CET Competition - the scores ongoing

[J10]

This months figures -

 

Monthly (and also Seasonal to date)  4 got it spot on.

Weather26,  SteveB,  Mark Bayley and Polar Gael

and as result these are the Top 4.

 

Overall - The Top 3 are

Weather26,  Weather-history and coldest winter

 

Mar 2015 CET Published.xls

 

Mar 2015 CET Published.pdf

 

However no Pivot table format this month ( so far ) it may be included later)

 

Stats Zone -

 

In terms of the Stats, no real correlation this month however those entering later doing less well.

[Roger J Smith]

Table of entries, and CET statistics for May 2015

 

 

21.2 ... warmest daily mean (29th, 1780)

 

15.5 ... GOODBYE COLD WEATHER -- formerly CRAIG EVANS

15.1 ... warmest May, 1833

15.0 ... DANIEL*

13.9 ... second warmest May, 1848
13.8 ... tied third warmest Mays, 1758, 1788
13.7 ... fifth warmest May 1808
13.6 ... tied sixth warmest Mays, 1727, 1992

13.5 ...

13.4 ...

13.3 ...

13.2 ...

13.1 ...

13.0 ... THE_PIT

 

12.9 ... SNOWSTORM1, DAVEHSUG

12.8 ... POLAR GAEL

12.7 ...

12.6 ... COLDEST WINTER

12.5 ... GEOFF.W, ATLANTIC FLAMETHROWER, NIGERIAN PRINCE #

12.4 ... ROGER J SMITH, REEF, STEF

12.3 ... GODBER.1, ALWAYS EXPECT RAIN, THUNDERBOLT_

12.2 ... BOBD29, SUMMER SUN, STATIONARY FRONT, WEATHER-HISTORY, SEABREEZE86

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ----- 2014 CET -----

12.1 ... CONGLETON HEAT, PJL20101, COSTA DEL FAL, DUNCAN McALISTER, BARRY

12.0 ... CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE, BLUE_SKIES_DO_I_SEE, DR(S)NO, MULZY, DON,

... ... ... ... GREAT PLUM#, DR_HOSKING#, DANCER.WITH.WINGS#

 

11.9 ... DIAGONAL.RED.LINE, MRS TRELLIS, NORRANCE, RJBW, MARK BAYLEY ... ... ... ... ---- 2001-2014 average ----

11.8 ... LARGER THAN AVERAGE HOBO, STEWFOX, MARCUS71, MIDLANDS ICE AGE, J10

11.7 ... STARGAZER, SUMMER BLIZZARD ... ... ... ... ----- 1981-2010 average, 2012 CET -----

11.6 ... WEATHER26, JONBOY

11.5 ... SIMSHADY, DAMIANSLAW, SYED2878

11.4 ... DAVID SNOW ... ... ... ... ---- 1901-2000 average ----

11.3 ... HILLBILLY, ADERYN.COCH ... ... ... ... ... ----- 1971-2000 average, 1701-1800 average -----

11.2 ... ... ... ... ... ---- 1961-1990 average, 1659-2014 average of all data ----

11.1 ... SUNDOG, MARCH BLIZZARD ... ... ... ... ---- 1801-1900 average ----

11.0 ... BORN.FROM.THE.VOID

 

10.9 ...

10.8 ...

10.7 ... CORAM ... ... ... ... ---- 1659-1700 average ----

10.6 ...

10.5 ...

10.4 ... 2013 CET

10.3 ...

10.2 ... VIRTUALSPHERE

10.1 ...

10.0 ...

 

 

 

9.1 ... 1996 tied 13th coldest with two other years, the coldest in recent years)

8.9 ... 1879, 1885, 1902 tied 5th coldest
8.8 ... 1855 was 4th coldest

8.7 ... 1817 was 3rd coldest

8.6 ... 1740 was 2nd coldest

8.5 ... 1698 was coldest

 

3.5 .... mean for 3-5 May, 1877

2.9 .... coldest daily mean (8th, 1861)

___________________________________

 

55 on time entries, median value was 12.0 C

now at 59 entries, median still 12.0 C

 

You can still enter until the end of Sunday 3rd of May, increasing time penalties apply.

 

Table will be edited to include late entries. # one day late.

Edited May 1, 2015 by Roger J Smith

[J10]

April Results from the Monthly thread.

 

 

Scores now calculated.

 

Monthly - 5 were spot on this month at 9.0c

CongletonHeat,  Dancerwithwings,  Costa Del Fal,  Stationary Front and rjbw

 

Seasonal (Spring) -  A largely new Top 3.

Mark Bayley Thunderbolt_  and CongletonHeat

 

Annual  - A slightly rejigged top 3 with the 1-2-3 being

coldest winter, Weather-history and DiagonalRedLine

 

With previous leader Weather26 now in 8th after only guessing 0.8c out, but this shows how tight it is at the top.

 

Apr 2015 CET.xls

Apr 2015 CET.pdf

[summer blizzard]

Still 5th for the year so far, pleasing.

[Roger J Smith]

Table of entries for June 2015 CET forecast competition

 

 

23.0 ... ... ... 3rd, 1947, warmest daily mean

22.4 ... ... ... average for last five days in June 1976

21.2 ... ... ... average for last nine days in June 1976

 

19.0 ... GOODBYE COLD WEATHER!

18.8 ... DANIEL*

18.4 ... BACKTRACK

18.3 ...

18.2 ... ... ... 1846 (warmest June)

18.0 ... ... ... 1676 (2nd warmest)

 

17.3 ... ... ... 1826 (3rd warmest)

17.1 ... ... ... 1822 (4th warmest)

17.0 ... ... ... 1976 (5th warmest)

 

16.9 ... SHUGGEE

16.8 ...

16.7 ...

16.6 ...

16.5 ...

16.4 ... GEOFF.W

16.3 ...

16.2 ... VIRTUALSPHERE

16.1 ... CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE, ED STONE, THUNDERBOLT_, DUNCAN McALISTER

16.0 ... NORRANCE

 

15.9 ... ATLANTIC.FLAMETHROWER

15.8 ... CORAM

15.7 ... SUNDOG

15.6 ... GAEL_FORCE

15.5 ... REEF, MULZY, GODBER 1, J10

15.4 ... BOBD29, BLUE_SKIES_DO_I_SEE, 95 DEGREES, DAMIANSLAW, MARCUS71#

15.3 ... HILLBILLY, DANCER.WITH.WINGS, SUMMER SUN, SNOWSTORM.1, STATIONARY FRONT, DON#

15.2 ... CONGLETON HEAT, LARGER THAN AVERAGE HOBO, EASY-OASY

15.1 ... STARGAZER, DEEPSNOW ... ... ... ... ... CET 2014

15,0 ... POLAR GAEL, DR HOSKING, MIDLANDS ICE AGE, DR(S)NO, GREAT PLUM

 

14.9 ... COSTA DEL FAL, The PIT, MARK BAYLEY

14.8 ... WEATHER-HISTORY... ... ... ... ... average for 2001-2014

14.7 ... I LOVE THE SNOW, ALWAYS EXPECT RAIN,  RJBW

14.6 ... THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS, DAVEHSUG, EUGENE

14,5 ... SUMMER BLIZZARD, STEWFOX, DAVID SNOW ... ... ... average for 1981-2010, also for 1701-1800

14.4 ... WEATHER 26, BORN.FROM.THE.VOID, IAN.R, ADERYN.COCH

14.3 ...  MARCH BLIZZARD, POLAR MARITIME ... ... ... ... average for all years 1659-2014, also 1801-1900

14.2 ... DIAGONAL.RED.LINE ... ... ... average for 1961-1990, also 1901-2000

14.1 ... STEVE.B, PJL20101, JONBOY, MILHOUSE, SYED2878

... ... ... ... ... ... ... average for 1971-2000, also 1659-1700

14.0 ... ROGER J SMITH

 

13.9 ... SIMSHADY

13.8 ... SUMMER OF 95, SEABREEZE86, STEF

13.7 ...

