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reef

Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards

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I just phoned Piers..........he said FEET of snow, not inches...FEET

BFTP

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I'm as shocked as everyone in here, the 12z ECM is truly the best setup we have seen for a very long time for severe cold and (eventually) Blocking establishing over Greenland.

BUT, I'm just taking it as another model run at least for now.

Now awaits the 18z GFS.

Lets get ready for that!

SM

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We've not seen snow since Jan '10 I don't think and you guys get bucketfuls

Not in Lancashire we don't unless you live in the Pennine areas, anyway I'm just glad to see the back end of all the weeks rain we've had and are still having.
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David Brain on spotlight a minute ago no mention of cold next week . Just a bit colder over the weekend with rain .

mind you,this is cornwall afterall. Dont want the palm trees getting snowed on.

BBC South showing temps of 8c and rain throughout Saturday. I know that they would not have updated their forecast with regard the latest models but not even a hint of anything colder did they mention! (unlike our Ian in the West who at least alluded to it).

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Just wanted to thank all the posters in here for a fantastic evening's model watching - whatever happens in reality, it's been a blast - from tears, through hysteria, to euphoria - Steve Murr is happy again - Ian Brown (of all people!) gave me the best laugh I've had all week and proves he is a top bloke after all - couldn't get much better really!

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Not sure if I'll be able to handle looking in here tommorrow!

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Matthew Hugoâ€@MattHugo81

Now the 'big 3' (UKMO, ECM, GFS) are showing a similar model evolution the next thing needed is consistency for this trend...

Pretty much what the regulars on here are saying. Please dear Lord let there be a consistency for this trend now. Amen

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I just phoned Piers..........he said FEET of snow, not inches...FEET

BFTP

A possibility for the SW in the next few weeks Fred.

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More runs needed I hear lol, I think we will all be saying that down to T+12 after last month.

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Rancid weather coming up it seems, I hate this country.

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Yes I know and the poster was referring to Monday I thought with regards to the LP sinking SE.

Shame the ECM doesn't go any further because it would get even colder from the NE!

the poster has experience of living in south west with its own micro climate of being surrounded by warm water s on three sides...very often cold snowy set ups here end as rain/sleet where other places would get snow.

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A stonking end to a stonking run from the ECM this evening.

From zero to hero!

That is a HUGE about-turn compared to yesterday's 12z run

today.. yesterday..

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I have never seen such a difference @ 168hrs on the ECM! ABSOLUTELY NUTS!

The ECM @ 00z:

ecmt850.168.png

Compared to 12z:

ecmt850.168.png

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I hate to ask but from a selfish IMBY point of view should I get remotely excited for us in the west of Ireland??

If not enjoy your cold spell those who will get itgood.gif

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Checking over the other forecast sites fo my area of Watford, the 'weatheroutlook' is the only one to have snow for Saturday evening - suspect we have a forecaster's nightmare in the offing.

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I'm excited for everyone, but it seems myself in Blackpool will be stuck with frost and ice - as is the case with this set-up. I hope we can get a raging Northerly out of this a la Novemeber/December 2010, whereby we had an intense NE/E for a while, which destroyed the East of the UK and Ireland, followed by that unforgettable Northerly which left much of the UK completely white!

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Omg, Just seen the charts, Looks like we may get up to 50 ostriches of snow!

.. On a more serious note.

I'm really happy that the GFS is showing what it is. I've said it before and I will say again.

I always felt that the GFS is very westerly driven. So for it to show a good chance of easterly control, then it must have some strong data showing this.

Fingers crossed yall

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Don't be totally surprised if this agreement disappears over the next 12hours - that seems to be what the models love to do at the moment.

However, I would love (not like, LOVE) to be proved wrong and if indeed I am (and we have an improved set of ECM and GFS ens tonight and tomorrow) then I would justifiably start to get a TAD excited. But its TOO early for the level-headed out there. TOO EARLY YET.

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Can't help but urge caution in terms of expectation! It seems to me that every few runs ppl are going from utter despair to unapologetic jubilance. Cold would very much need to become firmly entrenched before sustained or regular snow events could be considered. I tend to follow Simon Keeling as he seems to be fairly spot on and presents well backed up and unbiased forecasts. At present he's opting for a brief cold incursion over the weekend and then a trend to (and I stress) cooler period with interludes of cold and mild till mid Feb! Now before members jump down my throat about not being able to reliably predict past 72hrs out, I actually agree, but Mr Keeling watches trends and he's been pretty much spot on this winter (as was he last winter).

BTW I too badly would love snow and prolonged cold but I'm a realist and rather than go into a deep depression oe becoming elated with every model run, I weigh up potential based on output and expert analysis!

ALL The big 3 ukmo ecm gfs only 4days to go thats the difference!

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Interesting to note that the ECM hasn't really backtracked in the traditional sense, ie its not been showing mild for five days in a row and suddenly changed, it has simply reverted to the evolution it was showing about 4 runs back which at the time had a good deal of ensemble support.

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You live on the lizard peninsula? Must be hard pushed to get snow there unless its an exceptional month like Dec 2010.

Naw, they got plenty in 1963 and on the Scilly Isles as well.

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I hate to ask but from a selfish IMBY point of view should I get remotely excited for us in the west of Ireland??

If not enjoy your cold spell those who will get itgood.gif

NO!rofl.gif

You never know in these kind of set ups if any fronts from Atlantic stall over your area, then yes copious amounts. I think anyone is at risk of snow in the next 7 days.

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Just watched the weather forecast on Irish TV (they use the ECM for their forecasts). They're still going for westerlies next week! They obviously haven't seen the latest output! :D

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