Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13

[cold snap]

This is a very similar to 6z the same theory up to 138 so we are okay

Itsy beat me to it

Edited January 5, 2013 by cold snap

[Cheshire Freeze]

This is where it gets interesting.....we need the Iberian high to do anything other than sit there.

Edited January 5, 2013 by CreweCold

[MR EXTREMES]

looks like ukmo is our friend at

[ChartViewer]

UKMET 144

Edited January 5, 2013 by ChartViewer

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-144.png?12

pretty disappointing 12z GFS so far after reading all the AM hype ( without seeing the runs) I was expecting more- - no cold over the UK, mild westerly winds.

The pattern looks better, more seasonal - even a frost here & there- but there is certainly nothing wintry in this run.

We are still very much + 168 for anything like that.

Atlantic shortwaves at 138 exactly alligned the wrong way to allow any cold our way- typical.

Ukmo 144 a bit better but very messy-

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?05-17

The shortwaves need to track through the UK & get into the low countries to manifest the cold to the UK in the right way.

S

THe most important thing is that by day 6 Europe has a huge cold pool & it appears that the next bout of WAA in the atlantic is going NORTH which is a good direction.

Edited January 5, 2013 by Steve Murr

[ITSY]

Providing that low over Canada plays ball, this is a perfect setup for HP ridging into Greenland. Still much the same (give or take a few minor details) as the last run

[cold snap]

This has got very slow ,at 168 not as good as 6z

Edited January 5, 2013 by cold snap

[ITSY]

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-144.png?12

pretty disappointing 12z GFS - no cold over the UK, mild westerly winds.

The pattern looks better, more seasonal - even a frost here & there- but there is certainly nothing wintry in this run.

We are still very much + 168 for anything like that.

Atlantic shortwaves at 138 exactly alligned the wrong way to allow any cold our way- typical.

Ukmo 144 a bit better but very messy-

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?05-17

The shortwaves need to track through the UK & get into the low countries to manifest the cold to the UK in the right way.

S

I value your posts more than anyone SM, but I think you are looking for too much too soon. The SSW is still in Siberia and is forecast to grow for the next 300 hours. Let's get into a better synoptic position over the next week or two and then we can get the rewards. For now, this is building upto a Greenland block (albeit with the usual caveats as per mentioned above)

[MrSunshine]

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-144.png?12

pretty disappointing 12z GFS so far after reading all the AM hype ( without seeing the runs) I was expecting more- - no cold over the UK, mild westerly winds.

The pattern looks better, more seasonal - even a frost here & there- but there is certainly nothing wintry in this run.

We are still very much + 168 for anything like that.

Atlantic shortwaves at 138 exactly alligned the wrong way to allow any cold our way- typical.

Ukmo 144 a bit better but very messy-

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?05-17

The shortwaves need to track through the UK & get into the low countries to manifest the cold to the UK in the right way.

S

Are you for real!!

[The Eagle]

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-144.png?12

pretty disappointing 12z GFS so far after reading all the AM hype ( without seeing the runs) I was expecting more- - no cold over the UK, mild westerly winds.

The pattern looks better, more seasonal - even a frost here & there- but there is certainly nothing wintry in this run.

We are still very much + 168 for anything like that.

Atlantic shortwaves at 138 exactly alligned the wrong way to allow any cold our way- typical.

Ukmo 144 a bit better but very messy-

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?05-17

The shortwaves need to track through the UK & get into the low countries to manifest the cold to the UK in the right way.

S

Problem is the weak westerly jet. Been like that for a few runs now.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Loaded with potential...

Which way will it go from here?

[MR EXTREMES]

surface cold could be wintry up north on this chart but still going in the right direction still another kind of evolution im sure we will see many more in the next couple of days.

[cold snap]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=180&mode=0&carte=1

Much better at 180 steve ?

Seamed to gone through a more difficult route

[SMU]

Are you for real!!

.

In what way does your analysis differ...- everything in the post is correct.

If you dont understand the charts refer to the learning section

Edited January 5, 2013 by Steve Murr

[ITSY]

Its not just the WAA upto Greenland that is interesting here. The entire PV looks like its about to be sliced in 2. Look at the ridging on the other side of the Hemisphere. It builds into an Arctic high. Heights continuing to rise over Greenland in anticipation of the WAA - now if the arctic high could ultimately link with the Greenie block we would be in business, big time.

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013010512/gfsnh-0-186.png?12

theres nothing good about this chart. zero. nada.

[MR EXTREMES]

i bet if the gfs went out further it would show some deep upers moving in.

[Ian Brown]

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=1

Much better at 180 steve ?

Seamed to gone through a more difficult route

The problem is that the core of heights is still to the SW, at T180 we are a long way from getting cold uppers to the UK, I think we are going to see a settled anti-cyclonic FI.

[The Eagle]

I think Steve is cracking up.

[cold snap]

By 186 here comes the Azores high flirting with very cold this run best way to describe it

[Adam lufc]

Guys why do we always get knocked down. All Europe, there is nothing exciting or potential in the charts IMO while that Azores high just sits there! It's typical. Where have our potential epic charts gone!!

[Ian Brown]

I think Steve is cracking up.

Eagle, I can't see anything other than settled weather going forward from T180 ? How do we get easterlies or northerlies from that position ?

[MR EXTREMES]

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-186.png?12

theres nothing good about this chart. zero. nada.

and why not steve southeast push on the alantic system if we were to be able to mover futher ahead on the gfs.

but this could be all different tomorrow infact it will be the evolution is there.

[ChartViewer]

I know people wont like this chart but synoptically it is impressive...doesnt give us cold narnia but look at the vortex!

[bobbydog]

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-144.png?12

pretty disappointing 12z GFS so far after reading all the AM hype ( without seeing the runs) I was expecting more- - no cold over the UK, mild westerly winds.

The pattern looks better, more seasonal - even a frost here & there- but there is certainly nothing wintry in this run.

We are still very much + 168 for anything like that.

Atlantic shortwaves at 138 exactly alligned the wrong way to allow any cold our way- typical.

Ukmo 144 a bit better but very messy-

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?05-17

The shortwaves need to track through the UK & get into the low countries to manifest the cold to the UK in the right way.

S

THe most important thing is that by day 6 Europe has a huge cold pool & it appears that the next bout of WAA in the atlantic is going NORTH which is a good direction.

not an ideal run steve, but under the circumstances, with the SSW data only just starting to filter into the model output, do you honestly think it will look like that in 6 days time?