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Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 03/01/13


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Posted
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf

Have posted various frames from latest BOM couple pages back.....Few took notice as lesser model but isnt a scenario thats too inplausibledrinks.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

So at 240hrs, the ECM did nothing which I suggested, as there was to the west of low near Iceland stopping any heights from going northwards and instead this low, flattened the HP a little, but looking at the bigger picture, its still good, with a 1050mb high at the pole, and another ridge starting to form to the east of America.

Notice the that lows are much more south??

Wouldn't take along time for that to turn cold.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Unless ECMWF-GFS shows a very different pattern from they hinted at up to 3 days ago then the upper air pattern shown in the NOAA 8-14 day link below is about 80% likely to be the pattern in that time scale.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

I will do, whatever the two show in the morning, my view of how the upper air pattern is likely to look in the 6-15 day time frame tomorrow morning.

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Just had a nosey at Mr Bistardi latest blog where he is busy ramping the Korean Model, not one I have seen anywhere before. Either way, a helluva monthly out look from it.

post-7292-0-42221500-1357244019_thumb.jp

Also cites similarity to 1985 as Steve mentioned earlier, linking up the 10mb temp profiles.

post-7292-0-31994000-1357243995_thumb.gipost-7292-0-79926400-1357244003_thumb.gi

Here a the Wave 1 charts.

post-7292-0-64905100-1357244338_thumb.gipost-7292-0-00606400-1357244344_thumb.gi

Another point of note I was not aware of in relation to the MJO plots is that other agencies outside the rampaging GFS shown above don't update over New Year, he also mentioned the eastward Kelvin wave progression, something am not going to begin to attempt to decipher!

That 2012 wave1 chart starting to show in the top right hand corner a mass of red. Very pleasing to see some more positivity in respect of the output and excitement about what lies ahead, some cracking Ens within each GEFS run now.

Edit - add AO plot.

You can't complain when the usual -5 has to get replaced with a -6 on the graph !

post-7292-0-49094200-1357245210_thumb.pn

Edited by lorenzo
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Goodbye Azores high!!!

post-1206-0-39719000-1357244766_thumb.gi

Anything that shows negative anomalies to the sw is fine by me!

however the important part of that chart is in the north and north of the UK; the 500mb ridge building over the UK area, a -ve area east of the UK and +ve heights being shown consistently, if its cold you want, to the north. see my post above.

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Posted
  • Location: dublin
  • Location: dublin

Goodbye Azores high!!!

post-1206-0-39719000-1357244766_thumb.gi

Anything that shows negative anomalies to the sw is fine by me!

Nick I'm not joking got a splitting headache tonight , never look at so many frames of models

What does that above chart side regarding wind direction

With thanks

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

however the important part of that chart is in the north and north of the UK; the 500mb ridge building over the UK area, a -ve area east of the UK and +ve heights being shown consistently, if its cold you want, to the north. see my post above.

Yes that looks very welcome for cold lovers, maybe winter might be paying the UK a visit soon.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Yes that looks very welcome for cold lovers, maybe winter might be paying the UK a visit soon.

I would suggest 80% on before the 15th and 50% earlier

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

Goodbye Azores high!!!

post-1206-0-39719000-1357244766_thumb.gi

Anything that shows negative anomalies to the sw is fine by me!

Sorry if IT sounds like I am being stupid, but I can't seem to see the UK on that chart, could someone describe to me where it is? Many thanks. An interesting few weeks lie ahead and we are starting to see the first changes to the pattern showing up in charts, exciting times ahead me thinks!

Edited by Mark Neal.
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Nick I'm not joking got a splitting headache tonight , never look at so many frames of models

What does that above chart side regarding wind direction

With thanks

Its the flow at 500mb not the surface

at the surface from initially nw the most liely beyond that hard to say.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Sorry if IT sounds like I am being stupid, but I can't seem to see the UK on that chart, could someone describe to me where it is? Many thanks. An interesting few weeks lie ahead and we are starting to see the first changes to the pattern showing up in charts, exciting times ahead me thinks!

Top right corner

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Sorry if IT sounds like I am being stupid, but I can't seem to see the UK on that chart, could someone describe to me where it is? Many thanks. An interesting few weeks lie ahead and we are starting to see the first changes to the pattern showing up in charts, exciting times ahead me thinks!

try the top right of the chart along with the outline of Iberia, France etc?

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

Top right corner

Many Thanks! Spotted now, that chart certainly shows potential for us in Blighty!

try the top right of the chart along with the outline of Iberia, France etc?

Got it, Thanks John!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Nick I'm not joking got a splitting headache tonight , never look at so many frames of models

What does that above chart side regarding wind direction

With thanks

You can't really view those in terms of wind direction but just a general pattern of negative/ positive anomalies and of course they wont pick up the dreaded shortwaves!

However following on from JH's post roughly if we have lower heights to the east and positive ones to the nw then you'd expect a flow between n/ne.

If you look towards northern Canada you'll see the PV located there and you'd be looking at a cell of high pressure anywhere from the nw to n of the UK.

