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Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards


reef

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

ECM is probably on the money - has been thus far so my gut feeling is don't get too excited about cold prospect as next week will probably be a 2 dayer cold blip at best before the Atlantic charges back through. Hope I'm wrong, really do but hey the express has gone for the next ice age which usually = mild mush a certainty! Lets hope the strat warming is bashing the nuts out of the ECM algorithms and the colder outputs are on the money smile.png. As always MORE RUNS NEEDED!

It has not been though.

Remember the easterly in December it showed? No.........because it did not happen.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

When I get time this morning I am going to have a very close look at how the anomaly charts have shown the predicted upper air pattern over the past 2-3 days. I have to say there is not the consistency in the past 2 runs from ECMWF-GFS, wel especially the ECMWF version, that I like to see to give me confidence in what they are forecasting. Its probable that my subsequent post will not be the most popular with cold lovers but better to be frank with folk, anyway I will have a good look before I post as it is possible I am not reading them correctly.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Very latest UKMO guidance just issued goes for the cold/v cold story predominanting into next week with potential sequence of battleground set-ups of snow to rain and back again in W/SW ; heavy snow potentially in any region; perhaps with a temporary relaxation of pattern but return of cold thereafter (MOGREPS keeping a N'rly well into 10-15d trend period).

That's excellent news, hopefully we can consign the ecm 00z to the wheely bin where it belongsbiggrin.png

My concern with the ecm is 2 runs in a row now where we end up with a sw/ne pattern returning after a couple of cold days (albeit delayed on the 00z), the gfs 00z is a mega cold and snowy run in FI which would make the second half of january a memorable period to be cherished by coldies in years to come.

post-4783-0-65952600-1357634756_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire

Some shocking ensembles for cold on the 00z this morning, we may as well write off winter:

Personally i find this model watching at its very best

drinks.gif

gens-3-0-384.png?0

gens-3-1-384.png?0

Edited by Nick JB
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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

UKMO just accept GM at face value for weekend, pointing out that with near-record Shannon entropy, any model could frankly be correct or wholly wrong, hence raw GM might as well be accepted for now. They suspect block short-lived in any event, ie the milder recovery then evolving as suggested in various recent runs. Haven't yet had sight of new assessment based on 00z runs for period onwards beyond weekend. Will get that towards 11am.

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Posted
  • Location: The Sexy South
  • Weather Preferences: Fresh n Funky
  • Location: The Sexy South

Thanks for that. Will be interesting to see the METO do a MASSIVE 'U' turn on the previous update we have had......

Very latest UKMO guidance just issued goes for the cold/v cold story predominanting into next week with potential sequence of battleground set-ups of snow to rain and back again in W/SW ; heavy snow potentially in any region; perhaps with a temporary relaxation of pattern but return of cold thereafter (MOGREPS keeping a N'rly well into 10-15d trend period).

Thanks for the update latitude, sounds very promising. Where do you get your meto information from though? Is it something publicly accessible or insider knowledge? On a side note I'd like it if there were a netweather member called longitude so the two of you could constantly be working at cross-purposes LOL

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Posted
  • Location: swanley nw kent
  • Location: swanley nw kent

Looking to the start of this incoming cold spell,my eyes have been on the low developments off NE Canada and how it evolves.Last nights run by T153 let some advection in to Greenland giving more to play with.

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Posted
  • Location: East Anglia
  • Location: East Anglia

Actually if you have been following the runs closely over the last few days the thing of note this morning is that the ECM has moved substantially towards the GFS in the pre 144hr range. What happens mid range and into FI, is the GFS lifts heights and removes the PV lobe from Greenland and the ECM does not, with so much to be decided before then it’s really not worth bothering about as there is no clear trend yet, and Ian if the GFS is better than the ECM with modelling over Greenland then surely your inclination should be to go along with the GFS.

I also thought I’d logged onto the wrong website this morning as I thought the 00z GFS was a pretty good follow up to last night’s 18z much better than I expected, as it was never going to be the same or quite as good, maybe the late night commentators would do better to either go to bed or get on with their work and look with fresh eyes later.