13.6 ... ... ... ... CET 2013

13.5 ... ... ... ... CET 2012

 

12.9 ... 22NOV10BLAST

12.8 ... BARRY

 

12.1 ... WEATHERGURU.14

 

11.8 ... ... ... 1972, 1916, 1909 (tied 2nd coldest)

11.5 ... ... ... 1675 (coldest June)

 

 7.3 ... 9th (1816) and 19th (1795) coldest daily means

_______________________________________________________

 

73 entries now (at 6:30 p.m. on Monday 1st June), median value 15.1

 

any later entries to be added ... check back later today ... time penalties have commenced but entries are still accepted until end of 3rd June.

 

# entry day late

Edited June 1, 2015 by Roger J Smith

[J10]

Monthly - > no one got it spot on this month,

 

coram was 0.1c out with BornFromTheVoid 0.2c out and sundog March Blizzard both 0.3c out

 

Seasonal -> The Top 3 was BornFromTheVoid,  damianslaw and Mark Bayley

 

Overall - The Current Top 3 is BornFromTheVoid,   Weather26 and DiagonalRedLine

 

PDF Format -> May 2015 CET.pdf

 

XLS Format -> May 2015 CET.xls

 

Stats Zone

 

The average score was 1.3c out, with people going for a mild May, and we got a cool/cold one. No real correlation again

 

Monthly scores from the other thread.

[summer blizzard]

4th for the year to date. Pleased.

[Roger J Smith]

July 2015 CET forecasts, averages and extremes

 

 

25.2 ... ... ... 29th, 1948, warmest daily mean

 

20.2 ... POLAR GAEL

20.1 ... ROBBIE GARRETT, DANIEL*

20.0 ... GOODBYE COLD WEATHER!

 

19.9 ...

19.8 ...

19.7 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 2006 (warmest July)

19.6 ... STATIONARY FRONT

19.5 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1983 (2nd warmest)

19,4 ...

19.3 ...

19.2 ...

19.1 ... THUNDERBOLT_

19.0 ...

 

18.9 ...

18.8 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...  1783 (3rd warmest)

18.7 ... SUMMER SUN, ATLANTIC.FLAMETHROWER ... ... ... 1976, 1852 (tied 4th warmest)

18.6 ... LEEHWS, GREAT PLUM@ ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1995 (6th warmest)

18.5 ... DANCERWITHWINGS, CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE, NORRANCE, DUNCAN McALISTER, 95 DEGREES

18.4 ... REEF, RJBW,  BLUE.SKIES_DO_I_SEE

18.3 ... STEWFOX, MARCUS.71 ... ... ... 2013 mean (tied 9th warmest)

18.2 ... SNOWSTORM.1, MULZY

18.1 ... TIMMYTOUR, ED STONE, THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS, MARK BAYLEY, DON

18.0 ... MARCH BLIZZARD, GODBER 1, GAEL_FORCE, STEF, J10, DAMIANSLAW

 

17.9 ... VIRTUALSPHERE, ROGER J SMITH, WEATHER-HISTORY,  MIDLANDS ICE AGE, EASY-OASY

17.8 ... MILHOUSE, LARGER THAN AVERAGE HOBO, DR HOSKING

17.7 ... PJL20101, I.LOVE.THE.SNOW ... ... ... 2014 mean (tied 31st warmest)

17.6 ... SUNDOG

17.5 ... JONBOY, MATTY007, STARGAZER, SYED2878

17.4 ... BORN.FROM.THE.VOID, COSTA DEL FAL, DAVID SNOW

17.3 ... ALWAYS EXPECT RAIN, DAVEHSUG

17.2 ... DIAGONAL.RED.LINE, ADERYN.COCH

17.1 ... CONGLETON HEAT, GEOFF.W, THE PIT, SEABREEZE86

17.0 ... DR(S)NO

 

16.9 ... HILLBILLY

16.8 ... LINCOLN SNOWSTORM ... ... ... --- average for 2001-2014 ---

16.7 ... --- average for 1981-2010 ---

16.6 ... WEATHER26, BOBD29

16.5 ... SUMMER BLIZZARD, BARRY, SIMSHADY, CORAM ... --- average for 1971-2000 ---

16.4 ...

16.3 ...

16.2 ... 22NOV10BLAST

16.1 ... --- average for 1961-1990, also for 1901-2000 and 1701-1800 ---

16.0 ... --- average for all years 1659-2014 ---

 

15.8 ...WEATHERGURU.14 ... ... ... ---average for 1801-1900 ---

15.7 ...

15.6 ... --- average for 1659-1700 ---

15.5 ... IAN.R ... ... ... ... 2012 mean

15.4 ...

15.3 ...

15.2 ...

15.1 ...

15.0 ...

 

14.9 ...

14.8 ... COLDEST WINTER

14.0 ... ... ... ... ... 1965 CET (tied 11th coldest)

13.6 ... ... ... 1879 (4th coldest)

13.5 ... ... 1695,1802 (tied 2nd coldest)

13.4 ... 1816 (coldest July)

 

8.7 ... 20th (1836) coldest daily mean

____________________________________________________________

 

71 on time forecasts, one that was one day late @

 

median 17.9

 

 

Edited July 2, 2015 by Roger J Smith

[J10]

from the monthly thread

 

Well Done Roger for getting it  spot on.

 

while 6 were 0.1 out

simshady,  SteveB, pjl20101, jonboy, Milhouse and syed2878

These form the top 7 in the summer comp.

 

In the overall comp not much change with the top 3 still comprising BornFromTheVoid, DiagonalRedLine, Weather26

 

but DiagonalRedLine up to 2nd replacing Weather26 now 3rd.

 

Excel June 2015 CET.xls

PDF June 2015 CET.pdf

 

Stats Corner

 

Baseline (1981-2010)      14.5

Actual CET                      14.0

Average Entry                 15.1

Difference                        - 1.1

 

The average entry was 0.6c above the 30 year average, and ended up being 1.1c above the actual.

