Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13

[Anti-Mild]

I still do not get why the GFS retains such low heights over Greenland with the strat warming forecast as it stands.

[snowking]

hmmm.ukmo looks to be falling in line with gfs at the moment on this run.

Really?

Further NW with the pattern, and the trough off the eastern seaboard is further north than on the 0z UKMO (and the 12z GFS) and more in line with the ECMWF.

No telling where 144 will go, but its certainly not suggestive of 120 of backing towards GFS

SK

[Methuselah]

Let's cut-out the personal remarks?

[Jason H]

its getting there but slower than before dont panic im confident no ian b rampede today.

Nothing wrong with that chart

[latitude]

This is funny, Majorca seems to be in the firing line for our winter weather again!

[mountain shadow]

Not if they have listened to Ian Brown they wont.

[bradymk]

UKMO for me is quite a bit better than GFS at same timeframes.

[MR EXTREMES]

GFS 12z says it all. -5 line not even reaching the UK until 186 (Scotland). Think Steve Murr aluded to this yesterday before the ECM came to the rescue.

its building and energy will soon back west so theres no need to panic and this chart is only out to t156hrs

[UV-RAY]

Poor GFS and UKMO may end up going the same way, hopefully just a wobble.

[TAFKAP]

ECM will come to the rescue again this evening. No point stressing yet.

[MR EXTREMES]

Oh dear http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?06-17!! I feel many toys will be thrown out of many prams this afternoon

so whats up with this chart ?

[Harsh Climate]

To be honest no matter how poor or good this run is, it means nothing until we have seen the esembles.

Even on stellar runs you usually get a few poor perpetrations, this run could very well be one of those..

Eyes for me firmly on the ukmo and ecm.

Edited January 6, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[snowstorm445]

Nothing wrong with that chart

Yep. The Scandinavian High is still going strong. There's still ample opportunity here.

[Jason H]

so whats up with this chart ?

I'd like to know that as well. Energy heading into France nicely there.

[TAFKAP]

Not if they have listened to Ian Brown they wont.

I can feel the ban hammer coming.

[Harsh Climate]

UKMO brilliant at 144h!

[karlos1983]

This is plain UGLY!!! I'm off until the ECM rolls out, if that goes t*ts up I'll be back tomorrow!

[Continental Climate]

so whats up with this chart ?

Just alluding to the fact that the 00z of the same time frame had us in easterlies i think, maybe i need to see it on wetter first as its better than meteo

Edited January 6, 2013 by Continental Climate

[LomondSnowstorm]

Much better run hemispherically, with the energy splitting more cleanly and a tasty looking Arctic high forming by +168:

[MR EXTREMES]

watch that cold air push west and south as low heights sink south southeast.

[Bristawl Si]

if u go back a couple of days it was around 17th/18th that the 'real' cold was progged to arrive in the UK.

What we saw yday and this morning was a bonus really imo.

Edited January 6, 2013 by Bristle boy

[cold snap]

Average , Ukmo poor gfs at 144

Difficult to not feel a bit deflated , just goes to show rule gfs out at your peril

Having said that ens will be key as will the ecm

[Panayiotis]

UKMO brilliant at 144h!

It sure is, that cold pool coming our way!

[snowstorm445]

Poor GFS and UKMO may end up going the same way, hopefully just a wobble.

There's nothing really that poor about it. I would call it progressive if anything. As long as the Scandi High remains in place then I regard it as a good run.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

I think the cold has just been delayed 24hrs on this run.

Not bad at 168;