing the interest in the second half of Jan into Feb.........the SSW!!!!!

[Dexter29]

Everyone is so preoccupied with the medium range nobody has mentioned the 06Z is suggesting snow on Sunday spreading SE from the NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1261.png

This is all I'm looking at right now. Potential is definetely there. I'll be in Boston Lincs on Sunday so hopefully better potential than here in Essex.

Members keep saying this weekend is a 'bonus'

They need to be careful what they wish for, if their FI cold weather doesn't materialise they will be wishing this weekend did!

[snowking]

I know the why... It's simply to drive us nuts....

There are differing inputs in the 32 dayer etc, info gathered over a greater time span etc, equals differing variable outputs...

As far as I know the ECM32 is initialised from the 0z run too (as in 0z the day before, so yesterday's update came from data from midnight Sunday Night into Monday). It's only since then that the ECM det (note det and not ens) have started changing, so IF there is a new correct signal being picked up by the last 3 ECM det runs, then the EC32 will not have picked them up...that is making a huge assumption though with very little evidence so far that ANY current modelling is right

SK

[Weathizard]

138 GFS

144 ECM

GFS has the azores heights further east but key I think for medium term 'flattening' its better as the azores high stops connecting with the high ridging east from US

[Methuselah]

Something must be going on clicking through the start of the GFS 06z run and its gone psychedelic, at least for one frame.

That's the LSD model?

[NL]

That's the LSD model?

Acid rain?

[tight isobar]

Good morning. Ithink its now a safe bet to suggest in short/mid term it will most likely be a halfway house between the ecm/gfs, output with at least a cold shot of sorts, with some seeing some point, over the coming 6/8 days.in the longer term,its even more unsure, However, the continues to be growing signs of heights at Greenland, and a block becoming established, before months end....with perhaps quite dramatic, outcomes. Some faboulous output viewing in the near coming imo.

[ChartViewer]

CMA192

[cyclonic happiness]

Everyone is so preoccupied with the medium range nobody has mentioned the 06Z is suggesting snow on Sunday spreading SE from the NW.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1261.png

I've just had chance to look and there's snow showing for the Midlands both on Saturday night at 7pm and Sunday night at 7pm, I couldn't give a hoot about the rest of the charts so long as it keeps showing.

FI is very, very nice looking though, but I'm gonna ignore it and concentrate on the snow possibilities, after all, isn't that what most of us are in here for, not the long run?

[Weathizard]

CMA192

I like this model.

[AWD]

Sorry Latitude but not one mention of SSW in Paul Shermans post that i can see. The models as he says correctly point to a cooler time from this weekend, but the real interest is the 2nd half of January.

Nothing of any real interest for the coldy fans from the models just yet, but if it's a slight frost that floats your boat, then be my guest and jump up and down excitedly

??

[Southender]

Look at the PV on the 6z run. It is destroyed and early on as well. Could be another decent run coming up here...

[johnholmes]

as promised my review of the 500mb anomaly charts for this year, copied also into the technical thread where it may be easier to find later today!

Changes in the 500mb anomaly charts-teu 8 jan 12.pdf

[Paul]

As far as I know the ECM32 is initialised from the 0z run too (as in 0z the day before, so yesterday's update came from data from midnight Sunday Night into Monday). It's only since then that the ECM det (note det and not ens) have started changing, so IF there is a new correct signal being picked up by the last 3 ECM det runs, then the EC32 will not have picked them up...that is making a huge assumption though with very little evidence so far that ANY current modelling is right

SK

It's initialised from their ensemble suite, and then has oceanic elements added after the 10 day period

http://www.ecmwf.int/research/monthly_forecasting/Introduction.html

[Rocheydub]

I see the Irish Sea snow blocker is working well....

Interestingly though, the vortex is breaking much earlier on this run. Eye candy alert for later frames.

[Weathizard]

Laughable difference 7 days out, although looking closer, the biggest difference is the Low to our west:

Atlantic low being stronger is actually a good thing here because its forcing warm wair north and the SW's over us seem like they are stopping the high from toppling! Good shortwaves for once?

Edited January 8, 2013 by Weathizard

[TEITS]

This is turning into a very good run especially for those in the E.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1501.png

More snow spreading SE although W parts would see rain as the E remains cold throughout so far on this run.

[Methuselah]

Any time between Sunday and Tuesday looks quite good for marginal snow-events to occur, to me. After that, though, who knows?

[UV-RAY]

O6Z looks very messy in the short to medium term the -5 isotherm seems to keep the far SE in colder uppers right through.

[bobbydog]

Everyone is so preoccupied with the medium range nobody has mentioned the 06Z is suggesting snow on Sunday spreading SE from the NW.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1261.png

lets not let the facts get in the way of a good argument eh!

[UV-RAY]

This is turning into a very good run especially for those in the E.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1501.png

More snow spreading SE although W parts would see rain as the E remains cold throughout so far on this run.

Yes unfortunately from an IMBY perspective more rain on the cards, looks good for the East and SE like you say. Edited January 8, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[ChartViewer]

as promised my review of the 500mb anomaly charts for this year, copied also into the technical thread where it may be easier to find later today!

Changes in the 500mb anomaly charts-teu 8 jan 12.pdf

Many thanks John....very interesting differences between ecm/gfs blocking anomalies there. Will be very interesting what the NOAA anomaly charts show tonight as well.

[Carl46Wrexham]

This is turning into a very good run especially for those in the E.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1501.png

More snow spreading SE although W parts would see rain as the E remains cold throughout so far on this run.

Oh great....just what we DON'T want or need. More bloody rain...we haven't dried out yet from the hateful rains of 2012.

[Weathizard]

Good consistency from the GFS out to 192, SOLID. Big potential for battleground snow. 216 not a bad chart eh.

[TEITS]

Well despite the 0Z being colder than the ensemble mean the 06Z is going to be better!!

Anyone who moans about the 06Z needs to be shot.