 

No correlation of note this month (actual figure was -0.03)

[Roger J Smith]

August CET forecasts with averages and extremes

24.9 ... ... ... ... warmest August day (1st, 1995)
20.0 ... GOODBYE COLD WEATHER
19.2 ... ... ... ... warmest August, 1995
 

18.9 ... ... ... ... second warmest August, 1997
18.8 ...

18.7 ... ... ... ... third warmest August, 1975

18.6 ... ... ... ... fourth warmest August, 1947

18.5 ... POLAR GAEL

18.4 ...

18.3 ... ... ... ... fifth warmest Augusts (tied 1747 and 2003)

18.2 ... ... ... ... seventh warmest August, 1911

18.1 ... ... ... ... eighth warmest August, 1955

18.0 ... ... ... ... ninth warmest August, 1990

17.9 ...

17.8 ... ATLANTIC FLAMETHROWER #

17.7 ... SNOWSTORM.1

17.6 ...

17.5 ... CORAM #

17.4 ...

17.3 ... HILLBILLY

17.2 ... VIRTUALSPHERE

17.1 ... CONGLETON HEAT, RJBW

17.0 ...

16.9 ... ROBBIE GARRETT ... ... ... 2013 mean

16.8 ... GEOFF.W, THE PIT

16.7 ... THUNDERBOLT_

16.6 ... ... ... ... 2012 mean

16.5 ... EASY-OASY, J10

16.4 ... BOBD29, CHEESE ... ... ... average of 1981-2010 and 2001-2014
16.3 ... PJL20101, MULZY, STEVE.B, ADERYN COCH

16.2 ... LINCOLN SNOWSTORM, DR_HOSKING ... ... ... ... average of 1971-2000
16.1 ... SUNDOG, THUNDERSNOWDAYS, MIDLANDS ICE AGE, STATIONARY FRONT, SEABREEZE86

16.0 ... SIMSHADY, COSTA DEL FAL, TIMMYTOUR, DIAGONAL.RED.LINE, JONBOY, MARK BAYLEY

15.9 ... SUMMER BLIZZARD, STARGAZER, WEATHER-HISTORY, COLDEST WINTER

15.8 ... ALWAYS EXPECT RAIN, REEF, DON, DUNCAN McALISTER

... ... ... ... ... average of 1961-1990, and 1701-1800, and 1901-2000
15.7 ... I.LOVE.THE.SNOW, DAMIANSLAW

15.6 ... SUMMER SUN, DAVID SNOW, DAVEHSUG  ... ... ... ... average of 1659-2014
15.5 ... 22NOV10BLAST, LARGER THAN AVERAGE HOBO, NORRANCE, DANCER.WITH.WINGS, SYED2878, GODBER.1, STEF

15.4 ... STEWFOX ... ... ... average of 1801-1900
15.3 ... ED STONE

15.2 ... WEATHER26

15.1 ... JEFF C, IAN.R ... ... ... average of 1659-1700

15.0 ... DR(S)NO

14.9 ... GAEL_FORCE ... ... ... ... 2014 mean
14.8 ...

14.7 ... BORN.FROM.THE.VOID,

14.6 ...

14.5 ... ROGER J SMITH

14.4 ... MARCH BLIZZARD

14.3 ...

14.2 ...

14.1 ...

14.0 ... BARRY

13.9 ...

13.8 ...

13.7 ... ... ... ... coldest August since 1956 (1986)
13.5 ... ... ... ... coldest August since 1912 (1956)
13.0 ... ... ... ... second coldest Augusts (tie) (1694,95)
12.9 ... ... ... ... coldest August, 1912

9.5 ... .,.. ... ... coldest day to 16th (16th, 1888) ... earliest sub-10 value in August

8.8 ... ... ... ... coldest August day (26th, 1864)

__________________________________________________

 

63 on time entries, plus two that are one day late (#),  the median is 16.0

Edited August 2, 2015 by Roger J Smith

[J10]

So the top 3 this month were

1. weatherguru14 (0.1c out)

2. 22nov10blast (0.3c)

3. IanR (0.4c)

 

The Seasonal comp sees a top 3 of

1. simshady

2. IanR

3 .Weather26

 

While overall the top 4 remains the same, but with a slight change in order.

 

1. BornFromTheVoid (was 1st)

2. Weather26 (was 3rd)

3. summer blizzard (was 4th)

4. DiagonalRedLine (was 2nd)

 

But still very close.

 

Full details

 

July 2015 CET.xls

 

July 2015 CET.pdf

 

Stat Zone

 

Baseline (1981-2010)       16.7

Actual CET                        15.9

Average Entry                   17.8

Difference                          -1.9

Correlation                        0.29

 

With the positive correlation showing that earlier entries did better, in many ways not surprising as many later entries were fooled that the very warm start to July was last, how wrong many of us were. 

 

To prove this point the best quartile of entries was the 1st quartile scoring 66% compared to the average of 50.5%.

[Roger J Smith]

CET forecasts, averages and extremes for September 2015

 

 

22.6 ... warmest day (2nd, 1906)
 

17.0 ... GOODBYE COLD WEATHER
 

16.9 ...

16.8 ... ... ... warmest (2006)

16.7 ...

16.6 ... ... ... ... second warmest (1729)
16.5 ...

16.4 ...

16.3 ... ... ... ... ... third warmest (tied 1865 and 1949)

16.2 ...

16.1 ...

16.0 ...

 

15.9 ...

15.8 ...

15.7 ...

15.6 ...

15.5 ...

15.4 ...

15.3 ...

15.2 ...

15.1 ... ---2014 CET---

15.0 ...

 

14.9 ...

14.8 ... STORMYKING, SUMMER OF 95, ATLANTIC FLAMETHROWER

14.7 ...

14.6 ... VIRTUALSPHERE

14.5 ... ALWAYS EXPECT RAIN, ADERYN COCH

14.4 ... SUMMER SUN, CHEESE, MARK N ... ... ... ... ---average 2001-2014---
14.3 ... BOBD29, CONGLETON HEAT, STEVE.B

14.2 ... POLAR GAEL, THE PIT

14.1 ... DR HOSKING

14.0 ... SUMMER BLIZZARD, DIAGONALREDLINE, RJBW ... ... ... ... ---average 1981-2010---
 
13.9 ... BARRY, TIMMYTOUR

13.8 ... SIMSHADY, GEOFF W, DANCERWITHWINGS

13.7 ... DAVID SNOW, WEATHER-HISTORY ... ... ... ... ---average 1971-2000, 2013 CET---
13.6 ... MIDLANDS ICE AGE, COLDEST WINTER, EASY-OASY,  ED STONE, J10, DON 

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...  ---average 1961-1990---
13.5 ... THUNDERBOLT_, DR(S)NO ... ... ... ... ---average 1701-1800, 1901-2000---
13.4 ... HILLBILLY, SUNDOG, REEF, LINCOLN SNOWSTORM, DAVEHSUG, SYED2878

13.3 ... JEFF C, GREAT PLUM, COSTA DEL FAL, DUNCAN McALISTER ... ... ... ... ... ---average 1659-2014---
13.2 ... WEATHER 26, DAMIANSLAW, LARGER THAN AVERAGE HOBO, BORNFROMTHEVOID, IANR*

13.1 ... STARGAZER, MULZY, POLAR MARITIME, STEWFOX ... ... ... ... ---average 1801-1900---

13.0 ... CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE, GAEL_FORCE, NORRANCE, STEF* ... ... ... ... ---2012 CET---

12.9 ... STATIONARY FRONT, MARK BAYLEY

12.8 ... JONBOY, CORAM

12.7 ... RELATIVISTIC STING JET

12.6 ... SEABREEZE86, GODBER.1 ... ... ... ... ---average 1659-1700---
12.5 ... MARCH BLIZZARD

12.4 ... ROGER J SMITH

12.3 ...

