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Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards


reef

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Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire

I'm as shocked as everyone in here, the 12z ECM is truly the best setup we have seen for a very long time for severe cold and (eventually) Blocking establishing over Greenland.

BUT, I'm just taking it as another model run at least for now.

Now awaits the 18z GFS.

Lets get ready for that!

SM

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

We've not seen snow since Jan '10 I don't think and you guys get bucketfuls

Not in Lancashire we don't unless you live in the Pennine areas, anyway I'm just glad to see the back end of all the weeks rain we've had and are still having.
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Posted
  • Location: Horndean, Hampshire
  • Location: Horndean, Hampshire

David Brain on spotlight a minute ago no mention of cold next week . Just a bit colder over the weekend with rain .

mind you,this is cornwall afterall. Dont want the palm trees getting snowed on.

BBC South showing temps of 8c and rain throughout Saturday. I know that they would not have updated their forecast with regard the latest models but not even a hint of anything colder did they mention! (unlike our Ian in the West who at least alluded to it).

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers and cold snowy winters
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells

Just wanted to thank all the posters in here for a fantastic evening's model watching - whatever happens in reality, it's been a blast - from tears, through hysteria, to euphoria - Steve Murr is happy again - Ian Brown (of all people!) gave me the best laugh I've had all week and proves he is a top bloke after all - couldn't get much better really!

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Without going into ramp mode - those days are gone-

SPLIT flow = 100% WIN.- so if the split flow lands at 96 over the western tip of greenland it will be 100% chance of varification for the UK.

So rememeber whilst those fab charts are in seemingly FI tonight the split flow is just T96 for greenland-

S

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Posted
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl

Matthew Hugoâ€@MattHugo81

Now the 'big 3' (UKMO, ECM, GFS) are showing a similar model evolution the next thing needed is consistency for this trend...

Pretty much what the regulars on here are saying. Please dear Lord let there be a consistency for this trend now. Amen

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

More runs needed I hear lol, I think we will all be saying that down to T+12 after last month.

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

Yes I know and the poster was referring to Monday I thought with regards to the LP sinking SE.

Shame the ECM doesn't go any further because it would get even colder from the NE!

the poster has experience of living in south west with its own micro climate of being surrounded by warm water s on three sides...very often cold snowy set ups here end as rain/sleet where other places would get snow.
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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

A stonking end to a stonking run from the ECM this evening.

From zero to hero!

That is a HUGE about-turn compared to yesterday's 12z run

today.. yesterday..

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Great to see some consistency between the models. Remember the Cohen climatology? Well the Greenland heights fit right in with that and also a certain Mr Rampling's thoughts and the strat position and the MJO forecasts. When we bang on about strat warmings it is about these synoptics that they can create (I know that they haven't verified yet but we are headed in the right direction).

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Posted
  • Location: Mostly Watford but 3 months of the year at Capestang 34310, France
  • Weather Preferences: Continental type climate with lots of sunshine with occasional storm
  • Location: Mostly Watford but 3 months of the year at Capestang 34310, France

Checking over the other forecast sites fo my area of Watford, the 'weatheroutlook' is the only one to have snow for Saturday evening - suspect we have a forecaster's nightmare in the offing.

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Posted
  • Location: Blackpool, Lancashire
  • Location: Blackpool, Lancashire

I'm excited for everyone, but it seems myself in Blackpool will be stuck with frost and ice - as is the case with this set-up. I hope we can get a raging Northerly out of this a la Novemeber/December 2010, whereby we had an intense NE/E for a while, which destroyed the East of the UK and Ireland, followed by that unforgettable Northerly which left much of the UK completely white!

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

Omg, Just seen the charts, Looks like we may get up to 50 ostriches of snow!

.. On a more serious note.

I'm really happy that the GFS is showing what it is. I've said it before and I will say again.

I always felt that the GFS is very westerly driven. So for it to show a good chance of easterly control, then it must have some strong data showing this.

Fingers crossed yall

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

Don't be totally surprised if this agreement disappears over the next 12hours - that seems to be what the models love to do at the moment.

However, I would love (not like, LOVE) to be proved wrong and if indeed I am (and we have an improved set of ECM and GFS ens tonight and tomorrow) then I would justifiably start to get a TAD excited. But its TOO early for the level-headed out there. TOO EARLY YET.

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

Can't help but urge caution in terms of expectation! It seems to me that every few runs ppl are going from utter despair to unapologetic jubilance. Cold would very much need to become firmly entrenched before sustained or regular snow events could be considered. I tend to follow Simon Keeling as he seems to be fairly spot on and presents well backed up and unbiased forecasts. At present he's opting for a brief cold incursion over the weekend and then a trend to (and I stress) cooler period with interludes of cold and mild till mid Feb! Now before members jump down my throat about not being able to reliably predict past 72hrs out, I actually agree, but Mr Keeling watches trends and he's been pretty much spot on this winter (as was he last winter).

BTW I too badly would love snow and prolonged cold but I'm a realist and rather than go into a deep depression oe becoming elated with every model run, I weigh up potential based on output and expert analysis!

ALL The big 3 ukmo ecm gfs only 4days to go thats the difference!

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Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset

Interesting to note that the ECM hasn't really backtracked in the traditional sense, ie its not been showing mild for five days in a row and suddenly changed, it has simply reverted to the evolution it was showing about 4 runs back which at the time had a good deal of ensemble support.

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Posted
  • Location: Mostly Watford but 3 months of the year at Capestang 34310, France
  • Weather Preferences: Continental type climate with lots of sunshine with occasional storm
  • Location: Mostly Watford but 3 months of the year at Capestang 34310, France

You live on the lizard peninsula? Must be hard pushed to get snow there unless its an exceptional month like Dec 2010.

Naw, they got plenty in 1963 and on the Scilly Isles as well.

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

I hate to ask but from a selfish IMBY point of view should I get remotely excited for us in the west of Ireland??

If not enjoy your cold spell those who will get itgood.gif

NO!rofl.gif

You never know in these kind of set ups if any fronts from Atlantic stall over your area, then yes copious amounts. I think anyone is at risk of snow in the next 7 days.

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Posted
  • Location: Brussels, Belgium
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy weather in winter, dry and warm weather in summer
  • Location: Brussels, Belgium

Just watched the weather forecast on Irish TV (they use the ECM for their forecasts). They're still going for westerlies next week! They obviously haven't seen the latest output! :D

Edited by snowstorm445
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