Edited by weather eater
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

Going back to the +120 period and the ensembles in my locale say it all really.

http://cdn.nwstatic....bridgeshire.png

As you can see some difference in upper temps between 13th & 15th which could have significance with regards to the SW tracking SE and possible snow showers from the E.

Personally I feel we should concentrate more on this period than +240. Speaking of which I have now viewed the GFS FI charts and blimey they are extreme even for me. I would be snowed in if that run would occur!

Edited by THE EYE IN THE SKY
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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

Thanks for the info Ian, I'm liking the bold bits, living in the Cotswolds that sounds great.

Yeah, but bear in mind last night's update was based on their 12z analysis. I'm unconvinced it'll be of similar tone when re-written for issue later this morning, but we shall see. Matt H has spelled-out the key issues...

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

I refer you to Ian Fergie's post last night.....There really is no 'sudden collapse' or game over situation. BFTP

Indeed, but we still need the NAO on our side Fred and I believe we will see this turn negative later in the month.
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Posted
  • Location: The Sexy South
  • Weather Preferences: Fresh n Funky
  • Location: The Sexy South

Some shocking ensembles for cold on the 00z this morning, we may as well write off winter:

Personally i find this model watching at its very best

drinks.gif

gens-3-0-384.png?0

gens-3-1-384.png?0

These are terrible charts! The uppers just aren't cold enough for snow and the all the cold remains stuck in Europe!!! Shocking charts for cold lovers, it just makes me so mad I want to throw teddy out of the pram, WAHHHH!!! LOL

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Just a quick one...

EC Det and Control both mild outliers with a greater portion of the EC ENS members keeping colder air (near -5C 850mb temps) over the UK for longer into next week.

However, there are a growing number of EC ENS members which support the broader EC pattern to have low pressure dominant over Greenland or to the NW of the UK rather than higher pressure and this, as a result, means that more of an Atlantic flow arrives anyway, it's just delayed. The longer term (288hr) and beyond is still a right'ol mess from anything from a serious NE'ly outbreak to mild SW'lies, so none the wiser long term.

It's finely balance right now and something will soon 'tip' either towards the EC solution, or the EC will come on board with the GFS for example and support more blocking to the NW, but for now, that is looking less likely.

Matt.

To highlight this Matt.

ECM op T+192 850 temps

post-4523-0-93244500-1357635542_thumb.gi

ECM mean 850s T+192

post-4523-0-57356700-1357635581_thumb.gi

The ensembles far more favourable and at that range probably better guidance.

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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset
  • Location: North Somerset

Thanks for the update latitude, sounds very promising. Where do you get your meto information from though? Is it something publicly accessible or insider knowledge? On a side note I'd like it if there were a netweather member called longitude so the two of you could constantly be working at cross-purposes LOL

Nothing to do with me, just quoting a post from our very valued member Ian F from the BBC/METO

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

Thanks for the update latitude, sounds very promising. Where do you get your meto information from though? Is it something publicly accessible or insider knowledge? On a side note I'd like it if there were a netweather member called longitude so the two of you could constantly be working at cross-purposes LOL

He was quoting an earlier post from Ian Fergusson.

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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset
  • Location: North Somerset

Yeah, but bear in mind last night's update was based on their 12z analysis. I'm unconvinced it'll be of similar tone when re-written for issue later this morning, but we shall see. Matt H has spelled-out the key issues...

Maybe there will be a METO 'U' turn on last nights update. Funny how there was some confidence in the pattern going forward last night only to change again hours later. Weather forecasting is a pain in the a**.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

Just add this.

"Latest interpretation of the most recent update of the ECMWF long range forecast model.

After a mild week the cold will start to slowly push into the East later next week and possibly lock in through early Feb.

The model projected upper level pattern shows significant blocking over Greenland later this month and into early February which forces cold air into the East with a potential coastal storm track. A drier, milder pattern for BC and the Pacific Northwest at the end of Jan."