12.2 ...

12.1 ...

12.0 ...

 

11.9 ... SNOWSTORM1

11.3 ... ... ... ... ... coldest since 1952 and tied 14th coldest (1986)
10.7 ... ... ... ... coldest recent month and sixth coldest (1952)
10.6 ... ... ... ... fifth coldest (1703)
10.5 ... ... ... coldest (four tied, 1674,1675,1694,1807)

4.9 ... coldest day (28th, 1824)

___________________________________

 

65 on time entries, plus two late (*) median 13.5 C.

Edited September 1, 2015 by Roger J Smith

[J10]

Results now in.

 

Monthly (confirmed from above) - 4 got it spot on - summer blizzard, Stargazer, Weather-history and coldest winter

 

Summer Result - simshady holds onto win with summer blizzard 2nd (up from 4th) DiagonalRedLine 3rd (up from 6th)

 

Overall - summer blizzard up to 1st (from 3rd) DiagonalRedLine 2nd (up from 4th) coldest winter 3rd (up from 5th)

PDF -> August 2015 CET.pdf

XLS -> August 2015 CET.xls

 

Stat Zone

 

Baseline (1981-2010)      16.4

Actual CET                       15.9

Average Entry                  15.9

Difference                          0.0

Correlation                       - 0.16

 

With the negative correlation showing that earlier entries did worse, with initial entries doing the worst by a margin.

Interestingly  the average entry was spot on, the cool previous summer months gave a negative prediction for August which turned out to be correct.

[Roger J Smith]

October 2015 CET forecasts, averages and extremes

 

20.2 ... warmest day, 1st 1985

20.1 ... second warmest day, 1st 2011

 

14.0 ... GOODBYE COLD WEATHER

 

13.3 ... ... ... ... ... warmest month 2001

13.1 ... ... ... ... ... second warmest month 2005

13.0 ... ... ... ... ... third warmest months, 1969 and 2006

 

12.9 ...

12.8 ... FROZE WERE THE DAYS

12.7 ... ... ... ... ... 8th warmest, warmest of 19th century 1831

12.6 ...

12.5 ... ATLANTIC FLAMETHROWER ... ... ... ... 2013 and 2014 CET

12.4 ... THE.MOONMAN

12.3 ... CORAM ... ... ... ... tied 13th and warnest of 18th century 1731

12.2 ... BREIFMAN.11

12.1 ... CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE

12.0 ... COLDEST WINTER

 

11.9 ... STORMING.10 ###

11.8 ...

11.7 ... DUNCAN McALISTER

11.6 ... I.LOVE.THE.SNOW

11.5 ... STEVE.B, MULZY

11.4 ... POLAR GAEL, LARGER THAN AVERAGE HOBO

11.3 ... PEGG24, ALWAYS EXPECT RAIN

11.2 ... WEATHER26, SUMMER SUN, DR_HOSKING

11.1 ... STATIONARY FRONT, REEF ... ... ... ... mean 2001-2014

11.0 ... SHUGGEE, THE PIT, GAEL_FORCE, MIDLANDS ICE AGE, DAVEHSUG

 

10.9 ... STEWFOX, ED STONE

10.8 ... GEOFF.W, BORN.FROM.THE.VOID, NORRANCE, DAVID SNOW

10.7 ... BOBD29, RJBW, COSTA DEL FAL, DON ... ... ... ... mean 1981-2010

10.6 ... CONGLETON.HEAT, DAMIANSLAW, J10 ... ... ... ... mean 1961-1990

10.5 ... DR(S)NO

10.4 ... ROGER J SMITH, GREAT PLUM #

10.3 ... THUNDERBOLT_ ... ... ... ... mean 1971-2000

10.2 ... SIMSHADY, BIGSNOW, EASY-OASY, GODBER 1 # ... ... ... ... mean 1901-2000

10.1 ... STARGAZER, MARK BAYLEY, JONBOY

10.0 ... DIAGONAL.RED.LINE, SUNDOG, WEATHER-HISTORY, STEF, ADERYN COCH #

 

 9.9 ... RELATIVISTIC STING JET, IAN.R, BOBAFET

 9.8 ... JEFF.C

 9.7 .... PROLONGED.SNOW.LOVER, SUMMER BLIZZARD, MARCH BLIZZARD

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... mean for all years 1659-2014, also 2012 CET

 9.6 .... ESSEX EASTERLY

 9.5 .... LINCOLN SNOWSTORM, DANCER.WITH.WINGS ... ... ... ... mean 1801-1900

 9.4 .... ... ... ... ... mean 1701-1800

 9.3 .... ... ... ... ... mean 1659-1700

 9.2 ...

 9.1 ... DANIEL*, BARRY

 9.0 ...

 

 8.9 ....

 8.8 .... VIRTUALSPHERE

 

 8.4 .... TIMMYTOUR, HILLBILLY

 

 7.8 .... ... ... ... ... tied 26th coldest, coldest recent past, 1974 and 1992

 7.5 .... ... ... ... ... tied 8th coldest, coldest 20th century 1905

 6.5 .... ... ... ... ... tied 3rd coldest, 1683 and 1692

 6.4 .... ... ... ... ... second coldest 1817

 5.3 .... ... ... ... ... coldest 1740

 

 0.3 .... ... ... ... coldest day (since 1772) 29th, 1895

__________________________________________________________

 

66 on time entries, and 4 late so far, (# = late days) for a total of 70 entries.

 

10.7 C was median value.

Edited October 3, 2015 by Roger J Smith

[J10]

From the Monthly thread.

 

Results just calculated, based on the 12.6c confirmed value.

 

Monthly (and Seasonal)

2 players got it spot on, seabreeze86 Godber 1

These are 1 and 2 in the Seasonal comp with 22nov10blast in 3rd

 

Overall the top 3 is

1. summer blizzard

2. BornFromTheVoid (up from 5th)

3. coldest winter

 

Full Details

Sept 2015 CET.pdf

Sept 2015 CET.xls

 

Any problems let me know (politely)

 

Stat Zone

 

Baseline (1981-2010)      14.0 Actual CET      12.6 Average Entry      13.6 Difference -      1.0 Correlation -    0.30

 

With the negative correlation showing that earlier entries did worse, with initial entries doing the worst by a margin. (the same as last month)

On average, people went for cooler than average, however as it was so cool, the actual results was colder than most thought.

