Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 3rd January 2013>

[Nights King]

With all this up coming potential of cold weather,where is mullender?Sking?I seem to remember in recent times we get are best spells of cold weather when he's not around !!!!

Perhaps we should suspend his membership for the foreseeable...

I have been away for last week or so due to myself being rather ill since xmas but I am recovering now.

I postponed this weeks holiday skiing because I have not been very well but my friends want to go next weekend now which might clash with a rare cold spell here...

[cerneman]

Damp morning gloomy overcast, Invasion of cormorants on river, Never seen group of 8 birds grouping in one field before,

[Coast]

I have been away for last week or so due to myself being rather ill since xmas but I am recovering now.

Sorry to hear that M, hope you are on the road to recovery now and can enjoy whatever may be coming up!

[the gas lad]

Indeed. Surely can't be too long before Fergie is promoted to a more national weather forecast post?

Yes totally agree - I think Ian is one of the best around at the moment he goes into alot of detail , might be more tricky for a uk forecast due to timing but never of less - hes the best one we ever had in the west

can you actually see Ian doing a national forecast with his hand on the button and gets up the Doppler radar and zooming into parts of the country

Edited January 5, 2013 by the gas lad

[cerneman]

Yes totally agree - I think Ian is one of the best around at the moment he goes into alot of detail , might be more tricky for a uk forecast due to timing but never of less - hes the best one we ever had in the west

can you actually see Ian doing a national forecast with his hand on the button and gets up the Doppler radar and zooming into parts of the country

I liked the days when used magnetic symbols, Slap the snow symbol over midlands and would slid down the board and finish up on south coast, Thats how we got all our snow in the past down here

[Snowangel-MK]

I liked the days when used magnetic symbols, Slap the snow symbol over midlands and would slid down the board and finish up on south coast, Thats how we got all our snow in the past down here

You can recreate that forecast at home with these retro fridge magnets....

http://hamdis.hostedbyamazon.co.uk/Retro-Weather-Fridge-Magnets-Michael/dp/B001M789N0?traffic_src=froogle&utm_medium=organic&utm_source=froogle

[gottolovethisweather]

HAHA Something must of changed if cold and snowy weather every winter in the past successfully reached our island. The synoptic's just never deliver what you hear back then or just go wrong. Seemed so much straight forward and a lot more snowy. 1800's for e.g.

I reckon a big part of the change is overpopulation and as a consequence, far too many massive sprawling heat islands. Ok, we have to house 65 million folk somewhere but surely our gas guzzling habits and overdependency on resources etc. help to create a warmer world. Of course, I am in danger of straying into a whole different topic here so will leave it there.

Incidentally, it has to now be said that where extreme snowfalls once fell, they no longer do. For example, if you go through the records, more especially in recent years (our most productive times as humans) the extreme snowfall events are up in the hillier least populated regions.

Anyway, I feel good about the latest synoptics and here's to a good ole wintry spell or two, forthcoming.

[Snowangel-MK]

Excellent forecast from IF yesterday, for anyone that missed it here is the link....

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/news/newsid_7760000/7760862.stm

[jethro]

I look up in the 1700's we had Cold winter's every year with Snow 10 ft high. Zonal once must of been Snow fest instead of rain fest. I can't get my head round how'd you get 10 ft on this island every year with blizzards and Winter storms. I mean the Synoptic's never last long enough and are always dry. Nothing you see on the telly.

The Synoptic's interest me as we have never experienced it or more meaning myself.

Back then we were in the midst of The Little Ice Age, a cold period due primarily to a prolonged deep Solar minima lasting over several cycles. We currently are in a period of very low Solar activity, although we are supposed to be approaching Solar max (a period of intense activity), this max is proving to be much, much quieter than the rest of the 20th/21st century. Some experts, including those at NASA now think we are heading into another extended period of very Solar activity, possibly akin to that during The Little Ice Age, but no one can be definite until it actually happens. The verdict is still out on how this may impact the weather here given the current climate changes, not least the overall warmth compared to the 18th/19th century together with the much lower Arctic ice levels.

