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Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards

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A new thread for the discussion of the models. Please try to keep on topic as it is very difficult for people to read what the models are showing when informative posts are buried in one-liners and off-topic chat.

There's the other thread for that here:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75210-model-mayhem-moan-ramp-go-nuts/

The more technical thread is here:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/58354-in-depth-model-discussion-analysis-and-summaries/

Bear in mind the team try to keep things as readable as possible, but when the thread is moving so fast theres only so much we can do. Please help us by thinking whether your post belongs here or in the other thread before you post it.

Thanks!

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GFS and UKMO are ok this morning. Perhaps not the best short term in terms of deep cold and snow but pay back longer term.

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UKMO is alot better then the GFS at 144. Better Height rise towards Greenland

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<Reliable timeframe, which according to GFS00Z run should be nearer to the T72 mark>

So a new thread starts a disappointing morning in terms of cold progress being knocked back consistently now.

GFS 00Z run downgrades. UKMO 00Z Not so good either. ECM maybe delivers somewhat better. Important 12Z's today.

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Looks like winter is pushed back by a further two weeks at the moment if the GFS is correct, but I am not buying it in the slightest

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UW144-21.GIF?08-05

That is another potential chart @ T144, the very last frame. The same/similar potential that should have been nearer to T96 by now has not come to fruitation YET.

Ensembles were reasonable, probably another top end OP run early doors.

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Looks like winter is pushed back by a further two weeks at the moment if the GFS is correct, but I am not buying it in the slightest

Rather chilly on the GFS and UKMO next week with marginal Snow events possible. Not at all bad?

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I don't think the output can be seen as disappointing in the broader context.

The GFS Op is quite tortuous and we don't want to have to wait until 10+ days for any deep cold but no reason to believe that will be correct and at least it does get very cold in the end.

UKMO doesn't really give any short term joy but looks like it would be a good run if we could see further ahead.

NOGAPS is poor but the model is cannon fodder and only to be trusted when showing cold and straw clutching. acute.gif

GEM is nice out to 120 and could produce snow for the South on Sunday.

gemnh-0-120.png?00

Just need the shortwave to develop over Iceland and slide SE and it should deliver.

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I don't think the output can be seen as disappointing in the broader context.

The GFS Op is quite tortuous and we don't want to have to wait until 10+ days for any deep cold but no reason to believe that will be correct and at least it does get very cold in the end.

UKMO doesn't really give any short term joy but looks like it would be a good run if we could see further ahead.

NOGAPS is poor but the model is cannon fodder and only to be trusted when showing cold and straw clutching. acute.gif

GEM is nice out to 120 and could produce snow for the South on Sunday.

gemnh-0-120.png?00

Just need the shortwave to develop over Iceland and slide SE and it should deliver.

Okay so the shortwave didn't drop SE. quite different to anything else we have seen. The water just seems to be getting muddier instead of clearer but at least it is an Easterly of sorts.

gemnh-0-204.png?00

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Could do with the pattern further west as usual though.

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GEM is excellent. Consistently cold right the way through and similarities with GFS in FI.

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GEM is excellent. Consistently cold right the way through and similarities with GFS in FI.

Would you think if the UKMO went out further it turn out the same?

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GEM is excellent. Consistently cold right the way through and similarities with GFS in FI.

Any similarities are coincidental. We have to rely on a secondary feature (not in any other output) developing at the right time and in the right place and undercutting.

gemnh-0-180.png?00

Precarious route to say the least.

GFS ensembles are all over the place as well but there is no support for the Op through 120/144 if you look at 2m temp and pressure profile for NW England.

Would you think if the UKMO went out further it turn out the same?

They are totally different by 144 but the UKMO would most likely go on to produce cold Northeasterlies

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Rather chilly on the GFS and UKMO next week with marginal Snow events possible. Not at all bad?

What I meant in my post, and I should have elaborated more than I did was deep cold. IE more than just a few days cold at best. I am not convinced by the Op in the slightest.

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What I meant in my post, and I should have elaborated more than I did was deep cold. IE more than just a few days cold at best. I am not convinced by the Op in the slightest.

I think it's always been an outsider esp since yesterday morning when that Low popped up. As I've said the pattern is generally to far east to produce (I think) but there is a great signal for later next week. The UKMO 144h holds a lot of interest going forward.

Temps next week are Cold nonetheless. If we can keep the pattern further west the better :)

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Nothing of interest in the reliable on ECM. Out to 144, no joy. Back to bed with me!

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GFS,GEMS & UKMO all now pointing in the right direction - they just seem to be 'slipping' on every run !!

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Could be some decent ppn totals for Pennines N York Moors Teeside W Cumbria this weekend from the battleground situation.

post-6879-0-06783300-1357627512_thumb.pn

post-6879-0-05933100-1357627535_thumb.pn

Then a chance of light ppn for the SE before a full blown Easterly snowmaggedon establishes itself (FI) but I wont post that chart for the sake of forum members sanity....!

Ian

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Ensembles are very good again. Not completely plain sailing as you would expect.

ECM does have a little support from several of GFS ensembles but the vast majority are cold out at 168 and much beyond that any sense of coherence just breaks down.

Jason

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Thanks for that info Matt,clearly we have many more nail- biting days to survive.

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