[Roger J Smith]

15.4 ... ... warmest day (5th, 1938)
14.4 ... ... ... warmest day in second half (22nd, 1947)
 

10.5 ... GOODBYE COLD WEATHER

10.1 ... ... ... ... warmest Nov 1994

10.0 ...

 

9.9 ....

9.8 ....

9.7 ....

9.6 .... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...  second warmest Nov 2011
9.5 .... ROGER J SMITH ... ... ... ... third warmest Nov 1818
9.4 .... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .fourth warmest Nov 1938
9.3 .... FEB1991BLIZZARD ... ... ... fifth warmest Nov 1743

9.2 .... TIMMYTOUR, ATLANTIC FLAMETHROWER

9.1 ....

9.0 .... FROZE WERE THE DAYS, GAEL_FORCE

 

8.9 .... STATIONARY FRONT, SEABREEZE86#

8.8 .... STORMING 10, COSTA DEL FAL, REEF

8.7 .... DAVID SNOW, DAVEHSUG

8.6 .... HARVE, MULZY ... ... ... ... ... ... ... tied 10th warmest Nov 2014
8.5 .... THE PIT, DR HOSKING, STEWFOX, THUNDERBOLT_

8.4 .... MAN WITH BEARD, SYED2878, MARK BAYLEY, DON

8.3 .... ED STONE

8.2 .... EASY-OASY, STEF#

8.1 .... *SUB*ZERO* , PEGG24

8.0 .... DODO, BORNFROMTHEVOID, DUNCAN McALISTER

 

7.9 .... POLAR GAEL, SUNDOG, NORRANCE,

7.8 .... CONGLETON HEAT, GREAT PLUM

7.7 .... STARGAZER, MARCH BLIZZARD

7.6 .... THUNDERSNOW.DAYS, LARGER THAN AVERAGE HOBO

7.5 .... DANCERWITHWINGS, WEATHER-HISTORY, MIDLANDS ICE AGE
7.4 .... ESSEX EASTERLY ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ---- mean of 2001-2014 ----
7.3 .... MARK N, VIRTUALSPHERE

7.2 .... STEVE.B, BLAST FROM THE PAST, DIAGONAL.RED.LINE, CORAM

7.1 .... ALWAYS EXPECT RAIN, SUMMER BLIZZARD, ADERYN COCH ... ... --- mean of 1981-2010 ----
7.0 ... SOLARCYCLE, SUMMER SUN, SURPRISED WEATHER, J10

 

6.9 .... PROLONGED SNOWLOVER, JOGGS, GODBER.1 ... ... ... ---- mean of 1971-2000 ----

6.8 .... WEATHER 26, DR(S)NO ... ... ... ... ... ... 2012 average
6.7 .... DAMIANSLAW, CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE

6.6 .... DANIEL* ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ---- mean of 1961-1990 ----
6.5 ....  ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ---- mean of 1901-2000 ----

6.4 .... DEEPSNOW, GEOFF.W

6.3 .... SIMSHADY, BIG SNOW

6.2 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 2013 average
6.1 .... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...  ---- mean of all years 1659-2014 ----
6.0 .... BOBD29
 

5.9 .... JONBOY ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ---- mean of 1801-1900 ----
5.8 .... .HILLBILLY ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ---- mean of 1701-1800 ----
5.7 ....

5.6 .... BARRY

5.5 .... ... ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... ...  ---- mean of 1659-1700 ----
5.4 ....

5.3 ....

5.2 ....

5.1 ....

5.0 ....

 

4,9 ....

4.8 .... JEFF.C
4.7 ....

4.6 ....

4.5 ....

4.4 ....

4.3 ....

4.2 ....

4.1 .... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... coldest in recent years (tied 28th overall) 1985
4,0 .... RELATIVISTIC STINGJET

 

3.6 .... VAHNSTAD

2.9 .... ... ... ... ... third coldest Nov 1807
2.8 .... ... ... ... ... second coldest Nov 1915
2.3 .... ... ... ... ... coldest Nov 1782

-0.6 ... ... ... ... earliest sub-zero mean (7th, 1791)
-2.1 ... ... coldest in first half (15th, 1965)
-4.6 ... coldest day (24th, 1904)
__________________________________________________

 

77 forecasts (75 on time, 2 late #) with a median value of 7.7 C.

Edited November 1, 2015 by Roger J Smith

[J10]

The scores from the other thread,

 

 

On 01/11/2015 at 9:08 PM, J10 said:

Results now done, I'll add the stats stuff later today/tomorrow.

Monthly - 5 got it spot on

shuggee, The PIT, Gael_Force, Midlands Ice Age, davehsug 

Seasonal - a complete change around the top 3 now is

Gael_Force,  Stationary Front, stewfox

Overall - Some movement again the top 3 now

1st Weather26 (From 5th)
2nd BornFromTheVoid (From 2nd)
3rd summer blizzard (From 1st)

But it is so close, it really remains wide open.

PDF Oct 2015 CET.pdf
XLS Oct 2015 CET.xls

 

On 02/11/2015 at 6:24 PM, J10 said:

Some additional stats held over from last night.

Baseline (1981-2010)      10.7
Actual CET                       11.0
Average Entry                  10.7
Difference                          0.3
Correlation                      - 0.14

So the average entry was bang on the 30 year average, with the warmer month catching people out a little, Later entries did better with the 3rd and 4th quartile being above 50, and with a negative correlation ( -0.14) confirms this.

Edited March 28, 2016 by J10

[Roger J Smith]

December 2015 forecasts, CET averages and extremes

 

12.9 ... warmest daily mean, 12th 1994
 

9.0 ... I HAVE NO TRUE FRIENDS NOW !

8.1 ... ... ... ... warmest Decembers 1834 and 1974
 

7.7 ... ... ... ... third warmest 1852

7.6 ...

7.5 ...

7.4 ... ROGER J SMITH

7.3 ...