They're positive maps for cold potential but best to remain cautious until we see solid agreement between models in the nearer timeframe.

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Posted
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf

They're positive maps for cold potential but best to remain cautious until we see solid agreement between models in the nearer timeframe.

Agreed Nick we have seen these H5 anomaly charts show fantastic blocking in Dec but all extended cold got scuppered by a shortwave which couldnt be predicted by any mid term anomaly chart........

Although i suspect we are in for much better outcomes this time

Edited by ChartViewer
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Goodbye Azores high!!!

post-1206-0-39719000-1357244766_thumb.gi

Anything that shows negative anomalies to the sw is fine by me!

solid trend as each day passes on these. also, i note the mean 552 dam now almost clear of the entire uk. heights lowering across to the south and drifting north. the warm mean ridge slowly turns cold as the flow cools over time. of course, that assumes the extended ens data is worth anything !!

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Posted
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, Heat, Thunderstorms
  • Location: OSLO, Norway

Just had a nosey at Mr Bistardi latest blog where he is busy ramping the Korean Model, not one I have seen anywhere before. Either way, a helluva monthly out look from it.

post-7292-0-42221500-1357244019_thumb.jp

Also cites similarity to 1985 as Steve mentioned earlier, linking up the 10mb temp profiles.

post-7292-0-31994000-1357243995_thumb.gipost-7292-0-79926400-1357244003_thumb.gi

Here a the Wave 1 charts.

post-7292-0-64905100-1357244338_thumb.gipost-7292-0-00606400-1357244344_thumb.gi

Another point of note I was not aware of in relation to the MJO plots is that other agencies outside the rampaging GFS shown above don't update over New Year, he also mentioned the eastward Kelvin wave progression, something am not going to begin to attempt to decipher!

That 2012 wave1 chart starting to show in the top right hand corner a mass of red. Very pleasing to see some more positivity in respect of the output and excitement about what lies ahead, some cracking Ens within each GEFS run now.

Edit - add AO plot.

You can't complain when the usual -5 has to get replaced with a -6 on the graph !

post-7292-0-49094200-1357245210_thumb.pn

Done some searching, not sure if this is of any help but hey ho!

Courtesy of Americanwx forum:

"The model output from the Korean Met Agency is actually a version of the Unified Model (which is the proper name of the UKMET model) that they started running in 2007. They started using a 4DVAR assimilation scheme (like the ECMWF) earlier this year, and they're planning a resolution increase from the current 40 km to 25 km. The red line on the graph is their 4DVAR-based upgrade...it'll be interesting to see more results from that, especially after the resolution upgrade."

and i know this is outdated but if anyone can decipher it then go ahead as it was with the above quote

post-35-0-17305800-1292783747.png

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Posted
  • Location: dublin
  • Location: dublin

You can't really view those in terms of wind direction but just a general pattern of negative/ positive anomalies and of course they wont pick up the dreaded shortwaves!

However following on from JH's post roughly if we have lower heights to the east and positive ones to the nw then you'd expect a flow between n/ne.

If you look towards northern Canada you'll see the PV located there and you'd be looking at a cell of high pressure anywhere from the nw to n of the UK.

They're positive maps for cold potential but best to remain cautious until we see solid agreement between models in the nearer timeframe.

Thanks nick as always

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Posted
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl

I would suggest 80% on before the 15th and 50% earlier

John, as an avid follower of your posts, would you please explain why you are so bullish of cold in the uk compared to your usually quite conservative (and indeed balanced) self? I thought you wanted to see 3 consecutive 500 mb charts going the same way before you nailed your colours to the mast. Surely that hasn't happened already at this early stage has it?

Far more amateur than you of course as a former professional, I'd place the odds much lower though (although perhaps we should say odds of what precisely) and I am nowhere near the biggest doom merchant on this board!

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

A question for the more experienced members - the mjo is something many people have said they are worried about recently, is the forecast very reliable? I seem to remember just yesterday someone posting the mjo plots and there was a weak phase 5 after phase 3-4 now it seems much more progressive towards 7-8? Is this normal?

And with regards to the NAO/AO what, ideally, is best for cold to be delivered here?

Thanks to anyone that can't be bothered to answer the questions, avid model follower but teleconnections I find difficult to understand!

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

post-12721-0-68210600-1357246068_thumb.j

A split developing towards the end of the EC short ens?

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Looking at the short De Bilt ECM ensembles a colder cluster showing up at day 9/10:

post-1206-0-57715700-1357246124_thumb.pn

The main cluster does show a dip towards average, I'd say that looks about 35/15 split.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

MattHugo81

Once again, as expected, the 12Z ECM ENS are all over the place medium and long term, confidence in any specific weather type is low.

03/01/2013 20:48

MattHugo81

One uniform agreement between the GFS and ECM ensembles is, however, a marked trend towards higher pressure across the N hem. #ssw

03/01/2013 20:48

MattHugo81

EC32 day is updated overnight but I have a feeling it'll be useless at week 3 and 4 and won't be picking up anything of interesting yet.

03/01/2013 20:50

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