If you Google Little Ice Age, deep Solar minima or Dalton/Maunder minima, there's a wealth of info to read on this topic. Here is one you may find interesting http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/lia/little_ice_age.html Also here's a great link for info on weather in the British Isles over several hundreds of years http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/histclimat.htm

[Nights King]

You can recreate that forecast at home with these retro fridge magnets....

http://hamdis.hosted..._source=froogle

I have that very set!!

Provides great entertainment at breakfast time. Yet to get the chance to use my snow symbols this year!

Maybe I should say this winter as there has only been 5 days so far.

Edited January 5, 2013 by mullender83

[cerneman]

I have that very set!!

Provides great entertainment at breakfast time. Yet to get the chance to use my snow symbols this year!

Maybe I should say this winter as there has only been 5 days so far.

Stick snow symbol over the Scilly Isles,, That will upset them Edited January 5, 2013 by cerneman

[AWD]

Nice to see 850hpa temps slowly coming down to something more seasonal;

Still on the mild side, but not the double digits we have had. Plus other parts of the UK seeing some cooler uppers spread in.

[noggin]

I have been getting quite excited, with the buzz here and on the MOD thread. Then I thought "hang on, noggin, what are you getting excited about ?"

Is it just low temperatures and frost in the offing or is it possible that snowmageddon is coming?

Do we know? Is anything "in the bag" yet?

Is whatever it is likely to be a nationwide event?

Could it all end up as just more mild rain and gloominess?

[katemart]

Sorry to hear you've been ill, Mullender. There's a lot of it about.

The air outside is wet, even though it is not actually raining. Our overseas family are half-way home and posting joyfully on Facebook about the sunshine. This is not very kind of them as I am really fed up and would pay quite a lot to sit on a warm beach in the sun somewhere for 48 hours. But I KNOW if I did book my first ever winter holiday it would snow while I was away.

[Wilxy]

I have been getting quite excited, with the buzz here and on the MOD thread. Then I thought "hang on, noggin, what are you getting excited about ?"

Is it just low temperatures and frost in the offing or is it possible that snowmageddon is coming?

Do we know? Is anything "in the bag" yet?

Is whatever it is likely to be a nationwide event?

Could it all end up as just more mild rain and gloominess?

Im not getting my hopes up into it comes into the 72h range, just like when last time in models flipped we do have the SSW on are side this time but still going to be cautious im not being negative just don't want to get hopes up then for it to be snatched away.

[AWD]

I have been getting quite excited, with the buzz here and on the MOD thread. Then I thought "hang on, noggin, what are you getting excited about ?"

Is it just low temperatures and frost in the offing or is it possible that snowmageddon is coming?

Do we know? Is anything "in the bag" yet?

Is whatever it is likely to be a nationwide event?

Could it all end up as just more mild rain and gloominess?

The only thing in the bag is the SSW.

How and what conditions we get from it on our island will only be known by looking out the window in the day.

At the moment its just nice to have something very interesting to talk about and nice eye candy to drool over.

[Mark Parsons]

I am off to Paris on 19th so will be sods law something good will happen here!! Having said that some of the charts yesterday were showing -20 uppers over Paris for that date so that would be interesting not, the last thing I want is 3 days freezing to the bone looking around Paris. Also off to Iceland at the end of Feb so we could by then be a bit fed up with cold weather..........!!!

[AWD]

I am off to Paris on 19th so will be sods law something good will happen here!! Having said that some of the charts yesterday were showing -20 uppers over Paris for that date so that would be interesting not, the last thing I want is 3 days freezing to the bone looking around Paris. Also off to Iceland at the end of Feb so we could by then be a bit fed up with cold weather..........!!!

Paris has just a good a chance as the UK does of seeing a cold outbreak.

Like you said, some of the models are showing a cold easterly flow over Europe, and if that verified, Paris could be a interesting place to be.

[cerneman]

Seems more of the forecasters on telly are hinting of colder weather on it's way, No ramping from them but solid hints. Temps below average with frosty nights would be good to get established after mid month, with few snowy outbreaks added for interest, Anything more servere would be extra bonus, Nice if could swap my rain coat to thick woolly jumper for couple of weeks, Return to true seasonal weather---------- MAYBE

[davecornwall]

Saw the sun today, didn't last long, better than nothing though!