7.2 ... MARCH BLIZZARD

7.1 ... ROLLO, I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252, FROZE WERE THE DAYS

7.0 ... ADERYN.COCH

 

6.9 ... CHIONOMANIAC, DITCH, CORRIGAN87 #

6.8 ... BRADOWL, CORNISH SNOW

6.7 ... COSTA DEL FAL, ALLSEASONS-SI

6.6 ... MARK WELLS, REEF

6.5 ... THE PIT, THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS, EVENING THUNDER#

6.4 ... MARK BAYLEY, BORN FROM THE VOID, FEB1991BLIZZARD

6.3 ... TIMMYTOUR, IGLOO, STEVE.B, SUMMER SUN, MAN WITH BEARD

... ... ... BLUESKIES_DO_I_SEE, DON ... ... ... ... Dec 2013
6.2 ... *SUB*ZERO* , BIGSNOW, STEF, DUNCAN McALISTER

6.1 ... NIGHTS KING, DR HOSKING

6.0 ... CONGLETON HEAT, GAEL_FORCE. | CUMBRIA MARRA |, ATLANTIC.FLAMETHROWER, JOGGS

 

5.9 ... PEGG24, STATIONARY FRONT, WEATHER-HISTORY, SNOWRAY

5.8 ... DAMIANSLAW, THUNDERBOLT_, DAVID SNOW, ALEXISJ9, MULZY, M1CHAELS#

5.7 ... AWD, MARCUS71, NORRANCE, VIZZY2004, PERFECT STORM

5.6 ... SUMMER BLIZZARD, MARK N, MIDLANDS ICE AGE, DAVEHSUG
5.5 ... ED STONE, SURPRISED WEATHER, SINGULARITY

5.4 ... HARVE, VILLAGE PLANK, BACKTRACK

5.3 ... STARGAZER, STEWFOX,

5.2 ... PAUL, CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE, LARGER THAN AVERAGE HOBO, FENO13, S4LANCIA

... ... ... BRENDA BEE LAU,  SYED2878, BAZOOKA BOB ... ... ... Dec 2014

5.1 ... ESSEX EASTERLY, PROLONGED.SNOW.LOVER, DIAGONAL RED LINE, EASY-OASY, GREAT PLUM

... ... ... ... ... ... ... --- average for 1971-2000---

5.0 ... SIMSHADY, DANCER.WITH.WINGS,

 

4.9 ... SNOW FEST

4.8 ... ALWAYS EXPECT RAIN, BOBD29, SUMMERPLUME18, RELATIVISTIC STING JET, CHRIS.R

... ... ... ... ... ... ... Dec 2012
4.7 ... POLAR MARITIME, DANIEL* DR(S)NO, SEABREEZE86, J10 ... ... ... ... ---average for 1961-90
4.6 ... ... ... ... ... ---average for 1981-2010, also 1901-2000 and 2001-2014---
4.5 ... VIRTUALSPHERE, RAVELIN

4.4 ... WEATHER 26, BLAST FROM THE PAST

4.3 ... LOMOND SNOWSTORM, SUNDOG, JONBOY

4.2 ... SHUGGEE, GODBER.1

4.1 ... HILLBILLY, BARRY, EMMET22 ... ... ... ... ---average for 1659-2014---
4.0 ... JEFF.C  ... ... ... ... ---average for 1801-1900---
 

3.9 ... POLAR GAEL ... ... ... ... ---average for 1701-1800---
3.8 ... JOHN BADRICK

3.7 ... GEOFF.W

3.6 ...

3.5 ... THUNDERSNOW DAYS

3.4 ... ... ... ... ... ---average for 1659-1700---
..

2.5 ... GREENLAND1080

--0.5 ... ... ... ... ... third coldest 1676
--0.7 ... ROBBIE GARRETT ... ... ... ... second coldest 2010
--0.8 ... ... ... ... ... coldest December 1890

-10.8 ... lowest daily mean 25th 1796

_______________________________________________

 

106 on-time forecasts, and 3 more were one day late #

 median still 5.6 C

Edited December 1, 2015 by Roger J Smith
added three late entries

[m1chaels]

Haven't taken part in the CET competition since last winter- and now I can't see the December  thread - where is it?

[Roger J Smith]

Look in the new winter discussion forum. It was moved over there.

[J10]

From the other thread. -

December 2015 Scores

Now that 9.7c has been confirmed by the Met Office.I can put the scores up, with the revised scoring system. (which is explained in more detail in the Rules thread.)

However the changes are made to :-
1. Reflect total scores more than average scores.
2. Better reward those who have some very good punts and some bad ones, rather than those who are say always say 0.7c out, but never get any spot on.
3. Change the accuracy system to give extra to those who are closer in a month like this, as opposed to a "normal month" when everyone is within 1.0c
4. Finally to give a standardised top score of 500, to try to make the scores mean something a bit more concrete.
I will continue to do the old scoring method behind the scenes, to see if there is much difference in the methods.

Excel (2007) format -> Dec 2015 cet New.xlsx
PDF  Format -> Dec 2015 cet New.pdf

Scores the Top 3 in all categories are.
1. IHaveNoTrueFriendsNow! (formerly Craig Evans) who was 0.7c under
2. Roger J Smith who was 2.3c under
3. March Blizzard who was 2.5c under

Stats Zone
In terms of statistical analysis, late entrants did better, as they were able to see that December was looking a mild month.
This can be seen with a correlation of - 0.29 and that the later quartiles all did far better than the first quartile entries.

Dec 2015 cet New.pdf

Dec 2015 cet New.xlsx

Edited March 28, 2016 by J10

[Roger J Smith]

Table of entries for CET forecast competition Jan 2016 (with selected means and extremes)

11.6 .. ... ... ... warmest daily CET mean (3rd, 1932 and 23rd, 1834)

9.9 ... BACKTRACK

9.5 ... I.HAVE.NO.TRUE.FRIENDS.NOW

9.2 ... CARL46WREXHAM

8.5 ...

8.0 ..
7.9
7.8
7.7
7.6
7.5 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... warmest January (1916)
7.4
7.3 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... second warmest (1796 & 1921)
7.2 ... WEATHER26, SUMMER SUN, CHRISBELL-NOT-THEWEATHERMAN
7.1 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... fourth warmest (1834)

7.0 ... SUMMER OF 95 ... ... ... ... fifth warmest, and warmest since 1921 (2007)
6.9 ... BLAST FROM THE PAST
6.8 ... PEGG24, CHEZWEATHER (+2d)
6.7 ... STEVE.B, COLDEST WINTER
6.6 ... ED STONE, I.REMEMBER.ATLANTIC.252
6.5 ... MUD_ERROR, RELATIVISTIC STING JET
6.4 ... SUMMER BLIZZARD, FOZFOSTER
6.3 ... VIRTUALSPHERE, MARCH BLIZZARD. DITCH(+1d)
6.2 ... IGLOO
6.1 ... ALWAYS EXPECT RAIN, SLEETY

6.0 ... POLAR GAEL, THE PIT
5.9 ... STARGAZER, MR MAUNDER, STEF, M1CHAELS
5.8 ... HARVE, REEF
5.7 .. LARGER THAN AVERAGE HOBO
5.6 .. RAVELIN, THUNDERSNOWDAYS (+2d)
5.5 .. CONGLETON HEAT, SUNDOG, MARK4, SNOWRAY, DUNCAN McALISTER
5.4 .. DON, EVENING THUNDER, WOOLLYMUMMY (+2d)
5.3 .. BLUE_SKIES_DO_I_SEE, SYED2878
5.2 .. DR HOSKING, BORN.FROM.THE.VOID, ADERYN COCH, FEB1991BLIZZARD
5.1 .. DANCERWITHWINGS, CORRIGAN87, STEWFOX, FROZE WERE THE DAYS