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/long-range-forecast-model-sends-cold-into-the-east/3754875

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Yeah, but bear in mind last night's update was based on their 12z analysis. I'm unconvinced it'll be of similar tone when re-written for issue later this morning, but we shall see. Matt H has spelled-out the key issues...

Ian

Then what has changed? And what would suggest that overnights are better/more accurate than 12's? With such volatility, maybe there shouldn't be any changes for a couple of days in outlook

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I think given the chaotic state of the ECM postage stamps its best to not read too much into the output for next week:

http://www.ecmwf.int...t!2009112700!!/

Also there is expected to be some changes in the USA so this will feed down into Europe, this from the NOAA state forecast for Michigan:

WEEK TWO OUTLOOK

(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

WINTER COMES BACK TO THE AREA. IT IS LOOKING MORE CERTAIN NOW THAT

THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE DOING SOME READJUSTING AND THE

LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND TO

THE TO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND CENTRAL CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF

THE FOLLOWING WEEK. IT WOULD SEEMS THE PERIOD FROM WED-SUN MAY BE

THE COLDEST OF THE WINTER SO FAR (NOT TO HARD TO DO THIS WINTER). I

COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE TEENS LATE IN THE WEEK. ALSO SOME LAKE

EFFECT SNOW SEEMS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AS THERE IS NORTHWEST

WINDS WITH 850 MB TEMPS BELOW -20C DURING THAT TIME.

Just to add to Daves post re America, a costal storm track there and possible nor'easters does not happen with a flat upstream pattern, you need a dig south of the jet over there which correlates with rising pressure to its east ie Greenland.

We'll see, at the moment the models are doing their best to leave us very much in the dark! theres not even agreement for the weekend which I think sums things up!

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs

I refer you to Ian Fergie's post last night.....There really is no 'sudden collapse' or game over situation. BFTP

We will see Fred - it already happened twice this winter where the NWP has picked something up and all of a sudden it's a quick collapse and volte face from the METO in their outlooks.

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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

Ian

Then what has changed? And what would suggest that overnights are better/more accurate than 12's? With such volatility, maybe there shouldn't be any changes for a couple of days in outlook

BFTP

I haven't said it has changed: don't know yet!

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Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire

12z yesterday METO analysis is for backing cold, based on 0z its suggested backing off the cold and favouring milder evolution.

Don't get me wrong this is not a criticism but if the professionals are changing what they favour in the space of 12 hours data then you can see why lesser knowledgeable people react to each run.

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

Anyway, i think the upcoming GFS run will help in the short to medium term as the differences in mid atlantic ridging are evident between GFS and ECM very early on.

Personally I'm still happy with the output this morning, but things can change. Incidentally, when do all the models agree on the output at days 6/7/8? Unless were in a straightfoward zonal pattern this would be as rare as hens teeth.

Jason

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

I think given the chaotic state of the ECM postage stamps its best to not read too much into the output for next week:

http://www.ecmwf.int...t!2009112700!!/

Also there is expected to be a some changes in the USA so this will feed down into Europe, this from the NOAA state forecast for Michigan:

WEEK TWO OUTLOOK

(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

WINTER COMES BACK TO THE AREA. IT IS LOOKING MORE CERTAIN NOW THAT

THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE DOING SOME READJUSTING AND THE

LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND TO

THE TO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND CENTRAL CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF

THE FOLLOWING WEEK. IT WOULD SEEMS THE PERIOD FROM WED-SUN MAY BE

THE COLDEST OF THE WINTER SO FAR (NOT TO HARD TO DO THIS WINTER). I

COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE TEENS LATE IN THE WEEK. ALSO SOME LAKE

EFFECT SNOW SEEMS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AS THERE IS NORTHWEST

WINDS WITH 850 MB TEMPS BELOW -20C DURING THAT TIME.

Looking at the clusters one could understand why if you were having to make a judgement call, you would have to go with the Op.

Too much variance I suspect to put any emphasis on any probability.

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