The model discussions are getting quite exciting, I wonder what we'll get?

[Evening thunder]

I look up in the 1700's we had Cold winter's every year with Snow 10 ft high. Zonal once must of been Snow fest instead of rain fest. I can't get my head round how'd you get 10 ft on this island every year with blizzards and Winter storms. I mean the Synoptic's never last long enough and are always dry. Nothing you see on the telly.

The Synoptic's interest me as we have never experienced it or more meaning myself.

HAHA Something must of changed if cold and snowy weather every winter in the past successfully reached our island. The synoptic's just never deliver what you hear back then or just go wrong. Seemed so much straight forward and a lot more snowy. 1800's for e.g.

Shortwaves must not of existed! A lack of Blocking from 1987-2007 might be to blame but the Blocks have come back but the Snow hasn't! If you imagine us coming out of an ice age it feels that way. A melting world with a decline of Snow. You think of Snow you think of war times. A thing of the past. You hear a great relaxing song you wanna look back on old photos of snow. The world is changing and so it's the weather. What i feel anyway

Of course short waves existed back then, we just didn't have all these models to know when (non existent in reality) cold spells didn't happen, or to hyperventilate about crazy ECM charts at T+216 and T+240, and seem so surprised when they don't happen. We had mild winters back then and get cold winter spells occasionally now (December 2010 anyone)

Snow probably also sounds more common than it was, because it is what is remembered. Just like in many years in general December 2010 will be remembered, the current mild nothingness weather or more normal months like December 2011 will not.

Of course the climate was a bit cooler back then so it was a bit easier to get snow, and there were perhaps favourable synoptics more often in the 'little ice age', though we definitely did not normally get snow fests with zonal weather or 10ft of snow every winter! maybe in the last proper ice age..

[Evening thunder]

I am off to Paris on 19th so will be sods law something good will happen here!! Having said that some of the charts yesterday were showing -20 uppers over Paris for that date so that would be interesting not, the last thing I want is 3 days freezing to the bone looking around Paris. Also off to Iceland at the end of Feb so we could by then be a bit fed up with cold weather..........!!!

I'm off to South Spain (for Uni) on the 19th, and don't get back until the 26th, so something good will definitely happen here! lol

Based on previous experience that's been my prediction for ages and now the SSW and all the signs from the experts etc are coming into line perfectly for this so far.

4th day without seeing the sun here today, even the brightness or cloud breaks predicted on the BBC forecasts haven't been happening. Barely any sunshine in the next 5 day forecast either. When will it end? :|

[Snowangel-MK]

IYet to get the chance to use my snow symbols this year!

Hopefully you won't have to wait much longer...so get well soon

[Mark Parsons]

Of course short waves existed back then, we just didn't have all these models to know when (non existent in reality) cold spells didn't happen, or to hyperventilate about crazy ECM charts at T+216 and T+240, and seem so surprised when they don't happen. We had mild winters back then and get cold winter spells occasionally now (December 2010 anyone)

Snow probably also sounds more common than it was, because it is what is remembered. Just like in many years in general December 2010 will be remembered, the current mild nothingness weather or more normal months like December 2011 will not.

Of course the climate was a bit cooler back then so it was a bit easier to get snow, and there were perhaps favourable synoptics more often in the 'little ice age', though we definitely did not normally get snow fests with zonal weather or 10ft of snow every winter! maybe in the last proper ice age..

Think I remember reading that the winters at one point were continuiosly severe for a 30 year period from the mid 1700's.........with cool summers and famine due to failed crops, we don't want that now do we!

[Nights King]

Think I remember reading that the winters at one point were continuiosly severe for a 30 year period from the mid 1700's.........with cool summers and famine due to failed crops, we don't want that now do we!

No we don't but In this day and age a regional spell of severe winters I doubt would have the same impact on a developed country such as ourselves as we import so much now as well as the massive advance in technology etc. Ice age yes but a few cold winters no.

Anyway we are not greedy a month long freeze with a couple of feet of level snow is not too much to ask for.