5.0 .. ESSEX EASTERLY, MULZY, STATIONARY FRONT, GAEL_FORCE, GREAT PLUM, J10
4.9 .. LAKIGIGAR, THUNDERBOLT_ VILLAGE PLANK (+2d)
4.8 .. ROGER J SMITH, WEATHER-HISTORY, MARCUS71, CHIONOMANIAC

4.7 .. DIAGONAL RED LINE, COSTA DEL FAL, NORRANCE, KENT CLOUD, DAVEHSUG, MIDLANDS ICE AGE
4.6 .. MARK N, DAVID SNOW, MAN WITH BEARD ... ... ... --- average 2001-15 ---

4.5 .. DAMIANSLAW
4.4 .. BOBD29 ... ... ... ... --- average 1981-2010 ----- and also 2015 CET
4.3 .. EASY-OASY, NIGERIAN PRINCE
4.2 .. CREWE COLD, ART DE MOLE, CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE, SINGULARITY, GODBER1 (+1d) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... --- average 1971-2000 -----
4.1 .. GEOFF.W, ATLANTIC FLAMETHROWER

4.0 .. SIMSHADY, DR(S)NO, AWD, CHRIS.R
3.9 .. JEFF.C, SNOWMAN ... ... ... ... --- average 1901-2000 ----
3.8 .. TIMMYTOUR, MOFFAT ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... --- average 1961-1990 -----
3.7 ..
3.6 ...BARRY
3.5 ..
3.4 ..
3.3 ... JONBOY (+1d) ... ... ... -- average 1659-2015 ----- (3.253 is the exact figure)
3.2 .. MARK BAYLEY

3.1 .. DANIEL* , DUNSTABLE SNOW

3.0 ... ... ... ... --- average 1801-1900 ----
2.9 .. ROLLO ... ... ... ... --- average 1701-1800 ----
2.8 ..
2.7
2.6 ... ... ... ... --- average 1659-1700 ----
2.5 .. NN2013
2.4 .. --- average 1760-1839 --- (the longest interval for which this was maintained)
2.3 ..

2.2 ..
2.1 ...
2.0 ...
1.9 ..
1.8 .. SEABREEZE86 (scroll down, one lower forecast -2.2)
1.7 ...
1.6 ...
1.5 ...
1.4 ... coldest past 28 yrs (2010) -- tied 64th coldest with 1744
1.3 ...
1.2 ...
1.1 ..

1.0 ...
0.9 ...
0.8 ... ... ... coldest past 31 yrs (1985, 1987) -- tied joint 41st coldest with 1768.
0.7 ...
0.6 ...
0.5 ...
0.4 ...
0.3 ...
0.2 ...
0.1 ...

0.0 ... ... ... four tied at 21st coldest (1660, 1667,1694,1698)
-0.1 ... ... ... twentieth coldest (1823)
-0.2 ... ... ... nineteenth coldest (1830)
-0.3 ... ... ... eighteenth coldest (1820)
-0.4 ... ... ... seventeenth coldest, and last subzero January (1979)
-0.5
-0.6 ... ... ... sixteenth coldest (1784)
-0.7 ... ... ... fifteenth coldest (1879)
-0.8 ... ... ... fourteenth coldest (1763)
-0.9 ... ... ... thirteenth coldest (1780)

-1.0 ... ... ... twelfth coldest (1695)
-1.1
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4 ... ... ... eleventh coldest (1940)
-1.5 ... ... ... tied for eighth coldest (1709, 1838, 1881)
-1.6 ... ... ... seventh coldest (1776) ... six days end of this month were all record low CET values
-1.7
-1.8
-1.9

-2.0 ... ... ... sixth coldest (1716)
-2.1 ... ... ... fifth coldest, and coldest of 20th century (1963)
-2.2 ... GREENLAND 1080
-2.3
-2.4
-2.5
-2.6
-2.7
-2.8 ... ... ... fourth coldest (1740)
-2.9 ... ... ... third coldest (1814)

-3.0 ... ... second coldest (1684)
-3.1 ... coldest January or month (1795)

-7.7 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean past 30 yrs (12th, 1987)
-8.4 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean in past 148 yrs (23rd, 1963)

-- this was the coldest day in any month and in any Jan since -9.3 on 4 Jan 1867)

-11.9 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean, 20th 1838

_______________________________________________________________________________

101 forecasts so far, 3 marked (+1d) are one day late, four marked (+2d) are two days late, and median value remains 5.1 ... three are above previous record maximum, one is cold enough to become 5th coldest on record. Will be adding later forecasts as they appear.

A little more than half the field are between 4.2 and 5.9 ... almost half are between 4.6 and 5.4.

[Roger J Smith]

C.E.T. forecasts for February 2016 -- Table of entries with selected data

12.4 ... ... ... ... ... warmest Feb day (mean temp) 4th Feb 2004

10.0 .. LETTUCING GUTTED (was ... and ... also ...)
9.6 ... IGLOO

7.9 ... PROLONGED.SNOWLOVER ... ... ... ... warmest month of Feb 1779
7.5 ... ... ... ... ... second warmest month of Feb 1869
7.3 ... ... ... ... ... tied third warmest month of Feb 1990 and 1998

7.2 ... ... ... ... ... fifth warmest month of Feb 1794

7.0 ... BACKTRACK##

6.8 ... M1CHAELS

6.6 ... TIMMYTOUR

6.5 ... THUNDERBOLT_

6.4 ... ... ... ... ... 2011 CET

6.3 ...

6.2 ... SYED2878, DUNSTABLE SNOW ... ... ... ... 2014 CET
6.1 ... CHIONOMANIAC

6.0 ... RELATIVISTIC STINGJET

5.9 ... JASON.M

5.8 ... FOZFOSTER, STEVE.B, COSTA DEL FAL

5.7 ... MARK.4

5.6 ... CARL46WREXHAM, DAVEHSUG

5.5 ... JOGGS, ED STONE, THE PIT, GAEL_FORCE, FEB1991BLIZZARD#

5.4 ... COLD.COMFORT, SUMMER BLIZZARD

5.3 ... MARCH, I.REMEMBER.ATLANTIC.252, REEF

5.2 ... COLDEST WINTER, SNOWRAY, FROZE WERE THE DAYS, DON, SINGULARITY

5.1 ... SUMMER SUN, STEWFOX, STEF

5.0 ... DR HOSKING, MUD_ERROR, J.10, STARGAZER##

4.9 ... JVENGE, DITCH, EVENING THUNDER

4.8 ... WEATHER26, CONGLETON.HEAT, BLUE_SKIES_DO_I_SEE, MIDLANDS ICE AGE,

... ... ... BORN.FROM.THE.VOID, DAMIANSLAW
 

4.7 ... PEGG24, ALEXIS.J9, CORRIGAN.87, MARCH BLIZZARD

4.6 ... ALWAYS.EXPECT.RAIN

4.5 ... LAKIGIGAR, MAN WITH BEARD, NORRANCE, DAVID SNOW ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ---mean for 2001-2015 and 1986-2015---
 

