Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13

[Continental Climate]

bit of a stand off between our wee scandi high and atlantic low pressure systems http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1141.png, which seem more robust on this run than they did on the 06z!!!

[ukpaul]

There was a brief SSW event a week or two before the December's "beast from the east" failed to materialise, Easterly winds which eventually became blocked into Europe giving the eastern continent some exceptional low temps and snowfall cover. If it hasn't been for the scandi-shortwave blocking this pooling then we too would have endured a similar fate.

We would now be into week 4 of that event if it wasn't for the scandi-shortwaves breaking down any scandi-high that otherwise would have formed in its usual place. As we all know from 09/10 the implications of that is with exceptional cold eastwards.

A warming but not a SSW, there is a world of difference, as you can see from the effect on the strat.

[Geordiesnow]

It nearly does, look at the chart below (from the 06z) part of the PV is there but is blocked by the high pressure which is over Scandi. If the PV can get round the HP (which is unlikely though) it will be heading right for us, but that is more of hopecast than a forecast.

I think I'm right in saying that did the height rises in the Norwegian sea linked up with heights across the Arctic, todays run has a low across Svalbard and the high into Scandi which meant it stops cold air flooding from the Arctic into Scandi.

Just hope that low that formed across Greenland is not yet another spoiler!

[chris55]

Not so good at 120, trough to the far West is to far south with the high wrapping around and the trough just to our west is not undercutting,

[Cloud 10]

India, China, Korea.. what next !! Don't forget the Brazilian, everyone loves a Brazilian..

How about a Scottish model?

[bradymk]

There is not much different between the GFS and ECM but the low off the eastern seaboard of the US is modelled differently with ECM having a deeper trough.

[UV-RAY]

I don't know what to make of the GFS up to now, the low out West appears to have more energy, hopefully that will slide under the block.

[Continental Climate]

hopefully the atlantic wont win the battle http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1261.png!! Big changes from the 06z which had us in an easterly by next fri now we are in a south westerly, anyway all fi i suppose

[IDO]

Sinking Scandi High at T126 and the initial cold is pushed east.

[bluearmy]

Need gfs to lower those heights to our south. I think Its ridge in the west atlantic is also an issue re establishing a greeny ridge. Better scandi ridge though, in line with ecm 00z.

[chris55]

UKMO 96, not sure where it will end up?

[Southender]

Hmmm. First bite failing, Second bite required?

[Harsh Climate]

poor 12z so far

[Weathizard]

Don't like this GFS run in the slightest! Could be alright long run though?

[Catacol]

Can GFS give us an omega block by 168? I will bet not on this run, but I have seen enough already to agree with SK that GFS is gradually picking up the same scent that ECM has detected.

The next 3 ECM runs plus tomorrow's GFS 12z and the cpc anomaly charts I think will tell us the story before we go to bed tomorrow. I will put out a small sportsman's bet that by this stage we will have consensus.

Nuclear wont even half describe the situation on here should that happen. However in 9 years a forum lurker I have been here so many times I'm feeling nervous already... Ian is right for sure in one regard: these sorts of scenarios go t*ts up more times than they come to pass. With such favourable strat signals surely this time we are in for a week or more of something seasonal?

[Isolated Frost]

How about a Scottish model?

GFS moves the low into the nation, and the Scandinavian high sinks- optimistic mid-atlantic ridging, plenty of new solutions to come.

[on the coast]

Another option shown by GFS. All happens in the near reliable too so shouldnt be discounted.

[cooling climate]

GFS 12z nicely poised at t144 and looking much better and cleaner further north

than the 06z run. This should be a much better run than the 06z and more in line

with the ECM I think.

[EML Network]

Ohh dear ...it's all gone horribly wrong :-(

From this...

To This

[MR EXTREMES]

incredible push of the cold air back east on the gfs and this is from this mornings 6z i dont buy the gfs evolution and its messy looks way wrong.

ecm has been the most consistent model and im sorry the changes in the gfs 12z are massive swings.

[latitude]

GFS 12z says it all. -5 line not even reaching the UK until 186 (Scotland). Think Steve Murr aluded to this yesterday before the ECM came to the rescue.

[chris55]

UKMO 120

[swfc]

hmmm.ukmo looks to be falling in line with gfs at the moment on this run.

[bradymk]

I might be wrong but for me, there is 2 places where it is going wrong on the 12z. 1) The low off the east coast of US 2) Heights to our south

GFS makes much less off the trough of the East coast and so the ridging in the atlantic isn't as good compared to ECM which has a much deeper trough.

The GFS may well show something better though further on.

[Continental Climate]

Oh dear http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013010612/UN144-21.GIF?06-17!! I feel many toys will be thrown out of many prams this afternoon