Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards

[karlos1983]

Oh my, -8 850's UK wide at 168, pinch me please

[snowking]

It jusr gets better and better and better

Day 7 easterly anyone?

SK

[on the coast]

WTF, I dont know what to say.

I am amazed too. After the update today from the Met Office and the latest ECM runs I feared the worse but what a turn around. Stunning.

[Stuie]

Fancy the ECM and Steve Murr both backtracking in the same day! that must be a meteorological first.

Nice to see Steve that the models are showing your "flavour".

Edit:

Edited January 8, 2013 by StuieW

[Iceberg]

Last post from me for the 12z's.

ECM at T144 shows how out of kilter the two previous EC runs were, Greenland going from a 990mb low to a 1030mb high at T144.

Not enought yet for the meto S word i think that will wait until tomorrow 11am personally.

Good to see EC keeps the Western Low for Monday that would provide loads of snow for western areas...

[Cheshire Freeze]

i hope steve's dongle is snowproof !

If some of today's output verifies, Steve could soon be freezing his dongle off

[cold snap]

Well at 168 we've had better runs ??

Lol WOW we need the army in more blizzards anyone ????

[ITSY]

ECM various forms of heavy snow possible from 96-144 at least. Similar to UKMO and GFS Op. BOM on board and GEM too I believe.

Only drawback is milder GFS ens.

and while I write this, 21 extra replies. madness.

[MR EXTREMES]

very fi but possible solution if the cold gets this far west but id say if you combine all models and meet in half way house situation then u could work out what meduim term forecast is likely to be but im worried the downgrades will be back in the morning but all this said cold and snow is coming.

[nick sussex]

Talk about backtracks by the ECM!

Stunning, absolutely truly sensational, jaw dropping, unbelievable 168hrs output! Can I squeeze any more superlatives in!

[cheeky_monkey]

144 Southwest England, Ireland and Wales snow fest!

think it would be more rain or sleet in the south and south west..wet snow in wales

[Anti-Mild]

If this was to suffer a significant downgrade it would be 10 times worse than the December letdown!

I am still bowled over by the ECM +168! I reckon some places would have their deepest snow in many a year!

[Continental Climate]

Praise the lord, if this were to come off http://www.meteociel...H1-168.GIF?08-0!! This is better than 'THAT ECM'!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I might start grumbling about lack of -10's LOL

Edited January 8, 2013 by Continental Climate

[Phantom2]

well it's great to see the mood lifted in here tonight. This is only my second post in this thread having lurked in the background for a couple of years. I have to say to see the big three agreeing in the mid term is very exciting indeed ..Mr Muir must be a very happy chappy !

[Allseasons-Si]

WTF, I dont know what to say.

BIG LOL!!!

seriously,absolutley cracking 12z runs from the big guns

[ChartViewer]

Talk about backtracks by the ECM!

Stunning, absolutely truly sensational, jaw dropping, unbelievable 168hrs output! Can I squeeze any more superlatives in!

Nick we have yet to see the Chinese model tonight.....until that comes on board im hesitant to get excited.

[bluearmy]

what will get here first? the undercut or the shortwave south of svaalbard. this is like dec'09 or feb '10.

[cold snap]

Funny because this is better than the GFS

Lol .need the GFS to backtrack now ,lol

[Stu_London]

This is my first model watch where something excting is happening.

Unfortuatly i was not aware of this site for 2010 event.

So i am seeing set ups and bits and bobs i have never seen before.

Last year was a bit boring tbh.

So i am looking at various models near enough all singing from the same hymn sheet.

I have not seen this before in such a way as atm.

We are also looking at a semi/reliable timeframe are we not?

Can the more experienced members tell me if you have seen such an event unfold with the model aggrement we have now,in this time frame simply downgrade??

I believe the last easterly that was on the cards was not shown on every model ,and dissapeared about 5 days out??

Thank you for your informative posts,i am really enjoying this one!

Hi Floaty

It would be a monumental model climbdown (much greater than December) for it not to get significantly colder in the next 3-4 days.

Snow is a little harder to predict. Based on todays 12z most would get some, but there is still time for microscale changes in that department.

Edited January 8, 2013 by Stu_London

[iowpompeylee]

Would love verification from Ian fergusson and Matt Hugo.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Mr BROWN............do we follow the ECM now, or the GFS, or the UKMO or..........

BFTP

Ps just to add Ian I mean this light heartedly

Edited January 8, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[MR EXTREMES]

think it would be more rain or sleet in the south and south west..wet snow in wales

yeah most likely with them uppers lol

[Southender]

So can they ALL be wrong at day 4/5?

Come on how long before we can RAMP?

[Lampostwatcher]

GFS , Ukmo , ECM

All fantastic at T120

Just need Peter cockfrost to show snow for Saturday :-D

[snowstorm445]

Given the inconsistency of the ECM I think we should at least wait until tomorrow morning's run confirms this before we get shovels ready. That is if the GFS or the UKMO haven't already done a runner on the idea of cold heading our way.