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Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards

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A new thread for the discussion of the models. Please try to keep on topic as it is very difficult for people to read what the models are showing when informative posts are buried in one-liners and off-topic chat.

There's the other thread for that here:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75210-model-mayhem-moan-ramp-go-nuts/

The more technical thread is here:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/58354-in-depth-model-discussion-analysis-and-summaries/

Bear in mind the team try to keep things as readable as possible, but when the thread is moving so fast theres only so much we can do. Please help us by thinking whether your post belongs here or in the other thread before you post it.

Thanks!

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GFS and UKMO are ok this morning. Perhaps not the best short term in terms of deep cold and snow but pay back longer term.

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<Reliable timeframe, which according to GFS00Z run should be nearer to the T72 mark>

So a new thread starts a disappointing morning in terms of cold progress being knocked back consistently now.

GFS 00Z run downgrades. UKMO 00Z Not so good either. ECM maybe delivers somewhat better. Important 12Z's today.

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Looks like winter is pushed back by a further two weeks at the moment if the GFS is correct, but I am not buying it in the slightest

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UW144-21.GIF?08-05

That is another potential chart @ T144, the very last frame. The same/similar potential that should have been nearer to T96 by now has not come to fruitation YET.

Ensembles were reasonable, probably another top end OP run early doors.

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Looks like winter is pushed back by a further two weeks at the moment if the GFS is correct, but I am not buying it in the slightest

Rather chilly on the GFS and UKMO next week with marginal Snow events possible. Not at all bad?

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I don't think the output can be seen as disappointing in the broader context.

The GFS Op is quite tortuous and we don't want to have to wait until 10+ days for any deep cold but no reason to believe that will be correct and at least it does get very cold in the end.

UKMO doesn't really give any short term joy but looks like it would be a good run if we could see further ahead.

NOGAPS is poor but the model is cannon fodder and only to be trusted when showing cold and straw clutching. acute.gif

GEM is nice out to 120 and could produce snow for the South on Sunday.

gemnh-0-120.png?00

Just need the shortwave to develop over Iceland and slide SE and it should deliver.

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I don't think the output can be seen as disappointing in the broader context.

The GFS Op is quite tortuous and we don't want to have to wait until 10+ days for any deep cold but no reason to believe that will be correct and at least it does get very cold in the end.

UKMO doesn't really give any short term joy but looks like it would be a good run if we could see further ahead.

NOGAPS is poor but the model is cannon fodder and only to be trusted when showing cold and straw clutching. acute.gif

GEM is nice out to 120 and could produce snow for the South on Sunday.

gemnh-0-120.png?00

Just need the shortwave to develop over Iceland and slide SE and it should deliver.

Okay so the shortwave didn't drop SE. quite different to anything else we have seen. The water just seems to be getting muddier instead of clearer but at least it is an Easterly of sorts.

gemnh-0-204.png?00

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GEM is excellent. Consistently cold right the way through and similarities with GFS in FI.

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GEM is excellent. Consistently cold right the way through and similarities with GFS in FI.

Would you think if the UKMO went out further it turn out the same?

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GEM is excellent. Consistently cold right the way through and similarities with GFS in FI.

Any similarities are coincidental. We have to rely on a secondary feature (not in any other output) developing at the right time and in the right place and undercutting.

gemnh-0-180.png?00

Precarious route to say the least.

GFS ensembles are all over the place as well but there is no support for the Op through 120/144 if you look at 2m temp and pressure profile for NW England.

Would you think if the UKMO went out further it turn out the same?

They are totally different by 144 but the UKMO would most likely go on to produce cold Northeasterlies

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Rather chilly on the GFS and UKMO next week with marginal Snow events possible. Not at all bad?

What I meant in my post, and I should have elaborated more than I did was deep cold. IE more than just a few days cold at best. I am not convinced by the Op in the slightest.

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What I meant in my post, and I should have elaborated more than I did was deep cold. IE more than just a few days cold at best. I am not convinced by the Op in the slightest.

I think it's always been an outsider esp since yesterday morning when that Low popped up. As I've said the pattern is generally to far east to produce (I think) but there is a great signal for later next week. The UKMO 144h holds a lot of interest going forward.

Temps next week are Cold nonetheless. If we can keep the pattern further west the better :)

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Nothing of interest in the reliable on ECM. Out to 144, no joy. Back to bed with me!

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Could be some decent ppn totals for Pennines N York Moors Teeside W Cumbria this weekend from the battleground situation.

post-6879-0-06783300-1357627512_thumb.pn

post-6879-0-05933100-1357627535_thumb.pn

Then a chance of light ppn for the SE before a full blown Easterly snowmaggedon establishes itself (FI) but I wont post that chart for the sake of forum members sanity....!

Ian

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Having read some of the comments on the first page of this thread, I'm glad I actually went and looked at the models myself!

ECM is poor - no denying that. UKMO, it's difficult to know where we would go from there, it looks a bit delicately poised at 144. However, GFS really continues from 18z, heights not at strong as then across Greenland but at face value whilst a lot could go wrong (standard UK winter fare) it's a decent run!

Some people ought to look at an archive chart for the winter so far....or get a little more sleep :)

SK

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Morning all..

Quieter shift this morning, so thought I would post a few thoughts.

The 00Z EC Det model is in keeping with the 12Z run yesterday and to me, looks like another milder outlier. Clearly it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that the EC is now far 'flatter' because of the distinct lack of a more meridional pattern with ridging up towards Greenland, which is evident on the GFS Det for example. Speaking of the GFS, the 00Z run is also in keeping with the 18Z, and whilst on the cold side of the 00Z GFS ENS guidance envelope, it is not without support from some of the other GFS ENS members.

The EC model in particular is sort of following a smaller number of it's ensembles at the moment. The pattern it shows is, without question, evident within it's ensembles, but there are a large majority of them that maintain a more meridional and blocked pattern that could 'produce' the goods further down the line. Clearly we are none the wiser as to how things will progress from approximately this time next week onwards. The weekends details remains uncertain as well, despite higher confidence for this low to move NW to SE on Fri/Sat before then clearing to the south into Sunday to allow the colder E or NE'ly flow, at least for 24 or 48hrs into early next week.

Take this as you will (disclaimer), but the overnight update of the EC32 day maintains a marked region of higher than average pressure to the north and north-west of the UK (Greenland block) throughout the remainder of January in particular, as a zone of lower than average pressure dominates to the south and south-east of the UK. The pattern is similar to the failed pattern back in November/December and the dominant direction of the wind is either from the N or NE within the EC32 throughout the rest of January with temperatures at least 2C or 3C below climate averages. So in essence a cold and wintry outlook from the EC32 day for the 2nd half of the month.

A fascinating period of model watching ahead. Clearly we could either end up getting 'both barrels' and see some proper cold and snowy conditions as per recent GFS Det runs, or we end up with something far more timid and Atlantic driven. Both are possibilities, but before anyone asks, I'm going to stick my neck out and say I believe/feel that the colder option is the more likely outcome within the next 14 to 21 days, especially when you factor in a really noteworthy SSW event.

Regards to all, Matt.

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Ensembles are very good again. Not completely plain sailing as you would expect.

ECM does have a little support from several of GFS ensembles but the vast majority are cold out at 168 and much beyond that any sense of coherence just breaks down.

Jason

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Thanks for that info Matt,clearly we have many more nail- biting days to survive.

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