4.4 ... LARGER THAN AVERAGE HOBO, STATIONARY FRONT, ROGER J SMITH ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .... ---mean 1981-2010---
 

4.3 ... THUNDERSNOW.DAYS, MULZY

4.2 ... BARRY, MARK BAYLEY ... ... ... ---mean for 1971-2000---
 

4.1 ... RAVELIN, MR MAUNDER, ADERYN COCH, DUNCAN McALISTER

4.0 ... POLAR GAEL, DANCER WITH WINGS ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ---mean for 1801-1900 and 1901-2000 also for 2015---

3.9 ... MP-R ... ... ...  ---mean for 1659-2015---
 

3.8 ... SIMSHADY, CHRIS.R ... ... ... ---mean for 1961-1990 and 1701-1800 and also for 2012---

3.7 ... DR(S)NO, EASY-OASY, ATLANTIC.FLAMETHROWER

3.6 ... GODBER.1, WEATHER-HISTORY, JIMBEN

3.5 ... LEWISIAN LASS, CUMBRIAN BLIZZARD

3.4 ... CONNOR BAILEY DEGNAN

3.2 ... DAGGERS ... ... ... ... 2013 CET
3.1 ... JONBOY

3.0 ... SUNDOG
2.9 ... JEFF.C ... ... ... ... ---mean for 1659-1700---

2.8 ... GEOFF.W, CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE

2.7 ... VIRTUALSPHERE

2.6 ... DANIEL*

2.2 ... *SUB*ZERO*

0.7 ... SLEETY

-1.1 ... ... ... fifth coldest month of Feb, coldest in recent years 1986
-1.6 ... ... ... fourth coldest month of Feb 1740
-1.7 ... ... ... third coldest month of Feb 1855
-1.8 ... ... ... second coldest month of Feb 1895
-1.9 ... ... coldest month of Feb 1947

-2.4 ... highest daily extreme min (29th 1904)
-2.8 ... highest daily extreme min, not leap year day (27th, 1929)

-8.8 ... coldest Feb day (mean temp) 9th Feb 1816

_____________________________________________________________________________________

90 on-time entries, so far one entry one day late (#) and two at two days late (##)

... the median as well as the most popular choice being 4.8 C.

Later entries will be added (absolute deadline is end of 3rd Feb)

Edited February 2, 2016 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

March 2016 CET forecasts, averages and extremes

14.7 ... Warmest March daily mean (27th, 1777)
 

12.0 ... LETTUCING GUTTED
 

9.2 ... ... ... Warmest March (1957)
9.1 ... ... ... 2nd warmest March (1938)
8.4 ... ... ... 3rd warmest March (1997)
8.3 ... ... ... 4th warmest March (1948,1990, 2012)
8.2 ... ... ... 7th warmest March and warmest before 20th century (1750, tied with 1961)
7.8 ... TIMMYTOUR

7.6 ... ... ... 2014 CET
7.5 ... STEF

7.3 ... POLAR GAEL

7.2 ... WEATHER26

7.1 ... MAPANTZ

7.0 ... CONGLETON HEAT

6.9 ...

6.8 ... I.REMEMBER.ATLANTIC.252, STARGAZER

6.7 ... MARCH

6.6 ... SUMMER BLIZZARD ... ... mean of 1981-2010 and 1986-2015

6.5 ... SUMMER SUN, REEF ... ... mean of 21st century (2001-2015)
6.4 ... ... ... ... 2015 CET

6.3 ... BOBD29, ALWAYS EXPECT RAIN, EASY-OASY, ALEXIS J 9 ... ... mean of 1971-2000
6.2 ...

6.1 ... BORN FROM THE VOID

6.0 ... CHRISBELL-NOTTHEWEATHERMAN, THE PIT

5.9 ... ROGER J SMITH, STATIONARY FRONT, MAN WITH BEARD, DAVEHSUG, GAEL_FORCE
 

5.8 ... SEASIDE 60, BLUE_SKIES_DO_I_SEE, FEBRUARY1991BLIZZARD, MR MAUNDER, J-10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... mean of 20th century (1901-2000)
 

5.7 ... DEEP SNOW, STEWFOX, DON, SNOWRAY ... ... ... mean of 1961-1990
 

5.6 ... STEVE.B, COSTA DEL FAL, NORRANCE

5.5 ... IAPENNELL, DR(S)NO, SYED2878, MIDLANDS ICE AGE, WEATHER-HISTORY, ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... SINGULARITY, LARGER THAN AVERAGE HOBO, EVENING THUNDER

5.4 ... RAVELIN, DAMIANSLAW, SEABREEZE86, DAVID SNOW, MULZY

5.3 ... CORRIGAN87, PROLONGED SNOW LOVER,  MARCH BLIZZARD ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... mean of all 357 years (1659-2015)

5.2 ... HILLBILLY, SUNDOG, MARK BAYLEY ... ... mean of 19th century (1801-1900)
 

5.1 ... JONBOY, JAMES (MAMMATUS) WYATT

5.0 ... PEGG24 ... ... ... ... mean of 18th century (1701-1800)
 

4.9 ... DANCER.WITH.WINGS, SEVERE SIBERIAN ICY BLAST, MARK.N

4.8 ... CHRIS.R, ATLANTIC FLAMETHROWER, ROLLO, NIGERIAN PRINCE, GODBER.1

4.7 ... ED STONE
 

4.6 ... CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE ... ... ...  mean of (CET portion of) 17th century (1659-1700)
4.5 ... JEFF.C, ADERYN COCH

4.4 ... SIMSHADY
4.3 ... CARL46WREXHAM

4.2 ... AWD

4.1 ...  GEOFFW

4.0 ... VIRTUALSPHERE

3.8 ... BARRY

3.5 ... DANIEL*

2.8 ... Coldest March of 20th century (1962)

2.7 ... Coldest March since 1892 (2013) ... tied with 1892 and 1784 joint 12th coldest March

1.8 ... ... ... ... 3rd coldest March (1748)
1.2 ... ... ... ... 2nd coldest March (1785)
1.0 ... ... ... ... Coldest March (1674)

1.0 ... ... ... ... Mean of last ten days of March 2013 (22nd-31st)

0.6 ... ... ... ... Mean of the five days 22nd-26th March 2013

-3.9 ... ... ... Coldest March daily mean in last 50 yrs (3rd, 1965)
-6.5 ... ... Coldest March daily mean (13th, 1845)

________________________________________________________________

78 forecasts, median 5.5 C

 

Edited March 1, 2016 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

Editing the above will apparently scramble everything so I cancelled the edit for the following late entrants:

DR_Hosking 7.0

Mark.4 .... 6.1

Duncan McAlister 6.5

Diagonal Red Line ... 5.5

Ditch (+3d) ...... 5.9 (it's in the redirect thread, just noticed it today 13th March)

also apparently I whizzed past Relativistic Sting Jet (not a late forecast) 9.7

now 83 entries, median remains 5.5

Edited March 13, 2016 by Roger J Smith