Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13

[cold snap]

I agree with Ian brown this isn't what you would hope for

Still on the cold side not very , but this is worse case scenario

Edited January 5, 2013 by cold snap

[Ian Brown]

Guys why do we always get knocked down. All Europe, there is nothing exciting or potential in the charts IMO while that Azores high just sits there! It's typical. Where have our potential epic charts gone!!

Certainly a lot of potential for much of mainland Europe and even Mediterranean Islands.

[IDO]

As Steve said, the usual, all the cold uppers going east:

Slightly further east than the 06z, and looks like the first chance of v.cold we will miss out.

Edited January 5, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[ITSY]

SM has clearly had enough. the chart he shows oozes potential with ridging into the high arctic and into Greenland with secondary HP following into Canada as a 'last resort'. Indeed, into low res, and this last resort does exactly what it did in the last run, just a few frames later. It links with the UK/Scandi high and edges closer up to the arctic. Serious context is needed. It's the 5th Jan. the pattern change has always been at least 10 days away.

EDIT: Its quite clear this run is not the best, indeed the UK misses most of the action. But lets be serious for a second. All the background signals are there, we are still 10 days away from when cold was expected to EMERGE on the models and the SSW is only in phase 1 of 3. Honestly, just relax people. Hate to say it, but this is what happens when people urge others to through caution to the wind.

Edited January 5, 2013 by ITSY

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Steve's right, for us its a poor run. It will delay the cold somewhat and I am thinking of RJS as we move forward.

BFTP

[weatherguy]

It's actually very similar, synoptically speaking, to the 06z so far (up to +240). Potential cold is still FI so, and I'm sure I'm forced to say this almost every run now, there's no reward in looking too much at the exact upper temps right now, because it will most certainly be wrong this far out.

Edit - and then the high sinks...even if that happened though, still plenty of potential and we need patience.

Edited January 5, 2013 by weatherguy

[chionomaniac]

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-186.png?12

theres nothing good about this chart. zero. nada.

All that effort getting your internet set up as well..........

[Cheshire Freeze]

That piece of vortex energy west of Greenland is clearly a troublemaker. It's no coincidence that better output (for cold) follows when this is shoved further west.

[SnOwFeSt]

People getting far too caught up on the details as far out as 144+

FI is probably about 3 days at the moment, lots of different outcomes will continue to play their cards.

The main thing to look at is the building of heights to our north, the probability of WAA into Greenland later on and the stratospheric warming going on. All this makes for some interesting model watching over the coming week!

Even if we don't end up with a large slab of the PV moving in from the east (the drem outcome) colder conditions are going to happen. The worst outcome i think would be cold surface conditions for a week or so, but even this leaves us with the possibility of ice days further north.

[MR EXTREMES]

Eagle, I can't see anything other than settled weather going forward from T180 ? How do we get easterlies or northerlies from that position ?

this is really why this forum goes to bits all the time so come on ian give us a more detail explaination.

look at the deep cold flirting with the east coast of the uk.....

look at how close it all is and yet the main coarse is not even on the table.

surface cold yes please deep cold to the east yes please heights to our north yes please pv on the move yes please and its only 5th of january by the 15th its my birthday and i hope your all sing me happy snowy day to me lol.

come on its coming slowly but surely remeber ecm is top of the pops right now and the essembles are showing a decline in temps.

[IDO]

Flattens out in FI T312:

As per yesterday.

[cold snap]

Nick I need Prozac , where are you ?

Lets hope this a vague run I advise nobody to look at 300 +

If you don't have sufficient blocking this is what happens

Anyway maybe a outlier back for ECM

Edited January 5, 2013 by cold snap

[The Eagle]

Eagle, I can't see anything other than settled weather going forward from T180 ? How do we get easterlies or northerlies from that position ?

I have been saying that posters were being led up a garden path by some. This run just exemplifies the downside risks when you tell people over and over again vague nonsense about the stratosphere and how cold snowy weather is guaranteed. It's rubbish and maybe it's time some starting focusing more on the less attractive probabilities. We could end up mild and yet no one is saying that. So people get disappointed or even angry. As it turns out the worst that happens here is anticyclonic weather which is not bad compared to recently but it is way below the ludicrous expectations being built up in my view irresponsibly. That's just my opinion.

Edited January 5, 2013 by The Eagle

[Ian Brown]

All that effort getting your internet set up as well..........

Going into FI Choino, this run shows what quite a few of the 06z ensembles showed - a renewed lot of energy going into the Northern arm, which will ultimately sink the High.

[Dexter29]

Some agreeing with Steve M, others say he's insane for making such comments.

I have to say I'm with Steve M on this. Unless someone can explain how you get an easterly or northerly from that chart on 15th

Balearic islands get snow showers though

[Ian Brown]

this is really why this forum goes to bits all the time so come on ian give us a more detail explaination.

look at the deep cold flirting with the east coast of the uk.....

look at how close it all is and yet the main coarse is not even on the table.

surface cold yes please deep cold to the east yes please heights to our north yes please pv on the move yes please and its only 5th of january by the 15th its my birthday and i hope your all sing me happy snowy day to me lol.

come on its coming slowly but surely remeber ecm is top of the pops right now and the essembles are showing a decline in temps.

Its just one run but it is not even close to producing High pressure in the right place to deliver for the UK.

Of course it is going to get colder, it could hardly be much milder than it is now !

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Flattens out in FI T312:

As per yesterday.

Lets hang ourselves now then cos of course its gonna verify

[Adam lufc]

Ian browns input has been fantastic but before he was ramping it up somewhat, now it looks as though to him and me that the Azores is still a problem and that jan will just be high pressure over us and cold moving into Europe. Same old. So much for my excitement and the SSW. Anyway fancy Lapland next year...??? So frustrated!

[The PIT]

GFS 12oz Oops must be a huge mild outlier. ECM no doubt will show Icebergs at dawn.

[weathersupremacy]

Another afternoon with the 12Z, and another afternoon of immense change. What will it show in tomorrow's 12Z?

Something different...again!

So much variation in the output that we can't take any for gospel, so no point fretting about poor output

[Panayiotis]

Should the strengthening PV around Greenland be present when we have an upcoming SSW? I dont think so, but its Fi so no worries!

Edited January 5, 2013 by Panayiotis

[MR EXTREMES]

and on the final frame of the gfs is that possibly the start of energy feeding north into the greenland area.

i expect to see height rises in the nest few days around greenland.

[chionomaniac]

All I can say is that we have to treat the following chart with a lot of caution. Remember nothing is guaranteed.

[J10]

Given the weather for much of the UK in the run up to Christmas, especially in Western areas, I think many people would take this, quite a lot of dry coldish weather with quite a lot of potential in there.

Also by no means are these type of weather patterns that easy to forecast. Zonal dross is much easier to forecast.

[ChartViewer]

Some agreeing with Steve M, others say he's insane for making such comments.

I have to say I'm with Steve M on this. Unless someone can explain how you get an easterly or northerly from that chart on 15th

Balearic islands get snow showers though

I think everyone needs to refer back to Ian F's post yesterday.....The NWP will show WILD swings handling the SSW and things will not be settled until Tuesday/Wednesday i suspect between ALL the models.

For now why cant we all just enjoy what the models show...cold/not that cold....but DEFINITLY colder than today!!!!