Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards

[ribster]

Haven't been in for a while, for fear of being struck by a flying dummy. Looks like it's been said, although not a done deal, the ECM seems to be smelling the coffee!

[Snowly does it]

OK, weekend looking nailed on 'interesting', however there is still much to be decided about the situation next week. There are hurdles to clear before at cold air starts to lock in over us, and the ensembles from GFS show some of the problems.

The last thing I want to be is a party pooper but don't forget we are probably more likely at the summit ignoring the precipice than In the pits staring at the stars.

Enjoy the snow this weekend and fingers crossed for the war to develop in our favour next week.

[nick sussex]

Nick we have yet to see the Chinese model tonight.....until that comes on board im hesitant to get excited.

Lol! I'm getting worried about you, you're obsessed with that Chinese model!

That ECM 168hrs has got me all light headed I need to go and lie down!

[kumquat]

Perhaps a small ramp from Ian F on Points West in a few minutes???

[DanDorsetUK]

Time to warn my Gran! Think of the older people if this hits! Seriously impressive charts, Not seen this for some time!

[cfallon]

https://mobile.twitter.com/fergieweather/status/288698984292306944

Ian ferguson thoughts!

Edited January 8, 2013 by cfallon

[SnowBallz]

192hrs:

Cor blimey

[Zenarcher]

This pretty much sums up the ECM,

168 chart excellent

This means we have the main three models ECM GFS UKMO agreeing on something good here.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Perhaps a small ramp from Ian F on Points West in a few minutes???

I've changed to watch him.......fingers crossed

BFTP

[Paul_1978]

Matt Hugo reins us in on Twitter with a note if caution:

@MattHugo81: The bigger picture (GFS ENS) paint a much milder scenario! http://t.co/eW1tkQu5 | 2 cold model runs doesn't automatically mean cold weather.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Time to warn my Gran! Think of the older people if this hits! Seriously impressive charts, Not seen this for some time!

We have....beginning of December 2012. I'm as excited as everyone on here as these charts will produce the goods for most of us on here. However I will be very nervous when viewing future runs as they will be hard to get any better.

[cfallon]

Matt Hugo on twitter

The bigger picture (GFS ENS) paint a much milder scenario! meteociel.com/cartes_obs/gen… | 2 cold model runs doesn't automatically mean cold weather.

[Ian Brown]

Given the inconsistency of the ECM I think we should at least wait until tomorrow morning's run confirms this before we get shovels ready. That is if the GFS or the UKMO haven't already done a runner on the idea of cold heading our way.

There seems to be a split flow in the ECM that leads to heights being able to build NW rather than having the Northerly LP break through but I've never seen such a volte face from the ECM.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel...H1-192.GIF?08-0

THe 192 chart shows the high which is centred over ICELAND--- = EAST based NAO allowing another cold wave to attack from the NE-

216 & 240 are already banked for cold... great run

I urge people to look at western greenland tip at 120 144 168 & see how the 2 lows get smashed apart just like 2010 nov 21st-

its a VERY VERY big step tonight starting at just 72....

S

Edited January 8, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Long haul to mild]

Still pleasing on the eye at T192

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

OH MY LIFE!!!!!!!

Cross model agreement ??????????

1947 , 1962/3 , 1979 , 1983 , 1987 , 1990/91 , 2009/10 Dec 2010 , 2013???

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

With the ECM flip flopping so much i guess the 12z is for the bin also?

Still at least the first shot of cold is just about in the reliable time-frame, but what happens to it after 5 days in anyone's guess at the moment!

[iowpompeylee]

It seriously looks like nationwide disruption if these verify..

[weatherguy]

Apologies for ramping everyone...

hints of 1947?

[TEITS]

think it would be more rain or sleet in the south and south west..wet snow in wales

Sorry but that's rubbish.

[Southender]

Whats the betting GFS now jumps ship on the pub run?!...It would be just typical wouldn't it...

[bluearmy]

Matt Hugo on twitter

The bigger picture (GFS ENS) paint a much milder scenario! meteociel.com/cartes_obs/gen… | 2 cold model runs doesn't automatically mean cold weather.

that was pre 12z ecm op. mind you, it still stands as good advice. btw, the jma underwhelming in comparison though still a good winter run

iceberg did give us a 'heads up' re the recent ecm runs that were not good in the atlantic

Edited January 8, 2013 by bluearmy

[iowpompeylee]

Matt Hugo reins us in on Twitter with a note if caution:

@MattHugo81: The bigger picture (GFS ENS) paint a much milder scenario! http://t.co/eW1tkQu5 | 2 cold model runs doesn't automatically mean cold weather.

that was before the ECM came out lol

[PolarWarsaw]

All an OP is, is a pick of the ENS. This morning we had a bad pick, the opposite end this afternoon.

12zgasm.

*Can only get worse from here though, from experience will do to*

[MR EXTREMES]

stunning se tracking low pressure could this give us another blast from the east.

or a northerly in the next frame lovely looks fairly realistic aswell.